My Saturday NHL betting preview looks at the Battle of Pennsylvania, as the Penguins host the Flyers. Also, the biggest NHL moneymakers on Saturday plus a rematch between the Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens.
It is a jam-packed card for hockey bettors today, with 12 games to sort through! Don’t you just love it?
In one of the early tilts, the Philadelphia Flyers are in Pittsburgh for Round 5 of their 2021 season series. Philadelphia has taken an early 3-1 lead but the beauty of this year’s unique format is that as the season develops, the intensity in these old school rivalries will only increase. This Battle of Pennsylvania is the first of four games I’ve previewed for you to get the weekend started. Let’s go!
Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Saturday, 03/06 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: Flyers -112 and 6 OV -110
These teams split a pair of games earlier this week and Thursday, it looked as if the Pens were set to even the season series when they jumped to a 3-0 lead in the first four minutes. But as Philadelphia has proven all year, three goals is not going to cut it on Broad Street.
- The Flyers are 11-1-1 this season when holding opponents to three goals or less.
Philly ranks fourth in scoring with 3.35 goals per game (GPG). Seven of the past 11 vs. Pittsburgh played OVER, including four of six in the Steel City. It’s never UNDER until it’s over with the Flyers, either. Philadelphia is fifth in third period goals with 26, but they’ve also surrendered 22 in the final frame.
- Philadelphia is 21-8 OVER in road games with a total of 6 or more the past two seasons.
The Penguins have struggled to get their offense untracked and Thursday’s first period breakout ended a four-game scoreless streak in the opening 20. They are also 22-9 UNDER the past three years when coming off close, one-goal loss. The past nine times this was live, Pittsburgh was 8-1 UNDER. They are also on a 8-1 run straight up in home games off a one-goal loss. Should be a good one.
My NHL picks are 91-60 (60%) through the first two months of the season, good for a +$17,240 bankroll increase. In the past two weeks alone, I’m 38-20 (66%) at the rink, hauling in +$13,090 for dime bettors, with moneyline, puck line and totals all cashing large. My winning picks are waiting for you today. Get on board!
NHL Betting Preview: Saturday Stars
In the past five years, the three teams with the highest Saturday win percentages are Boston (.625), Washington (.615) and Tampa Bay (.592). All three are off today but I will note that the two most profitable teams in that same span are the New York Rangers (+$19,880) and Edmonton Oilers (+$13,250).
New York (-125) is in Jersey to take on the Devils and Edmonton (-125) hosts Calgary.
- The Rangers are 102-58 (64%) in road games against sub-400 win percentages. When favored, New York is 43-20 (68%) the past 15 years, including a current win streak of five straight.
- Edmonton is 20-10 (67%) the past two years after losing by two or more goals. Included in this trend is a 4-1 record on Saturday games.
This would have been Calgary’s first game with Darryl Sutter back behind the bench, if not for Covid protocol. Sutter was hired to replace Geoff Ward, who was fired Thursday. Instead, assistant Ryan Huska will call the shots today and Sunday against Ottawa.
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Sutter took the Flames to the Cup Finals in his first stint as head coach from 2002-06. He also won two Cups with the Kings in 2012 and 2014. It’s a good opportunity for the Oilers to extend their win streak over Calgary, and rinse the bad taste of that series vs. Toronto. Edmonton was outscored 13-1 in three consecutive losses to the Leafs. In the last meeting on Feb. 20, Edmonton lit the Flames up, 7-1.
Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens
Saturday, 03/06 7:00 PM Eastern
Line: Canadiens -140 and 5.5 OV -120
My next NHL betting preview heads to the Northeast, where the Jets tangle with the Habs in a rematch of Winnipeg’s 4-3 overtime win on Thursday. In January, I mentioned a trend for teams facing immediate revenge and with the Jets, the lean is to the UNDER. Winnipeg is 8-3-2 UNDER in this spot including a 5-1 UNDER run since Feb. 4.
- After losing as a favorite (Montreal), teams with revenge are 94-56 UNDER (63%) when they have a win percentage between .400-.500.
This has been a tale of two seasons for Montreal in terms of scoring. The first 10 games, the Habs averaged 4.4 GPG. Since then, Montreal’s average has sunk to 2.3 GPG and they’ve averaged just one win in their past seven (1-2-4). They’re earning points in Dominique Ducharme’s new system but they have fallen to fourth place. Once Calgary gets Sutter in place, the battle royal for the final two playoff spots in the North will be on!