Football picksJune 10, 2021

Titans Super Bowl Odds Heat up on Julio Jones

The Tennessee Titans Super Bowl odds took a booster shot this week when they landed one of  this NFL offseason’s top targets. Julio Jones became the newest Titan, joining A.J. Brown and Josh Reynolds, in exchange for a pair of draft picks. In his prime, Jones was a superstar but his numbers have declined in recent years and when you factor in Tennessee’s offseason departures, this looks more like a lateral move than a major step forward.

Titans Super Bowl odds with Julio Jones

Jones posted three seasons in Atlanta with more than 1,500 receiving yards and he leads the Falcons’ all-time list with 12,896 yards on 848 receptions

Tennessee Titans Super Bowl Odds

The NFL’s trade market for big name receivers has been heating up over the past couple years. On Sunday, Julio Jones became the latest primetime star to relocate, going to Tennessee in exchange for a second- and fourth-round pick. Tennessee will also grab a sixth-round pick in the deal, and Titans Super Bowl odds jumped to +2500.

Tennessee is paying back at 12 to 1 to win the AFC, sixth behind the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Browns and Broncos.

Titans Super Bowl odds were originally listed at 33 to 1 in my NFL Offseason Betting HQ. Their power ranking is 12th and poised to climb into the Top 10 by Week 1, but there are several factors to consider. First of all, Jones was targeted by Tennessee to fill the gaps left by Corey Davis (Jets) and Adam Humphries (Bucs). Davis posted 984 yards and five touchdowns last year on 92 targets (65 catches). Humphries had 23 catches on 35 targets for 228 yards and two majors. Josh Reynolds (Rams) was signed in free agency and slotted to fill Davis’ shoes, opposite A.J. Brown, and the new trio could certainly match the former’s numbers, but given Jones’ recent history, this can’t be considered anything more than a lateral move at the moment.

Jones only played in nine games last season, with chronic foot issues. His yards, TDs, first downs, longs, receptions and yards per game are all in a steady decline the past three years. The Titans do have a decent corps of backup receivers that will benefit from Jones’ experience, but this offense is still going to start and end on the ground game.

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Tennessee Titans Odds

I’m tracking NFL offseason betting odds for you throughout the summer. Every time a new team preview is added or the futures market takes a significant swing, I’ll post on social media and you can stay up to date as we countdown to kickoff.

For preseason power rankings and Titans Super Bowl odds, visit my NFL Team Previews HQ!

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9.5 UN -130
Pre-draft NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9.5 UN -150
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.7
Odds to win the Division: Even Money (1st)

The Titans were +110 to win the AFC South, trailing the Colts by just 10 cents. Following the trade for Julio Jones, Tennessee and Indianapolis (+110) have flip-flopped and they remain well ahead of the Jaguars (+800) and Texans (+1400). Considering that divisional odds have only moved 10 cents on the moneyline the past two months, doesn’t that make the +800 jump on Titans Super Bowl odds seem a little extreme?

Tennessee Titans Trends

The Titans won the AFC South last year with a 11-5 SU record. They were 9-7 for four consecutive seasons before that, tying them with the Los Angeles Rams (47-33) for the eighth-best regular season record over the past five years.

  • Tennessee is 46-29-5 OVER (61%) in all games the past five years, the No. 1 highest OVER-percentage in the NFL since 2016.
  • Since 2007, the Titans are 10-2-2 ATS in their first road game of the season. That includes a record of 6-1-1 ATS the past eight years, and 4-1 SU/ATS when their first road game occurs beyond Week 1.
  • After a blowout home win by double-digits, the Titans are fade material, going 3-13 ATS since 2009.
  • The Titans have a record of 22 OVERS, 12 UNDERS (65%) and a couple pushes in non-conference games since 2012.

Tennessee draws the NFC West this year for its interconference rotation. They open against Arizona and host San Francisco in Week 16. For road games, Tennessee is at Seattle in Week 2 and at Los Angeles Rams Week 9. Note that when the Titans met the NFC West in 2017, three of four games went OVER but the average Over/Under odds were just 44.2 points. By comparison, the average Titans total in 2020 was 50.8 points, an increase of +6.6 points per game.

Titans Bottom Line

The Titans rushed the ball on 50.3% of their offensive plays last year, third behind the Ravens (55%) and Patriots (51.3%) — a pair of teams running more out of necessity than proficiency. Tennessee ranked second in yards per carry (5.0), yards per game (161.2) and rushing TDs per game (1.5), and bellcow RB Derrick Henry is set to lead the charge once again.

Henry was the back-to-back rushing leader in 2019-20 and defenses will stack the box, gameplanning on how to stop him more than ever this year. Will it help?

  • Top 10 Rushing DVOA in 2020, according to Football Outsiders: Bucs, Saints, Rams, Bears, Steelers, Falcons, Seahawks, Jets, Colts, Niners
  • All 10 of those teams ranked inside the top 14 in terms of opponent rushing yards per game, allowing 114 yards or less.
  • The Titans went 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in nine games against teams that were allowing fewer than 114 yards rushing.
  • The OVER was 6-1-2 (86%) in those games, with each team averaging just over 28 points per game.

Henry has had five seasons of high-productivity rushing and his greatest success in terms of betting value was against mid-ranked rushing defenses that allowed between 90-125 yards per game.

  • Since Henry joined the team, Tennessee is 30-19 ATS (61%) against mid-ranked rushing D.

Tennessee averaged 30.1 carries per game for 137 yards, out-yarding opponents on the ground by 36.5 yards. In the past 30 years, teams that win the rushing battle by more than 36.5 yards are 74.9% against the spread, including a 119-40 ATS (74.8%) record in 2020.

Circle the following dates on Tennessee’s schedule this year vs. mid-ranked rushing D:

Week 1 vs. Arizona
Week 4 at New York Jets
Week 6 vs. Buffalo
Week 7 vs. Kansas City
Week 15 at Pittsburgh
Week 16 vs. San Francisco
Week 17 vs. Miami

If Henry, Brown, Jones and QB Ryan Tannehill are healthy at the time, the betting value this year on Tennessee will be greater in those matchups than it is with the Titans Super Bowl odds.