Football picksOctober 15, 2020

Week 6 NFL Trends and Betting Tips

When sorting through the list of Week 6 NFL trends, there is a definite theme. Scoring was up in a handful of last week’s games, and it triggered a few high-percentage angles worth sharing.

The Week 6 NFL schedule is serving up a healthy portion of divisional matchups, revenge games, and even some coaching scenarios worth keeping an eye on. We’ll get a chance to see how the Chiefs respond to a loss, how Buffalo works off a short week, and what the Rams can do against some actual competition.

So let’s not waste anymore of your time. Here is my list of Week 6 NFL trends, tips and news you can use.

Week 6 NFL trends including the Texans at Titans and Chiefs at Bills

The Titans are just the 11th team since realignment to convert six of six red zone opportunities

Week 6 NFL Trends: 40 Burgers

As both a coach and analyst, Steve Mariucci has had some great quotes over the years. The one that really stirs my appetite on a Sunday afternoon is when he talks about ’40 Burgers’, and in Week 5 there were enough to feed the whole family.

Here are some scenarios involving games from last week where at least one team scored 40 points. And like any grill master will tell you — with 40 Burgers, it’s better to give than to receive.

New York Jets at Miami
Line: Dolphins -9.5 and O/U 47

The Dolphins (2-3 SU) won only five games in 2019 but three of them were in December. During those wins, Miami scored 37, 38 and 27 points, an average of 34 per game. This season they started with back-to-back divisional matchups vs. the Patriots and Bills, and nobody was shocked when they fell to 0-2. Miami also lost to Seattle in Week 4, but against the Jaguars (1-4 SU) and Niners (2-3 SU), these Fish have looked like Pro Bowlers.

Indeed, the Jets (0-5 SU) are a divisional foe but that’s where the similarities end. Even comparing them to the Jaguars is flattering. And here is the first of our Week 6 NFL trends worth noting:

  • After scoring 40-plus points, the OVER is 10-3 (77%) for a divisional favorite that’s facing a winless team.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 6 NFL trends and betting tips!

Fire up the Grill

Houston at Tennessee
Line: Texans -3 and O/U 53

Tennessee (4-0 SU) put on a show Tuesday night, going 6-for-6 in the red zone during a 42-16 win over the Bills. The Texans (1-4 SU) have scored more points in four consecutive games (16-21-23-30), and finally earned a win Sunday over the beleaguered Jaguars. Interim coach Romeo Crennel has a career .345 win percentage (29-55 SU), and he has been in charge of some horrible offenses. So would the real Houston Texans please stand-up?

Divisional road dogs have been outscored 26-17 when facing a team that scored 40-plus points the previous week. When their coach has a losing record, divisional dogs reduce that margin to just 3.0 points (22.4-19.4). But here’s one from the Week 6 NFL trends that really stands out:

  • The OVER is 22-8 (73%) the past 30 times a team with a winning record was coming off a home dog win.

Follow @Wunderdog for instant updates on my Max Plays!

Primetime NFL Trends, Week 6

The Raiders are off this week following their huge upset win over Kansas City. Of the remaining 40-burger units, all three are playing under the lights in Week 6.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
Line: Rams -3.5 and O/U 51.5

The Rams (4-1 SU) have padded their stats against all four NFC East teams to start the season, averaging 27.2 points.

  • When a potent offense meets a divisional foe that just allowed 40-plus points, the UNDER is 17-6 (74%).

Kansas City at Buffalo
Line: Chiefs -3.5 and O/U 57.5

The Chiefs (4-1 SU) saw their 13-game winning streak come to an end on Sunday, but oddsmakers still had no choice but to make them a road favorite at the Ralph. Buffalo (4-1 SU) didn’t help their cause, getting lit on Tuesday, but coach Sean McDermott’s recent record as an underdog is a healthy 9-3-1 ATS. I should also note that the UNDER in those 13 games is 10-3 (77%).

Any road fave that saw their win streak unceremoniously ended at home by allowing 40-plus points, has a 1-6 ATS record. Countering that, however, is coach Andy Reid’s 21-10-2 ATS (68%) record on Monday Night Football. Included with that nugget is Reid’s 6-1-2 ATS (86%) MNF record with the Chiefs.

The forecast for Buffalo is cloudy, light winds, with temperatures in the 60’s. In other words, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for this total to drop.

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Football picksJanuary 14, 2020

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview

The NFC Championship Game is all set after insane Wild Card and divisional round weekends. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are headed out west to square off with the San Francisco 49ers.

We’ll see how many doubters the Packers still have as they face the cream of the NFC crop. The only doubt for those taking the Niners is whether Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing game can keep up with their own elite running game and defense.

In these two teams’ previous matchup this season, the Niners ran away with it, 37-8. That was also the last time the Packers lost a game. The Niners lost two of their last three regular-season games to the Ravens and Falcons.

One of San Francisco’s defensive staples, Kwon Alexander, returned a week ago from injured reserve and played 25 snaps and looks to play more this week. We’ll see if the 49ers have what it takes to slow down a red hot Rodgers. Read on for our betting preview of this contest.

Rodgers’ Re-Mergence

Rodgers’ numbers may not dazzle you the way they used to, but the veteran still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards on the season while coming up with 26 touchdowns to only four picks. His numbers may seem a bit lower than usual, and they are, but much of this can be attributed to him finally having a running game with Aaron Jones, and a stout defense led by Za’darious and Preston Smith.

Since head coach Matt LaFleur joined the Packers this season, much had been said about the relationship between the coach and Rodgers, but one thing is certain: Winning cures all.

Whether LaFleur has leaned on Rodgers and his number one wideout, Davante Adams, or whether he’s relied on Jones, the team has seemingly gotten better as the season has progressed. Whether it’s improved enough to beat the Niners remains to be seen.

Ground and Pound

The 2019 49ers, the ground and pound Niners, the NFC West champs. Whatever the mantra, San Francisco has remained one for the best teams in the NFL all season. What the 49ers aren’t able to accomplish defensively, their running game makes up for offensively.

Moving the ball and controlling time of possession all season, they became the first team in NFL history to have three backs rush for over 500 yards in Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Breida.

It was Coleman who led the pack for the runners last week over the Vikings, finishing with over 100 yards on the ground and a score to go with it. One thing the Vikings did well against the Niners a week ago was contain All-Pro tight end George Kittle. Kittle was held to 31 yards on Saturday.

Deebo Samuel has stepped up in recent weeks, becoming the 49ers’ secret weapon. Watch for Kyle Shanahan to get the ball in Samuels’ hands in space and let him go to work.

Down on the Upside

The 49ers are favored by 7.5 points headed into the weekend, with an over/under of 45. The upside to taking the underdog here is that you’ll be betting on Rodgers. Always a solid choice. Rodgers has become increasingly hard to bet against over the years.

But with the spread right, it’s not hard to imagine the Packers covering the 7.5. It’s also not hard to picture the Niners running away with this one.

These have been two of the best teams in the NFL against the spread all season. The Packers are 11-6, while the Niners are 10-6-1 against the spread. Green Bay is 3-1 when coming in as road dogs.

San Francisco is 4-4-1 at home when it is favored. Bettors have their work cut out for them this weekend.

For more on this matchup, check out our matchup page for the game. For more action from around the league, check out our NFL Public Consensus page.

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Football picksDecember 20, 2019

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Preview


An NFC East showdown is on this weekend, as the Dallas Cowboys head to Philadelphia to square off against the rival Eagles. Both teams are 7-7 and tied for the top spot in the division, so there couldn’t be much more pressure for both teams to win. The Cowboys are coming off a stomping they put on the Rams, while the Eagles are coming off two straight wins, including a nailbiter against the Redskins.

The Cowboys’ win over the Rams was just what the doctor ordered, as owner Jerry Jones said. They just need to win this game to secure the NFC East. The same can’t be said for the Eagles, who have to win out to control their own fate.

Unfortunately, both teams can’t win this weekend, so it’s all on the line now. The Cowboys are favored by 2.5 points with the over/under set at 46.5 headed into the contest. Check out our betting preview for this key NFC East contest.

What the Doctor Ordered

Well, the doctor ordered 160 total yards and two touchdowns out of superstar runner Ezekiel Elliott, leading fans and pundits alike to ask, why not all along? Where was this rushing game when Dak Prescott was forced to throw the ball around 40 to 50 times a game? The Cowboys are facing a rushing defense that ranks third in the league, so they need to block up front if they want another 117 on the ground from Elliott.

Take away some interceptions, and Prescott still isn’t having a bad season. He has completed over 65 percent of his passes and thrown for over 4,300 yards. The defense has to slow the Eagles down to keep this loaded offense in it. It can be one of the more explosive in the league.

Flying Somewhat High

While sitting atop the NFC East, 7-7 is nothing to brag about for Philadelphia. The Eagles have underplayed at several points of the season, and fingers have even been pointed at quarterback Carson Wentz.

Wentz has thrown 25 touchdowns to seven interceptions on the season. He’s thrown for 3,431 yards and has competed 63.4 percent of his passes. He just needs more targets to throw too, as Zach Ertz can’t do it alone.

Running back Miles Sanders has been a pleasant surprise coming out of the backfield, as he’s run for 687 yards in nine starts this season. He’s been quite the receiving target as well, as he also has 483 yards through the air and five touchdowns. A heavy dose of Sanders and Ertz is what the Cowboys will see, but can they stop them?

The Ins and Outs

Philadelphia is only 5-9 against the spread this season, while Dallas is 8-6, covering 57.1 percent of the time. Dallas is a team with way bigger upside offensively in this game. Philadelphia’s defense has the upside on the other sideline. The world should be in for a classic NFC East battle.

For more on this matchup, check out the matchup page for this game. For more from around the league, check out our NFL Public Consensus page.

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Football picksDecember 12, 2019

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview


After decimating their division rival Carolina Panthers at home last week, the Atlanta Falcons head out west to Levi’s Stadium on Sunday to square off with the 11-2 San Francisco 49ers as part of Week 15 of the NFL season. The Falcons are 4-9 after the 40-20 victory over the Panthers, while the 49ers are coming off a colossal win against the Saints, besting them on their own turf, and having an astounding day of offense that resulted in a 48-46 win. Not bad after a disappointing 17-14 loss against the Ravens only one week prior.

It’s a lost season for Dan Quinn and the Falcons, but they are by no means laying down or tanking. Matt Ryan and the offense have been clicking on all cylinders even in this down season.

It was the Niners’ defense and running game that had been clicking this season, and then Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing game decided to officially crash the party a week ago. With two high-powered offenses, could this be a high-powered matchup? Check out this betting preview of this key NFC contest.

Flying, Just Not Very High

It seems like throughout Ryan’s entire career, the Falcons have had these insane up-and-down swings of success. They seem to fly around from good to mediocre to bad very quickly and quite often. Of course, Ryan and Julio Jones aren’t necessarily to blame, as they’ve been putting on their show as always.

Ryan has thrown for over 3,500 yards already, while Jones is already over 1,000 receiving yards. Same old story. They’ve even had 900 yards worth of help from Calvin Ridley.

Unfortunately for the offense, Ridley announced via Instagram that he would be out for the rest of the season with an abdominal injury. Secondary threats like Austin Hooper will have to step up his game to match forces with the 49ers defense. Defensively, the Falcons rank 26th in the league, so they lean on this game being a shootout.

From Top To Bottom

San Francisco is absolutely loaded from top to bottom, but it hasn’t just been the talent level that’s got it here. Coach Kyle Shanahan has brought a new culture to the Bay Area, one that the 49ers have missed for some years.

Their defense ranks third in the league in points allowed, while the offense ranks second in points scored. And there is a laundry list of categories on both sides of the ball that the 49ers are top five or better in. This is a total team.

Garoppolo had one of his best, and certainly one of his more memorable performances as a 49er on Sunday. Garoppolo threw for 349 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in the win over the Saints. His passer rating was over 130.

Led by the three-headed monster of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert, the Niners’ rushing attack ranks second in the league in yards, attempts, and touchdowns.

May The Odds Be In Your Favor

San Francisco is favored by a healthy 10.5 points in this matchup, with the over/under sitting at 47. The Niners are 8-4-1 against the spread this season, while the Falcons are only 5-8. The Niners are also 5-1 straight up at Levi’s Stadium this season, as they play well at home. You may also consider the Ridley injury and Richard Sherman being questionable as well. It’s a lot to digest with such a large spread.

For more on this game, check out our matchup page. For more action from around the NFL and to see where the money is at, check out our NFL Public Consensus page.

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Football picksNovember 28, 2019

Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

oakland-raiders-at-kansas-city-chiefs-betting-previewA battle for AFC West supremacy will go down this Sunday, as the 7-4 Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the 6-5 Oakland Raiders, who could tie things up in the division with a victory with only a few weeks left in the NFL season. The Raiders are reeling off of an ugly loss to the Jets a week ago, one in which they were unable to get into the end zone even once. The Chiefs come in after beating the Chargers on the road two weeks ago, 24-17, and having a bye last week.

Since quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ return from injury, he has steadily improved every week. Mahomes will be facing a Raiders passing defense that’s ranked 28th in the league. Oakland signal-caller Derek Carr heads into a contest in which he will face a passing defense that’s ranked 14th in the league, in a game that could turn into a shootout.

Both teams come in mostly healthy, but Raiders leading rusher Josh Jacobs has been limited with a shoulder injury all week. Jacobs does hope to play Sunday but is currently questionable.

Read on to learn more about the game in our Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs betting preview.

The Gruden Effect

Raiders coach Jon Gruden didn’t look very happy as the clock reached zeroes last week. His team walked off the field following a 34-3 defeat, a game in which Carr was benched late so he wouldn’t get injured in a blowout. The Raiders had won three straight before allowing the Jets to run them all over the field on Sunday. Gruden and Carr look to rebound against the Chiefs this Sunday.

Carr is completing an elite 70.9 percent of his passes in 2019, tallying up 2,621 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season. He only has six interceptions but has been sacked 16 times for 102 yards in losses. The Raiders must improve up front in protection, and also in penalty yards as well. If any coach in this league hates penalties, it’s Gruden, so his players should be well motivated to improve.

Oh Patrick, My Patrick

With all the recent talk of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson being the best quarterback currently in football, Mahomes will look to make fans and pundits remember who he is this week. Although the Jackson chatter is likely a case of recency bias at its finest, Jackson has looked elite, and since returning from injury, Mahomes has looked, well, slightly injured. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid say he is healthy, though, and ready to get back on track Sunday.

On an offense that hasn’t been great running the ball, Mahomes has been able to spread it out to a variety of receivers, not only due to a few injuries in the receiving corps this year but also because his guys are just a really deep group. Tight end Travis Kelce remains one of the few elite receiving tight ends in the game. Kelce has four touchdowns on the season and leads the team with 834 yards. Match that with the speed of Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson, and you’ve got quite a dynamic bunch.

Enter Stage West

In what is set up for what could be the most important game for both teams on the season, look for an epic matchup Sunday. Both teams are 6-5 against the spread this season, covering just 54.5 percent of the time. The Chiefs are 2-3 ATS at home this season, with the Raiders marching them at 2-3 away. Their betting trends don’t exactly spell a clear favorite, so their on-field play will have to determine where your money goes.

For more on this contest, check out our matchup page for the game. And for a look at other games around the NFL, take a look at our public consensus page.

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Football picksNovember 27, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Preview

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting PreviewThe bottom half of the NFC West will square off this Sunday when the reeling Los Angeles Rams head to Phoenix to face the Arizona Cardinals as part of NFL Week 13. The Rams are coming off a massive loss to the Ravens, as has been said about a lot of teams this season after playing Baltimore. The Cardinals sit in last place in the West and are only 3-7-1, while the Rams sit in third and are currently 6-5 on the season.

Regardless of where they sit in the standings, these two teams have had polar opposite seasons. The Rams have at least been in playoff contention for most of the year, while the Cardinals have been out of the playoff picture since day one, as they are early on in a rebuild. All eyes have been on the standings for the Rams, while all eyes have been on Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury for the Cardinals.

The Rams are favored by three points in this one, with the over/under set at 47 in the matchup. Check out our betting preview for this contest.

The Hangover, LA Style

Sean McVey and the Rams are out to disprove the myth of the Super Bowl hangover this year; unfortunately, they aren’t doing a very good job of late. McVey’s decision-making has come into question for the first time in his tenure as head coach, and question marks are back to haunt Jared Goff for the first time during his time under McVey. And even scarier for Rams fans, Todd Gurley, whose health has been in question all season, has seemingly lost a step.

Moving forward, Goff’s decision-making must improve. He’s thrown more picks than touchdowns this season, with 12 and 11, respectively. His completion percentage is down from nearly 65 percent a year ago to 61 percent in 2019. Goff’s ability to read defenses has always been in question, and, moving forward, he must improve to keep the Rams alive in the NFC.

High Hopes Dashed

Arizona fans had high hopes after drafting Murray No. 1 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft; unfortunately, those hopes have been dashed to bits. At times in this offense, Murray has looked like a game manager. The question is, was it his fault, or is he just playing within the Kingsbury system? I believe it’s the latter, as, at times, Murray has shown his explosiveness with both his legs and arms. The offense itself may need some adjusting.

The Cardinals defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed this season. Not great for a rookie quarterback and coach trying to make an impression, as the other side of the ball hasn’t been much help. At times, it’s looked like Chandler Jones, Jordan Hicks, and Budda Baker have been taking an entire offense on by themselves.

Making Your Wager

Against the spread this season, these have been two of my favorite teams to bet, and moving forward, should remain that way. The Rams are 7-4 ATS overall, while the Cardinals are 7-3-1. The Cardinals have been dogs in nearly every game this season, and are 7-2-1 when they are, including 3-1 at home. The Rams are 3-1 ATS on the road as favorites, 6-3 ATS overall when they’re favored.

The Rams’ recent mishaps should make for some interesting moves in Vegas this week, especially with Arizona playing well against the spread. For more on this battle, check out our matchup page for the game.

And for more from around the NFL, go to our public consensus page.

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