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Football picksSeptember 12, 2012

Morning Coffee takes look at College Football for Week # 3

Looking Ahead: Week Three CFB

Yesterday we took an early peek at week two in the NFL. Today we move to the college gridiron to take an early glimpse at CFB week three.

First, let’s take a look from the home team perspective.

2-0 home team vs. 2-0 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 42-45-4
HOME DOG: 22-19

0-2 home team vs. 0-2 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 7-15-1
HOME DOG: 4-1

1-1 home team vs. 1-1 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 44-60-1****
HOME DOG: 23-18-1

1-1 home team vs. 0-2 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 38-35-1
HOME DOG: 3-6-1

1-1 home team vs. 2-0 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 17-28-1
HOME DOG: 39-41-2

2-0 home team vs. 1-1 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 70-57
HOME DOG: 11-8

2-0 home team vs. 0-2 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 34-16****
HOME DOG: 0-3

Judging by the above, we can immediately see two areas of interest: 2-0 home favorites vs. 0-2 road teams are 34-16 ATS (68%), and are 32-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

This week’s teams: LSU, UCLA.

Also we see that 1-1 home favorites vs. 1-1 road teams are 44-60-1 ATS.

So how are these teams if they are off a good defensive game, allowing 24 points or less?
They are 38-21 ATS, and if the line is from +2 to +14, they are 25-4 ATS for 86.2%!

This week’s teams: Bowling Green, Colorado State.

There you have an early look of CFB week three. I think there is a gem or two to be found here.

 

TREND OF THE DAY
The San Diego Padres are now 20-6 in their last 26 home games, as well as 17-4 in their last 21 to a total of 7 to 8.5.

A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I don’t necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped