Baseball picksApril 10, 2021

MLB Baseball Systems and Trends

MLB baseball systems for top starting pitchers, an underdog betting angle plus trends for today’s games.


MLB baseball systems

Major League Baseball is a game of numbers, and MLB systems and trends are at the root of baseball betting for thousands of talented handicappers. The approach that each bettor takes has more variations than Salvador Perez, calling for a slider with a runner on second. The ability to develop and adapt a quality baseball system, however, is a rewarding feeling.

With this week’s MLB baseball systems segment, I’m looking at a few of the elements used to create a winning system. I also have a couple of trends that are live on today’s card. My MLB picks are up +175 games over .500 since 2018, and I’ve made well over a thousand plays in that span. Systems and trends are just a small part of the equation, but if you can learn to understand some of these concepts, you too can win at baseball betting.

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Opponent’s Win/Loss Percentage

In moneyline betting, the juice will often reflect a variance in win/loss percentage between the two clubs. With baseball, a starting pitcher that’s shown a penchant for big time performances against winning teams can provide the advantage you need to beat the line.

Take Clayton Kershaw for example. The perennial Dodgers’ ace has posted a phenomenal 176-77 career record in the regular season, good for a .696 win percentage. When Kershaw was at home against teams that were .600 or better, though, his career record jumped to 21-6 (.778), good enough to beat the bookmaker’s inflated lines, year after year.

  • From 2014-18, Kershaw won 13-straight home starts as against elite teams, netting dime bettors +$13,000 in profit.

In 2021, keep an eye out for these five starting pitchers at home against winning teams:

  1. Antonio Senzatela, Rockies: 16-6 (.727)
    Dime bettors are up +$13,910 backing Senzatela in this role.
  2. Kershaw (see above)
  3. Mike Fiers, Athletics: 18-9 (.667)
    Like so many others on Oakland this season, Fiers is currently out with an injury (back). The latest is that he plans to throw on Monday, and could return to the rotation by the end of April. Overall, Fiers has a 26-9 record since joining Oakland in 2018.
  4. Blake Snell, Padres: 19-6 (.760)
    Snell has earned +$11,980 against elite opponents, actually leading the American League in 2018 with a 1.89 ERA. In two starts with the Padres, he’s allowed just two runs on six hits, holding hitters to a miniscule .162 average. Once Snell starts stretching out to six-plus innings of work, he’ll be worth a look against any team. Consider betting him in the first five innings, as well.
  5. Max Fried, Braves: 12-1 (.923)
    Fried’s last home loss against a winning team was July 28, 2018. He’s won 11 in a row since then, and after his two road starts in 2021, there could be great value when he takes the hill for his next home start. Check his status, as Fried was hit in the leg by a comebacker on Wednesday in Washington. He’s projected to start Monday against the visiting Marlins and if he’s good to go, this would be a great matchup.

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Road Dogs Roughing up the Pen

One situation to look for early in the season is a scrappy road dog that chased the starter yesterday, gaining a good look at the bullpen. For one, we’re getting plus-money on these teams which is always nice. Second, the home team’s pitching staff has been thinned out. Even if the relievers in Game 2 or 3 of this series are fresh, their depth has already been compromised from the first game, activating this system.

  • April road dogs against a thinned out pen (same series), have added +$22,550 in bankroll profit on an average moneyline of +130.

Trends with Benefits

I posted MLB betting trends last week, for every team in the league. This weekend, I’ve circled two high-percentage angles that are live right now.

Chicago at Pittsburgh
Saturday, 04/10, 6:35 PM ET
Line: Cubs -155 and 8.5 OV -115

These two started their series on Thursday and I correctly predicted a Cubs victory. Chicago’s bats came to life, with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo slugging long balls in a 4-2 win.

  • Road faves of -125 or more that are hitting less than .190 the past five games are 112-51 (69%) the past 10 years, banking +$34,880 in profits.

Chicago is only hitting .157 on the season (30th), with the Pirates not far ahead at .202 (24th). Pittsburgh’s run production is even worse at just 2.71 per game (29th).

Boston at Baltimore
Saturday, 04/10, 7:05 PM ET
Line: Red Sox -135 and 9.5 UN -115

The top two teams in the AL East hookup here, Boston coming off a 7-3 win in the opener on Thursday. The Red Sox have now won four in a row after opening with a pitiful string of losses to start the campaign. The O’s have given up seven runs in three of their past four, all losses.

  • Boston is 89-50 OVER (64%) the past three seasons against American League teams hitting less than .260.

Baltimore (4-3) is currently 17th in the majors, hitting .217 through seven games. I should point out that Boston is also on a 24-12 OVER run vs. teams with a winning record. Garrett Richards is starting against Bruce Zimmerman. Richards is 0-4 lifetime against the O’s, posting a bloated 7.33 ERA and 1.519 WHIP.

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