Football picksJune 25, 2021

Tom Brady Betting Trends and Bucs Super Bowl Odds

Finding betting trends for Tom Brady as the Super Bowl champ is easy. Knowing which ones he’ll extend is another challenge altogether.

Brady Betting Trends

In six divisional games last season, Brady threw 12 TDs and seven interceptions, averaging 299 passing yards per game

Brady Betting Trends Have No Age Limit

When the 2020 NFL season was set to begin, Tampa Bay was sitting around 10th on most power rankings. Tom Brady was surrounded by some of his best offensive weaponry since 2007, but there was uncertainty. Could he learn a new system and develop chemistry with playmakers? Would he and Bruce Arians be a good fit?

There was also the question of Brady’s age, but nobody is doubting the ability of this 43-year-old anymore.

Brady holds the age-gap record between starting QBs, set in Week 4 of the 2020 season against Justin Herbert (22) and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Brady turns 44 in August and the Bucs are first on my preseason power rankings chart. They are returning all 22 starters, Brady’s O-Line is stacked and his list of targets would make a lot of Pro Bowl QBs jealous.

Antonio Brown is set to play a full season and while he’s past the prime of his Pittsburgh days, that’s okay when the guys ahead of you on the depth chart are named Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Rob Gronkowski is also going after another Super Bowl, while O.J. Howard returns from a torn Achilles that shut him down after just four games.

For depth on the O-Line, Tampa drafted Robert Hainsey out of Notre Dame in the third round. Primarily considered a guard, Hainsey can play all five positions. The Bucs also re-signed Josh Wells, a seven-year vet that’s played in 28 games the past two years including three starts.

Lavonte David and Devin White are at the heart of the defense and just like the O-Line, the defensive front is loaded. Tampa Bay finished the season ranked 5th in DVOA against the pass, and 1st against the rush. No team did a better job at limiting rushing yards before contact (1.0). Note that nose tackle Vita Vea, who missed the bulk of 2020 with an ankle, will be ready for Week 1.

The challenge this year when handicapping the Bucs, is knowing which betting trends Tom Brady can repeat, and which ones offer value on the other side. I’ve highlighted a handful of betting trends below that will come into play this season. Any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

I’m tracking NFL offseason betting odds for you throughout the summer. Every time a new team preview is added or the futures market takes a significant swing, I’ll post on social media and you can stay up to date as we countdown to kickoff.

For preseason power rankings for the whole league, visit my NFL Team Previews HQ!

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 11.5 OV -150
Pre-draft NFL Win Total Odds: 11.5 OV -125
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 7.7
Odds to win the Division: -190 (1st place)
Net Strength of Schedule: 11th best

Tampa Bay plays back-to-back road games four times this year but the second pair, Week 8 at New Orleans and Week 10 at Washington, is separated with a bye week.

The long trip to Los Angeles in Week 3 is followed by a game in New England, but this is still early in the season. Guys shouldn’t be too burnt out yet, plus it’s Brady’s homecoming. He’ll have his team amped for this one and it almost makes circling the Rams a good move as a potential look-ahead spot for the Bucs.

Tampa Bay plays three of four divisional games to finish but two are at home. Besides, it’s tough knowing what to expect from the Saints now that Drew Brees has moved on. The non-divisional game in this group is against the Jets, too.

  • Brady’s all-time record against the New York Jets = 30-7 SU (81%).

Brady hasn’t lost to the Jets since 2015. He’s 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in eight games since, staying UNDER seven of eight times.

The Bucs odds to win the Super Bowl start at +550 and can go as high as +715 at various online sportsbooks. They are clear favorites to win the division and like a lot of Brady betting trends, the cost on that future is rising.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

Tampa Bay averaged 30.8 points per game in 2020, playoffs included. They scored 30 points or more in seven consecutive games to wrap up the year, the 31-9 Super Bowl win over Kansas City counting as the seventh. The Bucs allowed just 21.6 PPG, seventh best in the NFL.

  • When the Bucs are favored after a strong defensive effort, holding opponents under their projected team total by seven or more points, the OVER is 13-0 (100%).

Not counting the Chiefs, Tampa Bay held five teams to 17 points or fewer last year. This angle was live four times, and all four went OVER by a minimum of seven points. In the fifth game that followed a strong defensive stand, the Bucs were underdogs at Green Bay. Tampa won that game 31-26, going just OVER the number.

  • Defending Super Bowl champs (SBC) are 29-42 ATS (41%) as road favorites.

The champs have an excellent 65-percent win rate straight up when laying points on the road, but as you might expect, bettors are faced to pay a premium. As the SBC, Kansas City went 7-1 SU as a road fave in 2020, the loss being in the Super Bowl at T-Bay (normally considered neutral, but it was against the Bucs). KC was 2-6 ATS including a streak of 5-straight ATS losses to finish, from Week 11 out.

  • As a road fave off a win, the defending SBC is just 15-29 ATS (34%).

Week 6 at Philly is a good spot to circle as the Bucs will be off Miami and are projecting as 7-point faves vs. the Eagles.

  • As double-digit home faves, the champs are 23-15 ATS (61%).

Since 2007, the SBC has had its way with weaker opponents at home. Their straight-up record is nearly perfect (34-4 or .895) and totals are 24-11-3 OVER (69%), thanks to a 31 PPG scoring average. A word of caution, though. In 2020, the Chiefs were 2-4-1 O/U as double-digit home faves. It was a combination of the pointspread being too big (3-4 ATS), and totals being too high.

  • Brady’s record as a double-digit SBC home fave is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%).

The Bucs could be laying this type of lumber two or three times this year. Circle Week 2 (Falcons), Week 7 (Bears) and Week 11 (Giants).

UNDER bettors can keep an eye out for this 70-percent opportunity to pounce.

  • The defending Super Bowl champ is 21-9 UNDER when playing on the road with normal rest (no bye), and the posted total is 48 points or greater.

This is a good one to tuck away for later in the year. After Thanksgiving, the UNDER is on a 11-3 (79%) run. Totals are more inflated by that point in the year but weather can play a role, and defenses are finding their groove. Brady’s eight most recent betting trends in this spot went 1-6-1 O/U.

Bucs Bottom Line

Brady holds the current age-gap record against Herbert, but like so many of Brady’s records, he’s likely to break it again and again this season. Brady plays the Patriots in Week 4, Eagles in Week 6, Bears in Week 7 and Jets in Week 17. There’s no guarantee that Mac Jones (22), Jalen Hurts (22), Justin Fields (23) and Zach Wilson (21) will start those games, but it’s a safe bet that Tom Brady will be.

NFL regular season MVP odds start with Patrick Mahomes (+500), followed by Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. Herbert, Dak and Lamar Jackson are next, and finally Brady whose MVP odds are 17 to 1.

People are constantly trying to find out what motivates Tom Brady to keep playing football, despite all his records. There is nothing left to prove for TB 12, but he loves the game and makes every player around him better. The last time someone repeated as Super Bowl champs was 2003-04. It was Brady and the New England Patriots. And although the odds are stacked against him doing it again, 7 to 1 payback on a guy that has defied odds the past 21 years isn’t such a bad deal.