Football picksFebruary 4, 2021

Super Bowl LV Props: Tyreek Hill + Trends

Super Bowl LV props have become an obsession for bettors by this point in the week. I wrote the book on handicapping props for Super Sunday, and I’m offering nine big time plays including six Max Plays.

Super Bowl LV Props: Capping totals

Player props have gained popularity over the years, along with fantasy football. And why not? Anyone that rode Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce or Tom Brady to their championship this season would clearly show an interest in their player props for the big showdown.

Shopping early for line value is normally a great strategy in the Super Bowl prop department, but when it comes to players, a word of caution: Check the injury report twice.

Bettors made a killing with my Super Bowl selections last year, going 9-2 (82%) for a +$9,570 return. I have hit 65% (78-36) with my Super Bowl picks over the last 13 years, and I have also nailed 12 of my last 13 (92%) game-winners. Get my Super Bowl LV props and ATS prediction here!

Super Bowl LV props

The prop on Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s total receptions has been bet up to 6.5 OVER (-148)

Tyreek Hill, Over/Under 6.5 receptions

When looking at player props for big-name, offensive superstars, it’s often the supporting cast that bettors overlook.

Take Hill and Kelce, for example.

  • Current odds on Tyreek Hill’s total receptions = 6.5 OVER -148, and total receiving yards = 94.5 OVER -126.
  • Current odds on Travis Kelce’s total receptions = 7.5 OVER -185. His total receiving yards is listed at 87.5 OVER -195.

Hill caught 87 balls this year for 1,276 yards. Broken down over the 15 games he played, that’s 5.8 receptions and 85.1 yards per game. This is a big game and Hill is a playmaker extraordinaire. He also has Mahomes as his triggerman and in two playoff games, Hill totaled eight and nine receptions for 110 and 172 yards.

The temptation for OVER bettors is more than obvious, but take into account who wasn’t in the lineup vs. Buffalo. Sammy Watkins (calf), who practiced Wednesday, is likely going to play on Sunday. And while Hill is the bigger name, Watkins has actually posted 24 catches for 464 yards in five playoff games with the Chiefs.

  • Sammy Watkins has averaged 4.8 receptions for 92.3 yards in five playoff games with the Chiefs. That includes five receptions for 98 yards in last year’s Super Bowl.

Watkins had 4-38 in the Week 12 meeting against Tampa Bay, and he’s averaged 5.5 targets per game all season. The point is that there are only so many balls to go around. Six different players caught passes from Mahomes in the win over the Bills. Now with Watkins and RB Le’Veon Bell in the lineup, Mahomes has even more mouths to feed.

Follow @wunderdog for more Super Bowl LV betting trends and analysis!

The impact isn’t quite as great for Kelce. Two things to keep in mind, however, are that A) this game is on the road, and B) Buffalo was the fourth-worst team defending tight ends in 2020. The Bucs are below average at 22nd, but expecting Kelce to replicate his 13-138-2 performance from the Conference Championship is a big ask.

  • Only two Green Bay playmakers listed on the prop sheet in Round 3 against the Bucs went OVER their ‘receiving yards’ target (Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling).

A Free Super Bowl LV Prop? Yes Please!

My free NFL picks went 12-7 (63%) this season, banking +$6,120 in profit for dime bettors. Looking back over the long-term, my record with free NFL picks improves to 186-123 all-time! That’s a 60% record on over 300 plays, adding +$72,470 to your bankroll just for following along.

I have nine Super Bowl LV props available here, including six Max Plays. Since 2015, my NFL Playoff picks are 96-65 (60%) for +$46,900, with Max Plays hitting 67% (30-15) for +$20,630, and today I’m offering a free Max Play on one of my top Super Bowl LV props.

Sign up for my free NFL picks here or watch my video, detailing the play here. You won’t regret it.

Quick Reads

Kansas City only scored first in seven of 18 games this season (39%). The Chiefs still ranked second in scoring (30.7), yards per play (6.4) and third down conversions (49.5%). They were also first in passing yards with 305 per game.

  • When the line was within a TD of Pick em, Brady’s career record against foes that averaged more than 250 passing yards per game is 26-11 ATS (70%).

Andy Reid is famous for his post-bye week prowess, going 20-11 ATS. He has also posted a huge 23-7-1 (77%) UNDER record with rest.

  • When the line is within +/- 4 points of Pick em, HC Reid has played UNDER the total 8 of the past 10 times.
  • Brady (121.3) had the second-best fourth quarter passer rating in the NFL this season, tossing 12 touchdowns and just one interception. Mahomes was fourth (11:2 and 116.2).

Finally, for teaser bettors, when the Chiefs are off a win and they out-yarded their previous opponent, they are 56-2 (97%) in a 10-point teaser and 48-10 (83%) in a 6-pointer.

I will point out, though, that in their past eight occurrences the Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in this profile when flat betting (no teaser).

My primary game picks in the past 13 Super Bowls are an incredible 12-1 (92%). I have hit 68% overall with my Super Bowl props and picks, including a 17-5 (77%) record the past two years. Get my Super Bowl LV picks here!