Roughly one-third of the way into the season, strong NBA betting trends have started to develop at the top of the standings. The Lakers are who we thought they were, and the Jazz have taken over top spot with 16 wins in their past 17 games. This is an excellent time for bettors to start keying in on trends and systems, and I have put together a list of some high win-percentage angles for you to track as we head into the weekend.
Top of the Charts
The Utah Jazz (20-5) started this season looking like a .500 club. Favorites in six of their first eight matchups, the Jazz covered only three of those eight before a breakout game against the Milwaukee Bucks on Jan. 8. Donovan Mitchell led the way with 32 against the Bucks, and since then he has hit 30-plus four more times. Mitchell leads the time with 24.0 points per game (PPG), including an average of 3.6 buckets from 3-point land. He also tops the team with 33.5 minutes per game and with Mike Conley’s (16.5 PPG and 29.3 minutes) hamstring acting up, expect Mitchell to keep grinding.
- Utah is tied with the second best 3-point percentage in the league (40.2). When the Jazz hit between 39-45 percent from beyond the arc, they are 19-8 ATS the past two seasons.
This team is also playing great defense and they know how to finish. The Jazz have a +3.3 second half margin, just slightly better than the Clippers (+3.2) and Bucks (+3.1). They are 9-0 ATS this year when they face teams with similar free throw numbers, and 10-4 ATS when grabbing 10-15 rebounds. For a team that is second with 11.4 offensive boards per game, and double-digit rebounds in eight of their past 10, the Jazz are a good bet to keep their hot streak alive.
My NBA picks have given dime bettors a +$32,190 return over the last three years!
Lakers Still Setting the Pace
The Los Angeles Lakers (20-6) have won six in a row heading into Friday night’s matchup with the Grizzlies. As is often the case for defending champions, bettors have been forced to pay a premium when backing the Pacific division leaders, and at home they are just 2-6 ATS as single-digit faves.
Los Angeles has been working a lot of overtime lately, and the injury to second-leading scorer Anthony Davis (Achilles) will not help. Another thing hampering this team at the ATS window is their effective possession ratio. At 0.947, Los Angeles ranks 24th overall. With a defense like this, the Lakers can afford a slower pace. And while it has had little impact on their straight up win percentage, it can make for a tall order on those lofty spreads.
Overall, the Lakers are 12-13-1 ATS this season but they are one of the league’s top UNDER teams, staying below the number 16 times (61%).
- Los Angeles is 9-0 UNDER vs. above average 3-point shooting teams, and 13-1 UNDER against teams that score more than 112 PPG.
Need to Know: The league average for 3-point shooting this season is 36%, and for scoring it is 112 PPG.
Since 2018, Los Angeles has been a huge moneymaker for sharp bettors that don’t mind sweating out an UNDER.
- The Lakers are 55-32 UNDER (63%) against above average offenses, staying 3.6 points below the total.
My NHL picks are +12 games over .500 this season and up +$199,220 over the last 12 seasons. Read my latest NHL handicapping feature today!
Circle These Dates
The Lakers have six games during the next two weeks against teams ranked 11th or better in offensive scoring. At 63% UNDER, only one NBA team (Rockets) has a higher UNDER percentage vs. above average offenses in the past three years.
Each opponent’s win percentage and Over/Under/Push record as of Feb. 12 is noted.
Feb. 14 at Denver (.542) and 16-7-1 O/U
Feb. 18 vs. Brooklyn (.556) and 18-8-1 O/U
Feb. 22 vs. Washington (.273) and O/U 12-10 O/U
Feb. 24 at Utah (.800) and 10-14-1 O/U
Feb. 26 vs. Portland (.583) and 12-12 O/U
Feb. 28 vs. Golden State (.538) and O/U 11-15 O/U
NBA Betting Trends: 63% OVER System
The average NBA total this season is 223.6 points. That is 24.2 points higher than the average total in 2010, but Over/Under betting odds have done a good job adjusting. This year is on pace to set a new all-time high for average total. It would make `20-21 the fifth consecutive season where the average was greater than 210.
- When a total is 210 or greater, the OVER is 74-42 (63%) in games where the home team is off a double-digit win and their visitor is coming off a close loss by three points or less.
The average total in this angle was 218.6 and home teams outscored their opponents by 114.2 to 107.9