Sports picksNovember 12, 2020

Week 10 NFL Trends and Betting Tips

My Week 10 NFL preview has key trends and betting tips to help you get your head in the game for Sunday’s big matchups.

Week 10 NFL Betting Tip: The OVER is 20-7 (74%) this season when home teams are favored in the 3- to 10-point range, and the total is 49 or greater.

In the final seconds of the Panthers-Chiefs thriller from Arrowhead on Sunday, NFL Network’s Scott Hanson pointed out that 128 of 256 games had been played. In other words, it was the exact midpoint of the 2020 season.

There are a lot of ways to describe this unusual season but let’s face it, just making it this far with minimal disruptions feels like a victory. Let’s see how the first half of 2020 stacks up to previous years.

  • NFL road dogs are hitting 56% ATS this season, 3% better than their record during the first half of the past 10 seasons.
  • Divisional dogs (home or away) are wining a rate of 65% ATS, their best record in the past decade.

One thing that stood out in Week 9 was the high number of favorites that won straight up but failed to cover. The Chiefs, Steelers, Texans and Patriots added to a list that now includes 26 teams.

  • Through the midpoint of the season, 2020 has set a new record for favorites to win straight up but lose against the spread. The previous high was 24, set in 1997, 1999 and 2012.

One more thing if you are looking at big chalk, but are reluctant to lay the points. The OVER is 19-7 (73%) this year in games where the fave wins straight up but fails to cover. Big home faves this week include the Steelers, Packers and Saints. Food for thought.

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Week 10 NFL trends and expert handicapping tips

Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders returned to a Saints lineup that ranks No. 1 in third down conversions (51.4%) and No. 4 in scoring (30.5 PPG)

Week 10 TNF Tip Pool

Indianapolis at Tennessee
Line: Pick em and O/U 48.5

The Indianapolis Colts are coming into this game off a 24-10 home loss to Baltimore. Indy had won five of six before the Ravens, but the level of competition was suspect. Among those wins were victims such as the Jets, Bengals and Lions.

Tennessee ended its two-game slide with a convincing 24-17 win over the Bears. That score flatters the Bears, who trailed 17-0 at one point, and 24-3 in the fourth quarter. Tennessee held Chicago to just 56 yards rushing but they only controlled the football for 26:06. Derrick Henry had 68 yards on 21 touches, including one for 26 yards.

  • Divisional road teams off an ATS loss are a 61% UNDER play on Thursday Night Football. The UNDER is 2-0 this season and 6-2 since the start of 2019.
  • In the second half of the season, the UNDER is 14-7 (67%) when a home team is coming off a win in which they lost the battle of possession.

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NFL Betting Trends: Week 10 Bye Focus

NFL teams planning to use their bye week for a specific purpose this year, had to come up with a backup plan, just in case. With random Covid breakouts, there was no guarantee that your scheduled bye would come as planned, and even if your team stayed healthy, the league holds the power.

Just look at some of the alterations from the original 2020 NFL schedule.

Week 5: Broncos at Patriots game moved to Week 6

Week 6: Chiefs at Bills game moved from Thursday to Monday. The Jets at Dolphins game from Week 10 was also moved here, part of a four-way juggling act involving the Chargers, Jaguars, Broncos and Dolphins.

Week 7: Jags at Chargers (from Week 8)

Week 8: Chargers at Broncos (from Week 11)

As we move into Week 10, here is a snapshot off every team that is either off a bye, on a bye, or looking ahead to a much needed break.

Teams off a Bye: Bengals, Browns, Rams and Eagles

Bye Week Teams: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets

Bye On-deck: Bills, Giants, 49ers and Bears

Philadelphia at New York Giants
Line: Eagles -3 and O/U 44.5

Philadelphia needed a bye week as bad as anyone. From the O-Line, to the receiving corps, the tight ends and running backs, this offense has been through the ringer. They’re not going to get any sympathy from a Giants team that lost Saquon Barkley in Week 2, but the Eagles don’t want a shoulder to cry on, they just want another ‘W’.

  • The Eagles edged New York 22-21 when they met on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. Off a close game, divisional road faves are 24-8 ATS (75%) in the rematch the past five years. The OVER is 23-9 (72%) and this angle was live in Week 7 between the Browns and Bengals, a game that finished 19 points above the posted total.
  • Since 1999, the Eagles are 36-23 ATS with a rest advantage over their opponent. All four coaches during this extended period had an ATS record of 60% or better.

NFC East teams are generally a fade at home, going 18-33 ATS the past couple years. The Giants are 3-9 ATS in that span and in two of three covers, they were favored.

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