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Football picksSeptember 9, 2021

Betting the Broncos: Putting the “D” back in Denver

Betting the Broncos to cover their Season Win Total has been an effort in futility the last several seasons. Can they turn it around this year?

Betting the Broncos Season Win Total: OVER/UNDER 8.5

For Broncos fans, it must seem like a lifetime ago when they last lifted the Lombardi Trophy following their victory in Super Bowl 50. In the five years since Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, the team is now on its third head coach and has compiled just a 32-48 record while failing to return to the playoffs.

The lowdown…

2021 NFL Season Win Total & Odds: 8.5 (-150 OV, +120 UN)
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 6
Odds to win the Division: +600 (3rd)
Net Strength of Schedule: Tied for 5th Easiest

The Broncos’ season wins total opened at 7.5, but some clarity at the QB position and an unbeaten preseason that saw their defense give up ZERO touchdowns has bumped that wins total to 8.5 with some heavy juice on the OVER. The lines makers now have the Broncos in the playoff conversation.

With the prospect of having to face Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year for the next decade-plus, Denver beefed up on defense this offseason signing CBs Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby, along with drafting Alabama standout CB Patrick Surtain II. Selecting Surtain in the 1st Round of the Draft was an interesting choice considering the Broncos have been desperate for an answer at QB. They passed on both Justin Fields and Mac Jones to select Surtain. The question isn’t about PSII’s ability or his future in the League (the early returns are very positive), but rather if the trade for QB Teddy Bridgewater is the answer the Broncos Country has been looking for.

Is Bridgewater the answer?

On paper, “Steady” Teddy is exactly what the Broncos are looking for. Bridgewater has the starting experience, the leadership qualities, and he is less turnover-prone than his predecessor, Drew Lock. Denver has dropped several one-score games over the last couple of years and feels a better game manager could have put them over the top in several of those.

Early season succuss is key to covering the Win Total.

Denver is 0-fer in September under coach Vic Fangio, and with one of the easiest schedules in the league, a fast start is likely required to save his job. With games against both New York teams, the Steelers, the Jags, and the Raiders on their schedule the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos could easily be more than halfway home to their Win Total by mid-October. While talented, the Denver offense is young and will not likely be blowing out very many teams this year. Reaching nine wins is going to come down to if their defense can keep them in games, and if the offense can do enough to win a few close games.

Be sure to check out my other NFL team previews.

From 2015-2020, my NFL picks delivered a bankroll increase of +$121,580 with five winning seasons out of six (83%). Grab my NFL Season Winning package today!