Football picksJanuary 21, 2021

NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends

Conference Championship betting has started to gather steam as we head into Round 3 of this year’s NFL Playoffs. I’m rolling out three premium sections for Sunday, including a big, Max Play.

Tom Brady has played in a handful of spectacular Conference Championship matchups over his career. He’s defeated Patrick Mahomes (2018), Ben Roethlisberger (2016), Peyton Manning (2003), and rewritten the record book with some of these performances.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have quite the legacy of Brady (yet), but he does have a career 100.4 playoff rating. Rodgers is 11-8 in the postseason with a 64.3 completion percentage and insane 42:12 TD-to-INT ratio. He also has a lifetime 80-18-1 SU home record (62-35-2 ATS), including one notch against the GOAT back in 2014.

These two going at it on Conference Championship Sunday from Lambeau Field is about as good as it gets. Best part is that it’s just the warm up!

Buffalo and Kansas City will battle for their ticket to Super Bowl LV on the AFC side, and the latest consensus is that Mahomes will be under center for the Chiefs. Mahomes is dealing with concussion protocol as well as a toe injury. He was limited during practice on Wednesday and as the speculation builds, all eyes are on the oddsmaker’s line.

Sportsbooks opened at Chiefs -3 points and if last year’s Super Bowl MVP is confirmed, it could go as high as -4. If Mahomes’ condition worsened, Chad Henne would get the start and that could drop this line to Pick em, but Kansas City fans aren’t hearing any of that talk right now. Regardless of who starts, it sounds like RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) could return, and the home side is going to need all hands on deck.

  • The Bills have won eight in a row and playoff dogs on a win streak of two or more games are 40-18 ATS (69%) against foes that won 13 or more games during the regular season.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Conference Championships NFL betting trends, plus free picks!

Conference Championship NFL betting preview

Since 2015, my NFL Playoff picks are 95-63 (60%) for +$49,430, with Max Plays hitting 68% (30-14), for +$22,630.

(5) Tampa Bay at (1) Green Bay
Sunday, 01/24, 3:05 PM Eastern
Line: Packers -3 and O/U 51

When Tampa traveled into New Orleans for last week’s matchup, they did so with a big chip on their shoulder. Two regular season blowout losses will get anyone riled, especially Brady. This time it’s the Bucs on the defensive after the 38-10 shellacking they laid on the Packers in Week 6.

  • Rodgers’ career record with revenge is 48-33 ATS (59%), including a 9-5 ATS (64%) record with same-season revenge.

A-A-Ron averaged 27 points when looking to settle the score. He scored more than the previous matchup in 70% of those games. Scoring more than 10 points won’t be a challenge, but the fact is that when Rodgers tallied more than he did in the loss, his record jumped to 39-18 ATS (68%). He went 5-1 SU/ATS during this predicament in 2020, putting up 30-plus points of offense in all six games. The five wins were each by a minimum of seven points. Also note that the three home wins were by margins of 14-26-14 points.

  • December-January road teams with a winning record are only 16-33 ATS (33%) off a road dog win.

The words ‘Brady’ and ‘letdown’ don’t belong in the same sentence. But after taking down the Saints, it will take a lot of mental discipline for this entire Buccaneer squad to get amped up for an even tougher opponent. 60% of the matchups in that profile played OVER, too. The past five years, eight of 10 sailed OVER the number, with road teams being outscored 31-22.

(2) Buffalo at (1) Kansas City
Sunday, 01/24, 6:40 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3 and O/U 54

Bills Mafia is trending and the question for coach Sean McDermott’s team now is can they keep up their win streak on the road. The big question for KC involves injuries to key offensive starters, but that’s normal for this time of year. What’s interesting about the Chiefs is that currently, there aren’t many other questions left to ask.

Andy Reid finally got his ring, Mahomes is the face of the NFL, and Arrowhead is without a doubt, one of the toughest places to play in all of football. Can this team repeat as champions? Fair ask, but win or lose on Sunday, these Chiefs aren’t going away for years to come.

  • Teams off a no-cover, straight up fave-win are 47-12 OVER (80%) vs. teams off a home win in the past five years.

As the no-cover kings of 2020, the Chiefs have already been in this situation three times this year, going 0-3 ATS and 3-0 OVER. The games ended with 66, 60 and 59 total points.

Buffalo scored 30 points at home this season, going 7-3 ATS. On the highway, they were just 5-3 ATS but they actually scored 31 points per game, going OVER in seven of eight.

  • At 54 total points per game, the Bills ranked 6th overall for highest average score away from home.

McDermott and Allen have an excellent 12-5 ATS (71%) record in road games vs. defenses that allow more than 62.5% completions. The Chiefs are right above that mark for the season and at home, they’ve allowed 65.6% completions. In the second half of the season, when statistical averages carry greater meaning, the Bills duo are 8-1 ATS against average secondaries but the one loss was on the road in Houston during last season’s Wild Card game.

Allen has improved his accuracy and decision making. He ranks second to none this season when picking up the blitz (19 TDs, 1,907 yards). The Chiefs were 21st in sack percentage at 5.3% and even if they do get pressure, they’re going to need a lot of points on the board to keep pace.

I have three plays on my Conference Championship card, including a big, Max Play. My NFL Max Plays have been on fire over the past two months, going 13-4 (77%) for a bankroll gain of +$15,820 for dime bettors. Get these picks right here!