My Week 11 NFL picks started off with a Thursday night winner in Seattle. For Sunday, I have eight more premium picks loaded up, including three Max Plays. I was 3-0 with Max Plays last weekend, part of a huge +$4,790 return.
Anyone with money on the Bengals at Steelers total in last week’s 36-10 blowout, had a much more vested interest in Cincinnati’s final two drives. Over/Under odds for that divisional tilt opened around 47.5 but UNDER bettors bought it down throughout the week. By the time Bengals’ kicker Randy Bullock booted the opening kickoff, plenty of online betting shops were sitting right on 46, while others had dipped even further to 45 or 45.5.
1.5 to 2 points is a typical range for totals to move during the week, with weather and injury updates often triggering the action. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were one of six games to finish within three points of the closing total in Week 10 but as it stands, 2020 is actually one of the widest Over/Under variance seasons of the past 30 years.
The four seasons with the highest Over/Under variance since 1990 were as follows:
- 1995: 2.4 points per game
- 2002: 2.1 points per game
- 1998: 1.8 points per game
- 2020: 1.7 points per game
It all evens out in the wash, as they say, and the margins listed above are comparable to the typical line movement you could see on any given Sunday. But what about games with high variance? More importantly, what happens the following week when two teams miss the oddsmaker’s mark by a dramatic measure?
Read on for three big-time betting trends that can factor into your Week 11 NFL picks!
Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson has rushed for only one TD this season, well behind the pace he set with a career-high seven in 2019
The three games in Week 10 with the largest point margins from the closing total were the Texans-Browns (-28.5), Bucs-Panthers (+18.5) and Seahawks-Rams (-15.5).
Home teams in the second half of the season are 66% likely to play UNDER following a game where they finished south of the total by more than 24 points. The weather in Cleveland played a massive role in keeping the Texans grounded, but has this week’s total gone too far?
- The past five years, conference home teams with a total of 42 points or greater are 13-1 (93%) UNDER immediately following a game that stayed UNDER by 24-plus points.
The Browns are in a similar scenario as the Texans, but they are facing a non-conference foe. There is also this NFL trend to consider, that could offer value on the OVER.
- Since 2018, home teams are 10-0 OVER following back-to-back games that stayed UNDER by more than 14 points.
Note that the forecast for Sunday calls for showers (100% chance), but only 10-15 mph winds.
Follow @Wunderdog for updates on my Week 11 NFL picks, plus UFC and College Football!
The Rams are off a divisional home win that followed their bye week. Now they’re on the road against a non-divisional foe, which might set up as a letdown spot except A) it’s Monday Night Football and B) it’s against Tom Brady.
With San Francisco on-deck, this is also a divisional sandwich for the Rams, but the record for teams in this exact spot 15-6 ATS (71%). And I will point out that three of the ATS losses were dogs of +5.5 or more. From an Over/Under perspective, check this trend that is 83% all-time.
- Tom Brady is 20-4 OVER in home games with a total of 43 or more, after any game where more than 50 points were scored, and the total was cleared by double-digits.
Free Week 11 NFL Picks
I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. As we countdown towards Sunday, my free Week 11 NFL pick is from the playoff rematch between the Titans and Ravens.
Baltimore finally gets a chance at revenge after getting upset by the Titans in last season’s playoffs, and Tennessee looks much less formidable this time around as it has lost three of its last four following its 34-17 defeat against Indianapolis. Ryan Tannehill went 15 of 27 for 147 yards and a touchdown, and Derrick Henry ran for 103 yards on 19 carries in a losing cause.
The Ravens will be in a foul mood after a listless performance at New England, losing 23-17 on Sunday night. It was Baltimore’s first road loss in 10 games, and Lamar Jackson had just 55 rushing yards on 11 carries.