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Football picksOctober 9, 2021

Week 5 Drive: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks, Prediction, and Odds

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks, Prediction & Odds
Week 5: Bills vs. Chiefs. A rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship game.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs picks – Raise your hand if you had the Chiefs in last place in the AFC West after four games. Kansas City has shown the impact of playing a 1st place schedule having already played three 1st place teams (Cleveland, Baltimore, and Los Angeles) in their first four games. And this week, they cap off our Sunday with a prime-time rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game vs. the first place Buffalo Bills.

In that game, the Chiefs rode a 21-point 2nd quarter to a two-TD win as -2.5 favorites (53.5 O/U). Since then, Buffalo has only gotten bolder and more confident behind young superstar, Josh Allen. Buffalo has torched its competition the last three weeks by a total score of 117-21.

The Chiefs continue to do what they do, which is to light up the scoreboard. In fact, they are tied with Buffalo for the most points scored in the AFC so far this season (134). The problem in Kansas City, however, has been their inability to make stops. So while they lead the AFC in scoring, their defense has also allowed the most points (125) in the conference. Buffalo is tied for first in the AFC in points scored and is also #1 in points against (44).

This is a true heavyweight battle between two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and there is no wonder why this is the featured game of the week. These teams have split the last 20 meetings straight up with the Chiefs covering the last two. This tilt could very well come down to turnovers and who has the ball last.

With 4 picks last week, the Bills lead the NFL with a +7 turnover margin (11 takeaways) while the Chiefs are tied for fifth-worst with a -3 margin. In a sign that he is indeed human, Partick Mahomes has already thrown 4 INTs. The Bills, however, managed to recover all three of their own fumbles last week, so that 40-0 win vs. Houston could have easily been a lot tighter.

This game could be billed as the #1 offense (Chiefs) vs. the #1 defense (Bills), yet it could also be billed as the #4 offense (Bills) vs. the last-ranked defense (Chiefs). The Chiefs aren’t likely that bad on defense. They have veterans and playmakers in key spots. And they are a championship ball club that knows how to win close games…something Buffalo still needs to prove.

Over the last 20 years, Buffalo is 12-8 ATS vs. Kansas City (7-5 at KC) while the UNDER is 13-7. The last two, however, have gone to the Chiefs, so if you are a “what have you done for me lately” kind of person, the Chiefs at home by less than a field goal seems like a sound play.

The Chiefs, after winning last week, actually fell two spots on’s official Power Rankings while Buffalo moved up a spot after their 40-0 blowout win.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Odds

  • Buffalo Bills (3-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
  • October 10, 2021 8:20pm ET
  • Buffalo +3 (-120) / Kansas City -2.5 (-118), O/U 56.5

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Picks

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs picks: I officially took a pass on this game as I feel the lines makers did get this one right. The Chiefs are at home, they won the last meeting, 38-24, and the Bills have been blowing teams out of the stadium recently. This one feels like a coin flip. If you do your line shopping, you can find a half-point on either side while the total is 56.5 just about everywhere. My lean on this potential playoff preview is on the home team (Chiefs -2.5) in another high-scoring affair. Kansas City: 30-27.

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