Football picksNovember 11, 2021

Week 10 NFL Betting Trends and Predictions

My Week 10 NFL betting trends features a computer prediction from Tampa Bay at Washington, and some fresh 40-burger trends from the grill. Also, what are teams learning from the Buffalo Bills, and how can you profit from it this weekend?

Week 10 NFL betting trends

Nick Chubb has battled leg injuries this year but is still on pace to match career highs for both scoring (12 TDs) and rushing yards (1,494)


Week 10 NFL Betting Trends to Bank On

If there’s one thing bettors have come rely on in the NFL over the years, it’s to expect the unexpected. Week 9 had a healthy dose of randomness, from upsets to overtime and everything in-between, so let’s see if we can make some sense of it all.

Bacon Double 40-Burgers

Indianapolis over the Jets 45-30: Jonathan Taylor rushed 19 times for 172 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts scored 40-plus points twice last season and went 0-2 ATS the following week. Both games were at home and both games stayed UNDER.

  • Since 2004, the Colts are 4-13-2 ATS (24%) after scoring 40-plus points. 13 of 19 (68%) of the games stayed UNDER the total.
  • Road teams like Jacksonville (2-6 SU) are 45-18 ATS in the second half of the season when coming off a home win.

Indy is finishing a three-game home stand and needs to seal this important divisional win. They have at Buffalo on-deck, a playoff revenge game, so they might look to build a lead and then burn the clock. The Jags are 10-1-1 ATS their past 12 vs. the Colts and if the backdoor is left swinging open, you know Urban Meyer’s going to come creeping in.

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Cleveland over Cinci 41-16: Nick Chubb averaged 9.0 rushing yards per carry, bulldozing the Bengals for two scores in a statement game against their state rival. The Browns (5-4 SU) now travel into Foxboro and since 2001, they are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS vs. New England. Cleveland lost all five visits to Gillette Stadium straight up (1-4 ATS), scoring 17 points or less four times. Things have changed considerably with both of these teams. Can the Browns shake the curse against their old coach?

  • Road dogs off a blowout win when they were also getting points have a 35-11 ATS (76%) record with a win percentage around .500 (Browns = .555 WP).

The Patriots return from a two-game road sweep against the Chargers and Panthers. New England (5-4) has won three-straight and four of five, but wins over Houston, the Jets and Panthers aren’t overly impressive. The Browns are 2-6 SU and 6-1-1 UNDER on the road after scoring 40 points, and their wins over Houston, Chicago and Denver don’t say a lot either.

Bill Belichick has a 40-24 UNDER (61%) record vs. undisciplined teams and the Browns are #28 in the NFL with 66.9 penalty yards per game. Each of these teams is Top 12 in defensive DVOA. With the total set at just 45.5, the oddsmaker here could be signaling that a lower scoring slugfest is on tap.

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Quick Hits: Week 10 NFL Betting Trends

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Line: Colts -10.5 and O/U

We already talked about this matchup once but there is another quirky trend that needed its own space.

  • NFL teams that faced the Buffalo Bills last week are 6-1 ATS (86%)

Pittsburgh opened against Buffalo and after three quarters of slugging it out, Pittsburgh ripped the hosts for 17 in the fourth quarter. Next week: Steelers lost 26-17 to the Raiders (0-1 ATS)

Week 2, Miami got stoned 35-0 by Buffalo. Next week: Dolphins covered in Vegas (1-1 ATS)

Week 3, Washington was lit up 43-21 at the Ralph. Next week: Team beats the Falcons 34-30 (2-1 ATS)

Week 4: Another shutout, this time 41-0, Bills over Texans. Next week: Houston gives the Patriots a scare as 8-point home dogs (3-1 ATS)

Week 5, Bills top the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead. Next week: KC dominates The Team 31-13 (4-1 ATS)

Week 6, the Bills slipped (literally) against Tennessee, 34-31. Next week: Titans dismantle Kansas City, 27-3 (5-1 ATS)

Week 8, after Buffalo’s bye, they completed the sweep over Miami, 26-11. Next week: Dolphins (-5.5) snap a seven-game losing streak with a 17-9 win vs. Houston

  • Teams that turn the ball over five times in the NFL are 49-401 ATS (11%), and Miami bucked that trend with last week’s win over the Texans.

58-percent of the public are on the Colts for this game and my computer predictions show Indianapolis winning by 10-11 points. Buffalo is a great team so maybe teams that play them, whether they win or lose, or getting some sort of inspiration and playing harder the next week. I don’t know, but this Week 10 NFL betting trend is riding a perfect 6-0 ATS streak and you know what they say about betting on a streak? You can only lose once!

Read my Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers preview !


Week 10 NFL Betting Trends: Computer Predictions

For the latest computer picks on every NFL game, check out my weekly NFL Football Game Matchups. Straight-up computer projections, ATS projections, public consensus betting data, even scoring forecasts that can help with Over/Under betting.

These computer-derived matchups do NOT represent my official picks, as there is a lot more analysis required (injuries, trends, situations and other technical analysis). If you want my full analysis, detailed write-ups, and official picks, be sure to get my email newsletter.

Computer projections for Tampa Bay (-10, O/U 51.5) at Washington

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 30.012 points (80% likely to win SU)
Washington Football Team: 20.488 points (20% likely to win SU)

The computer gives a slight edge to Washington and leans UNDER the current posted total. Check the latest NFL odds here and don’t miss my premium Week 10 NFL picks.

Also remember to check out my Tom Brady betting trends. There are some angles “live” on this game that you don’t want to miss.

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