Eight teams remain in the Divisional Round NFL Playoffs, and I have betting trends for all four matchups!
Titans RB Derrick Henry is expected to return from a broken foot, suffered in Week 8
Divisional Round NFL Playoffs, 2021-22
The average margin of victory for this year’s six Wild Card winners was 17.2 points. All six straight up winners covered, and the games went 2-4 O/U. By some counts, it was a dud round of playoff football and old school NFL bettors can still be heard grumbling from the end of the bar about how much better things used to be in the 90s.
Well, get over it. The expanded playoff pool is here to stay and on the bright side, it doesn’t look like the NFL will go any further than their current format which allows 44-percent of the league into the postseason. I know, I know, it’s like a club without bouncers. (Who let that guy in?!?). Let’s get to the action.
I’ve posted nine winning weeks out of the past 11 (82%), and my Max Play record in the NFL Playoffs since 2017 is 34-19 (64%).
Saturday’s Divisional Round NFL Matchups
In the new Divisional Round NFL set up, only two teams are off a bye week and few have done more with extra prep time lately than Titans HC Mike Vrabel. Since 2018, Vrabel is 8-0 SU/ATS when coming off a bye week or Thursday Night Football.
(4) Cincinnati at (1) Tennessee
Line: Titans -3.5 and O/U 47
This year off that TNF win over the Niners, where Tennessee was a 3-point home dog, they throttled Miami 34-3. Tennessee’s record in Week 1 the past four years is only 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 ATS, but when Vrabel has a rest advantage over his opponent, he’s 7-3 SU/ATS with 6 OVERS and 4 UNDERS.
- The Titans are 28-10 OVER (74%) when QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Henry are both in the lineup
- Cincinnati is 14-30 ATS (32%) in the second half of the season vs. teams averaging 130-plus rushing yards.
The Bengals’ win over Vegas was marred by a controversial whistle on a dead play that resulted in a touchdown. Jerome Boger will be watching the Divisional Round NFL Playoffs from his sofa, but let’s not take anything away from Cinci’s win. They were the better team last weekend, but this is a significant step up in competition.
(6) San Francisco at (1) Green Bay
Line: Packers -5.5 and O/U 47.5
Early NFL Consensus Picks indicate that Green Bay (61%) is the most popular pick amongst ATS bettors. QB Aaron Rodgers plus a home field advantage that’s second to none will do that to a team. Green Bay led the league in time of possession with 32:44 per game, and the key to better Rodgers is trying to keep him off the field.
San Fran averaged 30:40 minutes per game and controlled the ball for 33:57 in their win against Dallas. They’ve now won three-straight, including the impressive win over the Rams to secure their playoff spot, and San Fran’s road record since 2019 is 17-9 ATS (65%).
- Road dogs of +3.5 to +10 points with a winning record are 28-7 ATS (80%) off back-to-back road wins, when facing a team that also has a winning record on the year.
- 6-seeds in the NFL Playoffs are 25-6 UNDER (81%) the past 10 years.
Green Bay’s O-Line will be under pressure but LT David Bakhtiari (knee) returned just in time for the postseason. Check the status of Niners DE Nick Bosa (concussion) and LB Fred Warner (ankle). Each was injured against the Cowboys, and are key pieces to San Fran’s front seven.
Give yourself the best chance to win this postseason with NFL picks from an expert sports handicapper!
Sunday’s Divisional Round NFL Betting Trends
(4) Los Angeles at (2) Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs -3 and O/U 48
The Rams played a near perfect game in Monday’s 34-11 win over the Cardinals, and I nailed both the side and total as Max Play winners. It’s clear this team is peaking right now but how many times have we said that about a playoff team getting ready to face Tom Brady?
- Home playoff teams off blowout win (Bucs) are 25-53 ATS (32%) when they’ve outgained their past three opponents by more than 400 combined yards.
Brady is 35-11 SU in the playoffs all-time, proving he can win with almost anyone in the lineup. The Bucs are 11-2 ATS with Brady when playing against high-powered offensive teams, and the Rams are riding a 8-1 OVER trend in road games against potent offenses.
Remember that Super Bowl a few years ago between Brady and Sean McVay, where the Pats won 13-3? Don’t expect a repeat of that.
Follow @wunderdogsports for more of my Divisional Round NFL betting trends, plus free picks!
(3) Buffalo at (2) Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -2.5 and O/U 55
The Bills scored 47 points in their win over the Patriots and that used to be a bad omen for this team, but HC Sean McDermott and QB Josh Allen have changed that culture.
- Buffalo was 7-17 ATS after scoring 40-plus points between 1989-2017.
- Since 2018, Buffalo is 5-2 ATS after scoring 40-plus points.
This is a playoff rematch from last year’s AFC Conference Championship and Kansas City won that game 38-24. Buffalo beat KC 38-20 in Week 5 this season, but that was back when everyone was ready to stick a fork in the Chiefs, as if their Super Bowl window had closed. Might want to rethink that.
- Since Week 10, KC is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, the OVER going 7-2 on an average line of 49 points.
Allen and Patrick Mahomes threw five TD passes apiece last week, making this the first-ever NFL Playoff game featuring two QBs that both threw for five majors the previous week. Check the weather, but it’s hard not to expect a shootout in this one. The OVER is currently getting hit at a rate of 65%, and bookies have definitely baked public sentiment into this jacked-up total.