Betting Super Bowl 56: The First Course

Posted on Wunderdog by Wunderdog

If you are betting Super Bowl 56, and you know you are, the more information the better. Today in my first look at the big game, sides, totals and scoring trends to help make sense of the line.

Betting Super Bowl 56 Stafford and wife

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is 3-0 in the NFL Playoffs this year, exactly three more wins than he earned in 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions

Primer for Betting Super Bowl 56

This year’s Super Bowl betting setup is on a different planet compared to last year, in a uniquely great way. Showtime Mahomes and the GOAT have been replaced by up-and-comer Joe Burrow and blue collar vet Matthew Stafford.

Cincinnati has been to this dance twice before, and ironically both times were against the Niners team that Los Angeles barely scraped past in Sunday’s NFC showdown. The Bengals needed an historic comeback vs. the Chiefs to punch their ticket, and if they weren’t America’s darling underdog last week, they sure are now.

The Rams were here on the big stage just a few short years ago, embarrassed by Tom Brady’s Patriots, but they slayed the dragon in the Division Finals and then pulled every trick to ensure their return trip.

Home field advantage? Sure, doesn’t every host team make it to the Super Bowl betting table these days! The Bucs in 2021 were the first team to host a Super Bowl and take part, the Rams are now the second, and it’s helped make them the clear favorite.

108 Super Bowl participants were unable to host the big game through the first 54 editions, but now it’s happening in back-to-back seasons.

Los Angeles shed another curse during their win over the Niners, ending a six-game slide against their rival, and in football terms – six-straight losses to a foe you meet twice a year feels like a decade. They did it in front of a majority-Niners fan base, too (barely), but none of that matters now.

What matters is that Rams HC Sean McVay is getting his second chance at a Lombardi Trophy while Stafford and Burrow battle for their first. It’s the perfect culmination to a wildly entertaining NFL Playoffs, and I’ve got the first bit of Super Bowl betting snacks you need to get set.


My Max Play win on the Bucs in last year’s big game moves my Super Bowl game picks to 13-1 since ’08. Including props, my overall Super Bowl record is 82-43 (66%) during this time – Pre-order my Super Bowl LVI picks today!

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Top Trends for Betting Super Bowl 56

As the crowds dispersed from SoFi following LA’s 20-17 win over San Francisco, bookmakers released a Super Bowl betting line of Rams -3.5 and O/U 50 points. Early consensus betting action favored the Rams but that has swung towards Cinci (64%). The OVER shows 55% preference from bettors, and yet the total continues to drop in half-point increments.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Rams -4 and O/U 48.5

There’s no historic edge in betting Super Bowl totals OVER or UNDER, as it’s split down the middle at 27 apiece (no posted total in Super Bowl I). The UNDER has hit three-straight, however, and the past three games that went OVER all involved Brady’s elite Patriot squads.

  • From 2001 until 2011, the UNDER was 7-4 in Super Bowl betting, but all four OVERS ended with at least 50 combined points scored.

The past five meetings between these two teams have all stayed UNDER the total, but that list dates back to 2003. 50 Cent topped the charts with In da Club, Lord of the Rings 3 was breaking box office records, and the Rams’ top two players were Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt.

Follow @wunderdogsports for more of my Super Bowl 56 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!

Average pointspreads when betting Super Bowl favorites in the past two decades have been -4.9 points per game, right inline with where this one is headed.

  • Super Bowl underdogs the past 20 years are 13-7 ATS (65%)

The Pats beat the Rams (2018 season) and KC’s incredible fourth quarter catapulted them past the Niners (2019), but favorites of more than a field goal are just 2-10 ATS (17%) since the 2001 season.

  • Dogs of +3 points or more that have won between 6-8 of their games straight up since Week 11 are 11-3 ATS (79%) the past 20 Super Bowls.

Cinci is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS since late-November and this profitable group of candidates are the type of teams that are peaking at the right moment. Streaks can add undue pressure, both to the team and to the betting line. The NFL’s most-successful long term coaches often realize that they don’t need to win every game, just the ones that matter.

  • The average line in these games was +5.4 points with a total of 48.3. The average score was 26.8 to 22.8 (49.6 points in total).

One more thing if you are adding Over/Under picks to your Super Bowl betting portfolio:

  • Teams off an overtime win in the Conference Championships are 5-1 UNDER in Super Bowl betting since 2007.

The most recent occurrence was in 2018, when both the Patriots and Rams were coming into the big game off OT wins over the Chiefs and Saints. It resulted in a 13-3 yawner, but it could be another indication why this game is getting bet down at so many shops.

My primary game picks in the Super Bowl are absolute money the past 14 years, as I’ve nailed the winning ticket 13 times for a 93% record. Including props, my big game picks are hitting 66% overall. Get a piece of the action today!

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What is Sharp Money in Sports Betting?

Posted on Wunderdog by Wunderdog

What is sharp money in sports betting? This is a question that many bettors ask, and it’s not always easy to define.

what is sharp money in sports betting

Sportsbook operators know how to track sharp money amongst their clients, keying on the information to help set their lines

In general, sharp money refers to bets or wagers made by experienced and knowledgeable bettors. These bettors are often called “sharps” because they are able to make money, and a lot of it, by predicting the outcomes of sporting events. So how can you track sharp money and make sure you’re on the right side of the action? Read on for more information!

What Exactly is Sharp Money in Sports Betting?

Sharp money is one of more commonly used terms in hip, sports betting circles. And whether it’s sharp money, sharp bettors, or sharp line moves, prognosticators and pundits commonly like to reference the sharps, to make it seen as if they themselves have some sort inside information about what the wise guys and high-level professional bettors are playing. Well what is sharp money in the first place?

The truth is that there’s no definitive answer to this question, as sharp money can mean different things to different people. Generally speaking, though, sharp money refers to bets or wagers placed by experienced and knowledgeable bettors. These bettors are often called “sharps” because they are able to make money by predicting the outcomes of sporting events at a high-rate of success, and they’ve gained a reputation that backs up the stature.

How to Track Sharp Money

Now that you know a little bit more about what sharp money is, you’re probably wondering how you can track it and make sure you’re on the right side of the action. Fortunately, there are a few things that you can do in order to accomplish this.

First and foremost, it’s important to keep an eye on line moves. When a sportsbook moves its lines in response to heavy betting from sharps, it’s often a sign that they believe these bettors have insider information and are expecting a certain outcome. By keeping tabs on line movements, you can get an idea as to which games the sharps are focusing on, and then place your bets accordingly.

Follow @WunderdogSports for weekly betting trends, plus free picks throughout the season!

Another way to track sharp money is by following the betting action through consensus data. Normally, when a sportsbook takes in a lot of bets on one side of a game, it’s an indication that the majority of the public are pounding that particular bet. But if the line doesn’t budge, or actually moves against the heavy consensus, it might be wise to jump on the other side of the fence and take advantage of any potential value.

A sharp, or a syndicate of sharp bettors, doesn’t require high betting volume to offset the mass public consensus. They are more likely betting large stakes on the opposite side of Joe Public and if you’re looking at how to track sharp money, this could be your opportunity.

Don’t Get Lost in the Sharp Money Shuffle

When you first start betting on sports, you likely follow the game and have a fairly good read on how to assess talent in a matchup. Even if it’s just a high-level assessment, you are basing decisions on factors specifically related to the game and that’s good. Measuring differences between overall talent levela and line value is the next step in becoming a good sports bettor, but one of the mistakes some people make is putting too much emphasis on trying to figure out how to track sharp money.

The truth of the matter is that a lot of people that think they are tracking sharp money are not actually getting very good information. Not only that, the information is limited. My advice is to spend more time focused on systems, trends, situational capping and the matchups themselves, and less time trying to predict where mythical sharp may or may not be going.

Watch my free How to Win at Sports Betting series for more handicapping information. Plus, tips on line movement, how to set your bankroll, and how to avoid getting scammed. Sign up for my premium picks here.

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NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Betting Trends and Predictions

Posted on Wunderdog by Wunderdog

Round 3 of the NFL Playoffs has a tough act to follow, but I’ve got the Conference Championship betting trends, analysis and predictions you need for Sunday’s big games.

Patrick Mahomes punched his ticket to the Conference Championship round with 3 TD passes against the Bills

Patrick Mahomes threw for 378 yards and 3 TDs, while rushing for another in Sunday’s win over the Buffalo Bills

Conference Championship Betting Trends

The NFL Playoffs have undergone several changes in the past few years. The goals for the league were twofold: Increase revenue and improve the product. The king already had its license to print money before widespread legalization of online sports betting, so that part was easy. But after a watered down Wild Card Round, there were skeptics that this year’s NFL Playoffs pool lacked punch. All of that was put to rest last weekend during the all-time closest Divisional Round since the merger.

The average margin of victory in Round 2 of the NFL Playoffs was 3.8 points

That’s the closest since 2006, when four Divisional games were decided by 4.5 points per game. In six Wild Card games, the average margin of victory was 17.2 points, and if early betting trends are any indication, the Conference Championship games will be a lot more like the Divisional Round.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl: Chiefs (+110), Rams (+210), Niners (+450), Bengals (+870)

Likelihood of Winning Super Bowl LVI (DVOA): Chiefs (42.9%), Rams (33.8%), Niners (16.1%), Bengals (7.2%)

Looking Back: In my off-season NFL betting tips, I rated the Rams and Chiefs at No. 2 and 3 respectively for preseason power rankings. Super Bowl odds then were Chiefs (+530) and Rams (+1370).

The Niners (+1200) were a respectable 13th, but the Bengals were No. 29 and their preseason odds to win it all were listed at +13100, although I did note that this team was headed in the right direction.

My record in the NFL Playoffs since 2016 is 92-66 (58%), for a bankroll gain of +$37,710. Get my premium picks for both Conference Championship games now!

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Conference Championship Trends to Track

As I pointed out in my latest Instagram Reel, the straight up loser in the past 82 Conference Championship games has only covered the spread 10 times (12%). Essentially, if you’re going to bet the underdog, you should consider betting them on the moneyline.

Conference Championship Moneyline Odds: Bengals (+272), Niners (+160)

Totally Covered: Since league realignment in 2002, 38 Conference Championship games have resulted in 23 OVERS, 14 UNDERS and a push (62% OV).

Follow @WunderdogSports for more of my Conference Championship betting trends, plus free picks throughout the NFL Playoffs!

AFC Trends & Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs scored 42 points in what was certainly one of the most exciting finishes you will ever see in the NFL Playoffs. 25 points were scored in the final two minutes (plus OT), and home field certainly played a role for the Chiefs, who have now covered six-straight games at home.

Cincinnati at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -7 and O/U 54.5

KC’s ATS hot streak at Arrowhead started in Week 11 vs. the Cowboys. Five of six wins were by double-digits, and their average margin of victory is 16.4 PPG.

  • Kansas City’s home record from Week 11 out, the past four seasons is 14-7 ATS (67%).

Andy Reid is the first head coach since the merger to bring two different teams to four consecutive Conference Championship games (Eagles 2001-04).

  • Favorites with a high-powered offense that are averaging more than 450 yards per game over their past three are just 7-33 ATS (17%).
  • In 15 Conference Championship games with a total greater than 47, the favorite is 9-6 ATS (60%) and the OVER is 10-5 (67%).

The Bengals are developing a swagger and they’ll be fun to watch next year, but there’s a chance this team has already reached its pinnacle after last week’s hard-fought win at Tennessee.

Talented offenses off a win by three points or less are 85-59 ATS (59%), and this applies to both Cinci and the Niners. The Bengals are also 7-1-1 ATS vs. winning teams this season, and they are getting 56% of the bets in public consensus, so it’ll be interesting to see where this line goes. Keep a close eye on this side and total at my NFL odds tracker.

NFC Trends & Predictions

Move over Seattle, this is the new NFC West heavyweight battle, as these two meet for the third time this season. San Fran not only won the first two, but they are now 6-0 against the Rams since 2019.

San Francisco at Los Angeles
Line: Rams -3.5 and O/U 46

This marks the ninth time since realignment that divisional rivals met in the NFL Playoffs and one team held a 2-0 edge. The 0-2 team was 5-3 ATS and only one of eight games finished within a 3-point margin.

  • In divisional rivalries, the playoff home faves are 9-14 ATS (39%), including two winners this season (Bills, Rams).
  • NFC Conference Championship games have a 12-6-1 OVER (67%) record since 2002, including a recent 6-1 OVER trend.
  • When the total is 46 points or more, the recent trend is 8-1 OVER, but only 3 of 9 games sailed OVER by more than a touchdown.

The Niners impressed all of us with their win in Dallas, and then last week used a big edge in special teams to steal one away at Lambeau. Road Teams off a win at road win at Green Bay are 11-6 UNDER (65%), including a 5-1 UNDER run for the six most recent.

  • Dogs of more than +3 points with a winning record on the season are just 15-39 ATS (28%) following back-to-back road wins.
  • Underdogs in this range are also just 9-31 ATS (22%) immediately after a game where both teams scored fewer than 14 points.

My computer prediction shows a slight edge to Los Angeles, 24.8 to 22.3, which is right inline with the total. The Rams have leaned UNDER at a 69% rate (18-8) when favored the past few years, but given their track record vs. San Fran, they won’t be leaving anything to chance. Especially with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.

Don’t miss my premium side and total predictions for the Bengals vs. Chiefs and 49ers vs. Rams – Get these picks today!

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What are Same Game Parlay Picks?

Posted on Wunderdog by Wunderdog

Same game parlay picks are all the rage… but is the big potential payout worth it?

Same Game Parley Picks, Best Same Game Parley Picks, Same Game Parley Picks today

Many sportsbooks are now offering same game parlay bets with huge payouts!

You have probably heard the buzz surrounding same game parlay picks. You may have been tempted to try them, or be wondering if you should be take advantage of this exciting sports betting option. Some of the most popular sportsbooks put out 1 game a day with high odds where you get the option to make a parlay bet and win big! You can string together ATS, moneyline and even prop bets. Each sportsbook that offers these has different rules so make sure you check the small print prior to placing a bet.

Sports Betting Tips: Taking Advantage Of Same Game Parlay Bets Today

A same-game, single-game, or one-game parlay doesn’t matter — they’re names for a parlay consisting of correlated bets. Sports bettors can use these parlays to string together multiple bets/props from the same game, often in pursuit of large payouts. Sportsbooks do this because they know that there are lots of betting customers out there who will take advantage of the same game parlay bets to increase their chances of winning a monster payout. Sportsbooks also use these as marketing tactics to lure in new sports bettors with the chance to WIN BIG by offering big odds.

But, if you’re going to be relying on the same game parlays for your sports betting income, there are a few things you should know about them first.

– Understand The Payout Odds For Same Game Parlays

Different books will offer different odds for the same game parlay bets, so it’s important to shop around and find the best sportsbook before you begin wagering. Also, look into whether or not they offer the same game parlays bets or only traditional multi-game bets. You want to be sure that they’ll pay out winnings from the type of bet before placing any bets.

– Evaluate The Book’s Betting Limits On Parlays

Parlay bets with the same game parlay picks can be big money earners, so you’ll want to ensure that the sportsbook you’ve chosen has high betting limits on these types of bets. Otherwise, you might end up missing out on some pretty substantial winnings.

– Only Wagering Money You Can Afford To Lose

Anytime you choose to make a sports wager, it’s important to understand that there are risks involved. Because there are more legs of a parlay you have to win to complete a winning parlay (vs. a simple straight bet), it makes far riskier.

It is very important that you only wager money that you can afford to lose.

With these tips in mind, same game parlay picks should be a great way for smart sports bettors like yourself to increase your chances of winning and make some serious cash!

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Sports Handicapper Records: Should You Analyze Your Bets?

Posted on Wunderdog by Wunderdog

Sports handicapper records are posted publicly on the net, but you have to be careful of the source. Either way, you should track the sports handicapper records that you follow. You’ll quickly find who is credible in this industry, and who is just out their to take your money.

sports handicapper records, checking your bets and analyze your bets

Looking for the best sports betting record can seem intimidating at first, but tracking top-shelf sports handicapper records is one of the greatest ways to find out who is the real deal

When you’re betting on sports, you must use all of the information available to you to make a smart decision. One factor that some people forget to consider is the sports handicapper records. If you’re thinking about using a particular handicapper, it’s worth taking a look at their past results to see how well they’ve done. This can help inform your decision about whether or not to bet on a game. Keep in mind that everyone has off days – even the best handicapper – so don’t let one bad day influence your decision too much. But if a handicapper has consistently performed poorly, it might be time to find someone new to rely on.

Finding the Best Sports Betting Record on the Net

Anyone can claim to be No. 1 at sports betting and let’s be honest, there are just as many shysters in the betting world as there are at that shady, used car lot that your parents warned you about. While there are legitimate online monitors – third parties who have no vested interest in their client’s reputation – one of the best tactics for finding the best sports betting record on the net is to track it yourself, manually.

Does this take time? Of course, but there is nothing life worth having that doesn’t require some sort of effort. At Wunderdog Sports, I make it easy for anyone to track my premium picks. Each and every play is listed under the corresponding sport, with suggested units and the recommended odds. I’ve built a strong reputation of transparency and credibility, which is second to none.

Visit my Past Picks section and check out the best sports betting record on the net!

Keeping Records and Analyzing Sports Bets

Keeping records for your own personal bets is another great way to learn more about betting on sports. It allows you to see what works, and what doesn’t. If you notice that you’re consistently making the same types of bets but having trouble winning, it’s time to change how you bet.

One of the most important steps in the sports betting process is to grade your picks, and track the wins and losses.

Similarly, if you find yourself winning every wager that involves a certain type of wager, such as favorites, dogs, overs or unders, you might start to focus more on that style. The bottom line is that if you’re not keeping records and analyzing past sports bets, you could be missing out on a great opportunity to find an edge.

analyze your bets to win more at sports betting

Watch Part 5 of my latest video series for tips on how to find trustworthy help in making winning picks

Betting 101: Sports Handicapper Records and Finding an Edge

One final point to keep in mind about keeping records and analyzing your sports bets is that you have to remember it’s a learning process. A lot of bettors get down on themselves during a slump, which can lead to overbetting or chasing losses. These are big-time mistakes that inevitably lead to the poorhouse. Watch my How to Win at Sports Betting Series for free tips on everything from bankroll management, to how to set reasonable expectations. There’s even a video that explains how to avoid getting scammed, and as I said earlier, this business is full of scamdicappers whose only interest is taking your money.

Visit my new Facebook page for exclusive NFL picks and betting content you won’t find anywhere else!

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Divisional Round NFL Betting Trends and Picks: Eight is Enough

Posted on Wunderdog by Wunderdog

Eight teams remain in the Divisional Round NFL Playoffs, and I have betting trends for all four matchups!

divisional round NFL playoffs betting trends and picks

Titans RB Derrick Henry is expected to return from a broken foot, suffered in Week 8

Divisional Round NFL Playoffs, 2021-22

The average margin of victory for this year’s six Wild Card winners was 17.2 points. All six straight up winners covered, and the games went 2-4 O/U. By some counts, it was a dud round of playoff football and old school NFL bettors can still be heard grumbling from the end of the bar about how much better things used to be in the 90s.

Well, get over it. The expanded playoff pool is here to stay and on the bright side, it doesn’t look like the NFL will go any further than their current format which allows 44-percent of the league into the postseason. I know, I know, it’s like a club without bouncers. (Who let that guy in?!?). Let’s get to the action.

I’ve posted nine winning weeks out of the past 11 (82%), and my Max Play record in the NFL Playoffs since 2017 is 34-19 (64%).

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Saturday’s Divisional Round NFL Matchups

In the new Divisional Round NFL set up, only two teams are off a bye week and few have done more with extra prep time lately than Titans HC Mike Vrabel. Since 2018, Vrabel is 8-0 SU/ATS when coming off a bye week or Thursday Night Football.

(4) Cincinnati at (1) Tennessee
Line: Titans -3.5 and O/U 47

This year off that TNF win over the Niners, where Tennessee was a 3-point home dog, they throttled Miami 34-3. Tennessee’s record in Week 1 the past four years is only 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 ATS, but when Vrabel has a rest advantage over his opponent, he’s 7-3 SU/ATS with 6 OVERS and 4 UNDERS.

  • The Titans are 28-10 OVER (74%) when QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Henry are both in the lineup
  • Cincinnati is 14-30 ATS (32%) in the second half of the season vs. teams averaging 130-plus rushing yards.

The Bengals’ win over Vegas was marred by a controversial whistle on a dead play that resulted in a touchdown. Jerome Boger will be watching the Divisional Round NFL Playoffs from his sofa, but let’s not take anything away from Cinci’s win. They were the better team last weekend, but this is a significant step up in competition.

My NFL Computer Predictions for this game show the Titans winning 24.9 to 23.0, with a lean to the UNDER. Grab my premium picks for this and every other Divisional Round NFL Playoff game!

(6) San Francisco at (1) Green Bay
Line: Packers -5.5 and O/U 47.5

Early NFL Consensus Picks indicate that Green Bay (61%) is the most popular pick amongst ATS bettors. QB Aaron Rodgers plus a home field advantage that’s second to none will do that to a team. Green Bay led the league in time of possession with 32:44 per game, and the key to better Rodgers is trying to keep him off the field.

San Fran averaged 30:40 minutes per game and controlled the ball for 33:57 in their win against Dallas. They’ve now won three-straight, including the impressive win over the Rams to secure their playoff spot, and San Fran’s road record since 2019 is 17-9 ATS (65%).

  • Road dogs of +3.5 to +10 points with a winning record are 28-7 ATS (80%) off back-to-back road wins, when facing a team that also has a winning record on the year.
  • 6-seeds in the NFL Playoffs are 25-6 UNDER (81%) the past 10 years.

Green Bay’s O-Line will be under pressure but LT David Bakhtiari (knee) returned just in time for the postseason. Check the status of Niners DE Nick Bosa (concussion) and LB Fred Warner (ankle). Each was injured against the Cowboys, and are key pieces to San Fran’s front seven.

Give yourself the best chance to win this postseason with NFL picks from an expert sports handicapper!

Sunday’s Divisional Round NFL Betting Trends

(4) Los Angeles at (2) Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs -3 and O/U 48

The Rams played a near perfect game in Monday’s 34-11 win over the Cardinals, and I nailed both the side and total as Max Play winners. It’s clear this team is peaking right now but how many times have we said that about a playoff team getting ready to face Tom Brady?

  • Home playoff teams off blowout win (Bucs) are 25-53 ATS (32%) when they’ve outgained their past three opponents by more than 400 combined yards.

Brady is 35-11 SU in the playoffs all-time, proving he can win with almost anyone in the lineup. The Bucs are 11-2 ATS with Brady when playing against high-powered offensive teams, and the Rams are riding a 8-1 OVER trend in road games against potent offenses.

Remember that Super Bowl a few years ago between Brady and Sean McVay, where the Pats won 13-3? Don’t expect a repeat of that.

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(3) Buffalo at (2) Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -2.5 and O/U 55

The Bills scored 47 points in their win over the Patriots and that used to be a bad omen for this team, but HC Sean McDermott and QB Josh Allen have changed that culture.

  • Buffalo was 7-17 ATS after scoring 40-plus points between 1989-2017.
  • Since 2018, Buffalo is 5-2 ATS after scoring 40-plus points.

This is a playoff rematch from last year’s AFC Conference Championship and Kansas City won that game 38-24. Buffalo beat KC 38-20 in Week 5 this season, but that was back when everyone was ready to stick a fork in the Chiefs, as if their Super Bowl window had closed. Might want to rethink that.

  • Since Week 10, KC is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, the OVER going 7-2 on an average line of 49 points.

Allen and Patrick Mahomes threw five TD passes apiece last week, making this the first-ever NFL Playoff game featuring two QBs that both threw for five majors the previous week. Check the weather, but it’s hard not to expect a shootout in this one. The OVER is currently getting hit at a rate of 65%, and bookies have definitely baked public sentiment into this jacked-up total.

I’m looking at five big Max Plays for the Divisional Round NFL Playoffs and my big shooters are 34-19 (64%) the past five years, up +$41,490 – Don’t miss out!

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