Football picksNovember 17, 2021

Chiefs vs Cowboys, Week 11 – Preview, Prediction, Odds and Trends

The 7-2 Cowboys head to Arrowhead to take on the 6-4 Chiefs


Chiefs vs Cowboys Preview

Two playoff contenders matchup this week as the Cowboys take on the Chiefs at 4:25 PM EST. Both teams had blow-out wins in Week 10 as the Chiefs beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys took down the Falcons 43-3. Both quarterbacks had bounce back weeks coming off of disappointing Week 9 performances. This was Dak Prescott’s second game back from injury and looks like he has pick up where he left off. Patrick Mahomes was balling against the Raiders, throwing for 5 touchdown passes in the route.

Chiefs opened as slight favorites at home (-2.5) with the O/U set at 55.5. It will be interesting to see how the line moves throughout the week.

The Cowboys lead the all-time series against the Chiefs 7-4, and they have won three of the previous four meetings, including a 28-17 victory on Nov. 5, 2017. Dallas averages 31.6 points per game, which is the most in the NFL while allowing 21.7 points per game, which ranks 10th. The Cowboys are tied for sixth in the NFL in turnover margin (plus-5) thanks to an NFC-best 14 interceptions.

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has been on fire this season, he is the 4th Cowboy to have 10 TD’s in his first 25 games. Zeke Elliott has quietly had a good season as well, thanks to the help of a healthy offensive line. Tony Pollard has also benefited from a healthy O-line, making the rushing attack a two-headed monster.

Can’t forget about the outstanding performance from Trevon Diggs who’s 8 interceptions leads the NFL. He has been a bright spot in a lack-luster secondary. Though they can give up some points the Dallas D ranks 9th in the NFL in total defense.

The Chiefs struggled out of the gate but have picked things up over the last 3 weeks. Patrick Mahomes seems back to his usual dime-dropping self with the offense finally putting together some drives. Travis Kelce is always a threat, even when double-teamed and Tyreek Hill has found the open spaces to attack the defence.

Chiefs fans feel better about the team Tuesday morning, and rightfully so, but wins over the New York Giants, Green Bay (with Jordan Love) and Raiders are one thing. This stands to be a true measuring-stick game between two potential Super Bowl contenders, which is likely the reason for such a close point spread.

This weeks matchup could be a Super Bowl preview and should be a fun one!

Chiefs vs Cowboys Odds

Moneyline: DAL: (+114) | KC: (-134)
Spread: DAL: +2.5 (-112) | KC: -2.5 (-108)
Total: 55.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: DAL: (+1000) | KC: (+1000)

Chiefs vs Cowboys Trends

The Cowboys are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games. 

The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last five games against the AFC West. 

The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. 

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven games between these two teams. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the Chief’s last five games against the NFC East. 

NFL Computer Predictions: Chiefs vs Cowboys

For the latest computer picks on the Cowboys vs Chiefs, along with every other NFL game, check out my weekly NFL Football Game Matchups. Straight-up computer projections, ATS projections, public consensus betting data, even scoring forecasts that can help with Over/Under betting.

These computer-derived matchups do NOT represent my official picks, as there is a lot more analysis required (injuries, trends, situations and other technical analysis). If you want my full analysis, detailed write-ups, and official picks, be sure to get my email newsletter.

Sunday’s computer projections for Week 11:

Dallas Cowboys: 26.999 points (48% likely to win SU)

Kansas City Chiefs: 27.901 points (52% likely to win SU)

The computer gives a slight edge to the Chiefs and leans OVER the current posted total. Check the latest NFL odds here and don’t miss my premium Week 11 NFL picks.