Baseball picksMay 8, 2021

All-Access MLB Betting Guide, May 8

My Saturday MLB betting guide looks at how moneyline odds on the Cubs are moving fast. Also, gameday trends for Pittsburgh at Chicago and yet another no-hitter!

MLB Betting Guide for Saturday, May 8

Cubs catcher Willson Contreras has already belted seven homers this year, matching his 2020 total


Root, Root, Root for the Home Team

The Chicago Cubs are on a roll. Since a five-game losing streak near the end of April, David Ross and his club have put together a 6-2 run that is forcing oddsmakers into a new stance.

Chicago’s turnaround began with a 9-3 win over Atlanta, every hitter in the lineup contributing with at least one hit. The five wins since then have more been a combination of solid pitching, clutch hitting and a flair for the dramatic. Including yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Pirates, the Cubbies have taken three-straight by a one-run margin.

Pittsburgh and Chicago will take the field for the second game of this series at 2:20 pm ET on Saturday. As you can see, moneyline odds during this recent hot streak have made a significant shift.

DateFoeCubs LineResult
4/29Atlanta+120W 9-3
4/30Cincinnati+109L 6-8
5/1Cincinnati+137W 3-2
5/2Cincinnati+148L 12-13
5/4LA Dodgers+148W 7-1
5/5LA Dodgers+201W 4-3
5/6LA Dodgers+150W 6-5
5/7Pittsburgh-145W 3-2
5/8Pittsburgh-171?
*Chicago’s average moneyline odds through the 2021 season are +103
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MLB Betting Guide: Pirates vs. Cubs

Here are some trends to consider for Game 2 between the Pirates and Cubs. Trevor Williams (2-2, 6.00 ERA) is looking for a much better outing than the one in Cinci. In just 2 2/3 innings, the right-hander gave up six earned runs and three long balls, with four walks. Pittsburgh will counter with Wil Crowe (0-1, 4.66 ERA). A second-year pitcher, Crowe’s only made five starts, two with the Pirates. His career WHIP is 2.111 and he’s allowed eight walks and three home runs per nine innings. Obviously he’s praying for the wind at Wrigley to cooperate!

  • Home favorites whose starter’s WHIP is 1.65 or greater, are 80-28 (74%) vs. starters with a WHIP of 2.00 or more.
  • Home faves of -125 or more are 47-27 (64%) after winning three-straight games by a one-run margin.
  • Williams and his team are on a 15-6 run OVER the total vs. teams with a losing record.

The Cubs are on a 16-2 run against the Pirates at Wrigley, dating back to 2018. Their home record against everyone else in that same span is 68-53 (.562), but they sure do love when the Buccos visit.

No Kidding: Miley No-Hits Indians

Friday night in Cleveland, Cincinnati’s Wade Miley waited out a rain delay and then spent three hours making the Indians wish the game had been called. Miley recorded the fourth no-hitter of the 2021 season in a 3-0 win, fanning eight and walking just one batter as he improved to 4-2 on the season.

The MLB record for no-hitters in a single season is seven, and with Miley’s performance on Friday, the 2021 count is already up to four!

Miley joins Joe Musgrove (Padres, April 9), Carlos Rodon (Chi-Sox, April 14) and John Means (Orioles), who no-hit the Mariners just two nights ago. It’s the 17th no-hitter in Reds’ history, pulling them into a three-way tie for fourth all-time behind the Dodgers (26), White Sox (20) and Red Sox (18).

No-Hitter Stats

As in April, when I covered Rodon’s no-no, here are some no-hitter betting trends from the past 17 years. Data for this MLB betting guide trend includes games from both the regular and postseason.

  • Since 2004, MLB teams are 21-33 (39%) after being held to zero hits.
  • Home favorites that were no-hit are 11-6, including a current 6-1 run.

The line on Saturday’s game is tight, with Aaron Civale (4-0, 3.20 ERA) in line for Cleveland. Civale is in the midst of a career year and his pen is in good shape. Check my MLB Consensus data to see where the money is going. 

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Saturday MLB Trends

If you’re betting baseball today, these are three trends you don’t want to go without. Check back weekly for my MLB betting guide trends and get my free baseball picks here.

  1. White Sox at Royals: Since the start of last season, Chicago is 20-1 against lefties.
  2. Twins at Tigers: Detroit is riding a 38-94 (.288) slump against division rivals, including 4-13 this season.
  3. Reds at Indians: Cleveland is 31-14 (69%) after being held to fewer than four hits since 2016 (3-0 this year).

My MLB picks are hot, hitting +10 games over .500 in the past two and-a-half weeks for a bankroll gain of +$6,470. 

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