My Week 10 NFL picks are loaded up and ready to fire for Sunday, with seven plays listed at the site. My expert handicapping tips hit 60% last week and I’ve had six of nine winning weeks on the season. Included in this week’s picks are three Max Plays, so let’s not waste anymore time.
In this week’s NFL betting feature, I have some Over/Under betting data and a free pick from the Seahawks at Rams. I’ve also highlighted an angle from the Chargers – Dolphins matchup that is 63% against the spread.
- NFL Totals through Week 9: 70-55-8 O/U, which equates to the OVER hitting 56%.
- The only two weeks with more UNDERS were Weeks 6 and 7.
- Primetime totals through Week 9 = 10 OVERS, 16 UNDERS and 4 PUSHES (61% UNDER).
The three most recent primetime games were Saints at Bucs, Patriots at Jets and Colts at Titans. Very few people would have guessed that Drew Brees and Tom Brady would produce the lowest net score out of those three matchups, but the timing lines up with Over/Under trends from the past decade.
- Since 2011, primetime games have played OVER at a rate of 53% in the second half of the season.
The likelihood is that the low, 61% UNDER rate from the first half of the season will start to increase. It doesn’t mean that value for UNDER bettors is lost, you just have to be very selective.
Visit my Matchups section for more Week 10 NFL trends and betting tips!
Over the past five seasons, my NFL Max Plays have hit 59% a +$32,730 gain!
The Detroit Lions (3-5) are coming into this game off back-to-back lashings by the Colts and Vikings. Detroit allowed 75 points the past two weeks, breaking into the Top 5 this season for points allowed in back-to-back games. Here’s the worst of the worst:
- Cowboys: 87 points allowed to Seahawks-Browns in Week 3-4.
- Falcons: 78 points allowed to Seahawks-Cowboys to open the season.
- Raiders: 77 points allowed to Chiefs-Bucs in Week 5-7 (bye in-between).
- Texans: 77 points allowed to Titans-Packers in Week 6-7.
- Lions: 75 points allowed to Colts-Vikings in Week 8-9.
In general, NFL teams suffering from Swiss cheese syndrome are a 57% ATS fade. They have not posted a winning record since 2011, following two games where 75-plus points were allowed. The combined record for these porous defenders in that span is 38-72-1 ATS (35%) and the recent record for home favorites is 6-15-1 ATS (29%).
Another thing to keep in mind is that when facing a subpar time of possession team, Detroit’s record after a bad loss is 21-9 OVER (70%). There is also this nugget, hitting 15-1 OVER the past three years:
- When the total is greater than 40, the OVER is 33-10 (77%) between two teams that are each coming off a divisional loss.
Cue the mad waiver wire rush by fantasy football fans, looking to Alex Smith as their savior!
Free NFL Pick for Week 10
I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. As we countdown towards Sunday, my free Week 10 NFL pick is from the NFC West.
Game: Seattle Seahawks (269) @ Los Angeles Rams (270)
Time: Sunday 11/15 4:25 PM Eastern
Odds: Rams -2 and O/U 55.5
Seattle is well-coached and a great bounce-back team. Since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, the Hawks are 33-15-4 ATS following a straight-up loss. QB Russell Wilson (28 TDs, 8 INTS) leads one of the best offenses in the NFL that is third in total yards and tops in points scored (34.3 per game).
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Low Margin of Error
This segment focuses on teams that are repeatedly losing games by a small margin. In a league where teams are only guaranteed 16 games per season, leaving too many fish in the water won’t earn you too many seats at the playoff table come January.
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Through nine weeks, there are six teams with an average margin of defeat smaller than 2.3 points per game. Two of them have winning records. The other four are at least two games below .500 and all four have registered multiple losses by a field goal or less.
- Falcons (3-6 SU): -0.89 scoring margin
- Bears (5-4 SU): -1.33
- Raiders (5-3): -1.38
- Chargers (2-6): -1.38
- Panthers (3-6): -1.78
- Vikings (3-5): -2.12
The Chargers lead the pack with three narrow losses. Week 2 against the Chiefs was their first setback, then Week 5 at New Orleans. Adding to the list was a Week 8 loss in Denver, 30-31, and although last week’s 31-26 defeat to Raiders doesn’t technically qualify, the morale in this group must be starting to wane.
Yes, it has been a rough year for rookie QB Justin Herbert but there is hope on the horizon. Once a team has missed the cut on this many close games, they start getting labelled as perennial losers. Oddsmakers adjust and according to my data, the record for these teams in the back-half of the season is 63% against the spread.
The Chargers at Dolphins is the first such game of 2020 and Over/Under bettors may also note that the UNDER in this profile is 68% effective. The current streak is at eight-straight UNDERS.