Football picksNovember 18, 2021

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends and Predictions

Today in my Week 11 NFL betting feature, I’m looking at road favorites off a bye, a prediction for the Dolphins vs. Jets, and a perfect trend that just keeps winning.

week 11 NFL betting trends for sunday

Bengals RB Joe Mixon scored two touchdowns in a Week 9 loss to the Browns, and will look to punish a Raiders D that is 27th against the run

Week 11 NFL Betting Angle: Road Faves Off a Bye

Nearly half the road warriors on the Week 11 NFL betting card are favored, but the Bengals are the only one from that group coming off a bye week. Cinci (5-4 SU) went into the break off back-to-back losses for the first time all season, and got lit up for 34 and 41 points in those losses. Now that the defense has regrouped and offense has had a chance to refocus, can the Bengals turn back into that team that many were calling AFC North winners in Week 7?

Cincinnati at Las Vegas
Line: Bengals -1 and O/U 49.5

  • The Bengals have covered four-straight against the Raiders and six of the past seven since realignment.
  • Cinci is #4 in yards per play (6.0), #7 in red zone (67%) and #9 in scoring (26.2 PPG).
  • The Raiders offense also averages 6.0 yards per play but ranks #23 on 3rd down (36.9%) and #26 in the red zone (52.9%).

Vegas (5-4 SU) took its bye in Week 8. Since then they lost 23-16 in New York and 41-14 at home to the look-who’s-back Kansas City Chiefs. There is little time left for excuses with this team. If they packed up their bags on the 2021 season and went home, no one could blame them. It’s been a tumultuous few months — the kind of stuff they were hoping to have left behind in Oakland. But right now they have the look of an imposter. One of the nine AFC teams currently above .500 that you just KNOW will not be there come January.

  • Cinci is 0-5 SU/ATS off a bye week the past five seasons (average line was +6.3).
  • Road favorites (any line) off a regular season bye week are 105-75 ATS (58%) since 1989.

Four road faves this season are 0-4 ATS off a bye. The Falcons and Saints won straight up but failed to cover. Vegas (Week 9) and Tampa Bay (Week 10) made it look as if they spent the rest week eating bonbons.

  • Recency Bias? Road faves off a bye were 62% ATS from 2002-2010 but since 2018, they have slipped into a 8-15 ATS (35%) divot.
  • Since 2002, small road faves up to -3 points are just 13-19 ATS (41%) off a bye.
  • When two teams meet, both having given up 30+ points in their latest game, and the road team is off a bye, the road team is 14-8 ATS (64%).

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Going into a bye on a two-game slide gives reason for hope. A chance to rebound. Coming out of one in a tailspin, and failing to crack 15 points at home against a D that allows 24.1 per game. That’s a yellow flag. We’ll see on Sunday if the Raiders have any juice left in the tank or if Cinci can take advantage of this spot and get right before next week’s divisional rematch vs. the Steelers.

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Week 11 NFL Betting: Perfect Trend Hits 7-Straight

How `bout them Jaguars, huh? Last week in this space I wrote about the quirky trend taking place this season, where teams coming off a game against the Buffalo Bills are riding a perfect streak against the spread since Week 3.

Jacksonville was “live” in Week 10, strutting into a rivalry game against the Colts that followed an epic upset over Buffalo the week before. The Jags (+10.5) fell back early but responded with more than enough to cover, and the streak is alive!

  • Teams off the Buffalo Bills are 7-0 ATS since Week 3, covering by 3.6 points per game.

Miami at New York Jets
Line: Dolphins -3.5 and O/U 44.5

Joe Flacco is under center for the Jets this week for a Jets (2-7 SU) team that was scorched for 45 points against the Bills. It’s the third time in four weeks New York’s D has surrendered a 40-burger, and that’s only happened four times in the past 30 years. The previous three are 3-1 ATS and two of three home teams actually won straight up, although Miami holds a 6-0-1 ATS advantage in this series.

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For a bigger sample, there is this Week 11 NFL betting trend suggesting the Jets D will get shredded:

  • Home dogs that have given up 30+ points in three of their past four games are a 61% FADE, going 24-37 ATS.

But there are also contrarian Week 11 NFL betting trends to consider that might appeal to the Joe Flacco fan club out of Baltimore. For example:

  • Dogs that are getting outscored by 10+ points per game are 89-45 ATS (66%) after allowing 40-plus points.
  • Conference teams riding an UNDER trend (Miami) are just 30-66 ATS (31%) in tightly lined games.

Bad teams like Miami have turned the corner in the second half before, and sometimes a home win like the one they pulled against Baltimore is all it takes. Tua Tagovailoa (finger) said he’s good to go, and matchups against New York’s #32 ranked D don’t get much better. But you know what they say about betting against win streaks (you can only lose once).

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends: Computer Predictions

For the latest computer picks on every NFL game, check out my weekly NFL Football Game Matchups. Straight-up computer projections, ATS projections, public consensus betting data, even scoring forecasts that can help with Over/Under betting.

These computer-derived matchups do NOT represent my official picks, as there is a lot more analysis required (injuries, trends, situations and other technical analysis). If you want my full analysis, detailed write-ups, and official picks, be sure to get my email newsletter.

Computer projections for Miami (-3.5, O/U 44.5) at New York

Miami Dolphins: 23.450 points (55% likely to win SU)
New York Jets: 21.550 points (45% likely to win SU)

The computer gives a slight edge to the Jets and leans OVER the current posted total. Check the latest NFL odds here and don’t miss my premium Week 11 NFL picks.