Football picksJune 18, 2011

NFL Betting and the Packers

NFL Betting and the Packers

As you complete your NFL picks preparation this year, you will need to consider the case of the Green Bay Packers. Always an NFL fan favorite, the Packers are in an interesting position this year. They’ve won it all, so that makes them a bit of an NFL betting problem for 2011. The problem is that they will be overvalued pretty much all season. When a team wins a championship, people subconsciously overvalue them the next year. The books know this, so they shade the games of those teams a little bit more than they otherwise would. This means that when you make NFL picks on the Packers, you will be seeing bad lines pretty much all year.

 

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This does not means that you have to avoid making free NFL picks on the Packers all year. Much to the contrary, there will be plenty of times when making NFL picks on the Packers is the smart move. You should recognize these spots and take advantage of them. As a general rule, though, betting the Packers in 2011 will be negative expected value. If you realize this early on, then your NFL betting numbers will a lot better in review at the end of the season.

Posted By Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “