MLB trends for every team including April best bets, series opener trends and Over/Under numbers you do not want to miss.
Opening Day is Here
We all have our own memories of Opening Day in Major League Baseball. From watching a live game, to huddling around the TV with family and friends, betting big on this year’s ace, or watching your cleanup hitter knock one out of the park for win No. 1. It’s the start of a new season and it gives hope to every team, along with all the diehard fans out there.
This is an exciting day for bettors and I’m firing six picks onto the board as we launch into a new campaign, with plenty more planned for the weekend. My baseball picks have banked more than 10 grand for dime bettors over the past three years, going +177 games over .500, and it all starts here in April.
- My MLB picks went 72-53 (58%) in April of 2019, including an 8-3 (73%) record with Over/Under picks.
I’ve put together a handful of MLB trends for every team as we start the season, and these are trends you can track throughout the year. Better yet, buy my 2021 Baseball package and let me do the work for you. It’s a long year ahead and I’m up for the challenge.
Best April Bets in Baseball
One could argue that strength of schedule is the biggest factor in determining April records, but the bottom line is that some teams are more adept to strong starts. Also remember that in moneyline betting, it’s more than just win-percentage that tells the story. Sometimes the value is with underdogs that are consistently overlooked. Here is a look at MLB’s top April picks over the past decade.
- Cardinals (146-98), +27.3 units
- Yankees (141-96), +20.6 units
- Rockies (134-114), +19.6 units
- Diamondbacks (130-122), +15.1 units
- Rangers (130-117), +14.5 units
- Mets (131-111), +12.4 units
St. Louis is not only the most profitable April home team since 2010, they are the third-highest moneymaker on the road, as well. The Cards have banked +17.3 units away from home and they open the season in Cincinnati, getting plus-money. To get the win, St. Louis will rely on a retooled defense and a strong start from right-hander Jack Flaherty.
- Cardinals RHP Flaherty is 14-4 UNDER in day games the past three seasons.
Flaherty had five April starts in 2019 and the Cardinals went 3-2 with 4 OVERS and 1 UNDER. This is a low total, currently set at 7.5 UN (-120). St. Louis went 14-9 on the road against righties last season, including a mark of 6-1 when the line was within 20 cents of even money.
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MLB Teams to Fade in April
Getting behind in the count early in baseball is no fun. During the first month, these next seven teams have proven to be the best clubs to bet AGAINST since 2010.
- Angels (119-130), +16.1 units
- Dodgers (131-117), +14.8 units
- Blue Jays (116-134), +14.7 units
- Reds (112-137), +14.3 units
- Marlins (103-138), +12.5 units
- Astros (116-134), +11.9 units
- Padres (106-146), +11.3 units
The eighth team on this list would have been the Kansas City Royals, and if you want a more recent history, no team in baseball has been a bigger April fade than the Royals.
Royal Pain: Since 2018, the Royals are 14-38 (.269) in the month of April, going 7-19 in both 2018 and 2019.
Kansas City opens the season at home against the Rangers with Brad Keller on the mound against Texas righty Kyle Gibson. Keller is 0-2 against the Rangers (one start), but the Royals have had a decent off-season. The line on this game tips the oddsmaker’s hand, where Kansas City is favored by -160. Could 2021 signal a year of change for the Comeback Kids?
Best Record in Series Opener
Since 2015, seven teams have consistently shown profitability in a series opener. The first three are the D-Backs (+30 units), Astros (+22.5 units) and Rockies (+18.7 units), but they’ve already had their moment of fame above. Here’s the next set of leading moneymakers.
- Cubs (171-112), +18.2 units
- Twins (145-133), +18 units
- Braves (141-138), +17.8 units
- Red Sox (160-119), +11.5 units
The Bo-Sox have banked +10.8 units in April series openers alone. Boston opens the season against the Baltimore Orioles and divisional games have been a tough go for the O’s.
- Baltimore went 5-15 away against the AL East during the 2020 season.
Get my premium selection on the Orioles at Red Sox game today!
MLB Trends for Every Team
As I worked through my list of trend sets to start the season, it was interesting to note the handful of teams that slipped into mediocrity with nearly every category. Here’s one that dug out a few gems, though.
Divisional Fades, First Half of Season
Before the All-Star break, be cautious around the Oakland A’s when pitted against the AL West.
- Oakland is 115-133 (.464) in early-season divisional play since 2015.
Fading the A’s against their division rivals netted +14.5 units over this span. Two more teams that fit into this category are the Phillies and Mariners. Oakland opens against Houston today while Philadelphia hosts Atlanta.
Best OVER Teams with High Totals
When the posted total is greater than O/U 9, the top play for OVER bettors is none other than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have played OVER at a rate of 63% (74-45) since 2015, banking +26.7 units.
Two more teams to note when the total gets up there are the White Sox (+12.5 units) and Nationals (+10.8 units). The Cubbies (+14.4 units) also play a lot of OVERS thanks to their Windy City, but Chicago had the nod up in my ‘Series Opener’ category.
Detroit Tigers, Best Dog to Fade: Bettors have banked +53.6 units wagering against the Tigers as an underdog the past 15 years.
Cleveland Indians, Best UNDER bet as Road Faves: The Indians have generated +37.8 units of profit in this role, more than any other team by almost +10 units.
Detroit (Boyd) and Cleveland (Bieber) will open the season at 1:10 pm ET today.
Speaking of Mediocrity
The Milwaukee Brewers are not only the most profitable team in baseball when the total is 8 or 8.5 (+34.2 units), they are the top UNDER team, too. The Brew Crew have played 128-88 UNDER (59%) in this middle of the road total since 2017, good for +34 units. Basically, when the total is 8 or 8.5, the trend says bet the Brewers and bet the UNDER.
By the way, have you checked the Over/Under odds for the Twins and Brewers today?
The last two on my list of MLB trends for every team are San Francisco and Tampa Bay. It’s no wonder the Giants didn’t show up on my early-season charts – they are postseason stars!
- San Francisco is the most profitable playoff bet in baseball (+24.4 units).
Note that as much of a cash cow the Giants have been in October, they have not posted an April record above .500 in five-straight seasons. Their combined April record during this span is 54-71 (.432) for a net loss of -20.1 units.
As for the Rays, they possess one of the strongest April arms in baseball the past four seasons in Tyler Glasnow. First with the Pirates and now with the American League champs, Glasnow has worked his way from third up to top spot in the rotation. In 23 starts the past two years, Tampa Bay is 11-2 with Glasnow on the hill. This team is poised to challenge once again in 2021 and they’ll start today as -150 road faves in Miami.