Today in my Week 4 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at Brady vs. Belichick, the Browns at Vikings, and Washington’s bid to prove they’re worthy of the Football Team label.
Tom Brady spent two decades alongside Bill Belichick in New England, winning six Super Bowls
Brady vs. Belichick, Part 1
Tom Brady played his first game in Los Angeles since 1998 on Sunday, and the end result was the Buccaneers’ first loss since Week 12 of the 2020 season. It was a streak of 10-straight wins that included a Super Bowl, and now this Sunday the GOAT will take a trip down memory lane when he travels to Foxboro for a game against the New England Patriots.
New England is also coming off a loss that puts them in unfamiliar territory. The Patriots (1-2) have a losing record and are listed as 7-point home underdogs for this contest. Granted, the post-Brady Pats were big home dogs twice last year, too, but the last time before that was in 2001.
It’s doubtful that neither Brady nor Bill Belichick was looking ahead to this matchup, but the rest of the NFL betting world sure is. My Week 4 NFL betting trends feature showcases a couple of angles live on the Sunday nighter, too. But first, a handful of high-percentage angles to help set you up for the early football feast that is Week 4.
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Top Week 4 NFL Betting Trends
Bookmakers are constantly adjusting lines to account for betting trends and abnormalities, and one thing I’ll be keeping an eye on this week is line value with underdogs. Dogs have been bringing in the cash for three consecutive weeks to start the season, and Week 4 NFL betting trends show an overall record of 30-18 ATS (63%).
Home favorites through the first three weeks are only 10-19 ATS (35%).
Road teams traveling for a second-straight week are normally at a disadvantage but in Week 3, the Falcons, Saints and Bengals were all in that role and not only did they cover the spread, each team won straight up as a dog!
Washington is trekking to Atlanta Sunday after a beat down in Buffalo. Can Taylor Heinicke do what the Eagles did to the Falcons in Week 1, or will the Falcons move to 2-2?
Washington at Atlanta
Line: Washington -1.5 and O/U 48
This is a big step down in competition for Washington against a Falcons pass rush that’s 16th overall with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1%. QB Heinicke has had a chance to get comfortable now, and his top targets are Terry McLaurin (25), Logan Thomas (14), and Adam Humphries (13).
- Average offenses like Washington (5.4-5.8 YPPL) are 31-6 ATS (84%) against inferior D, following a game where they were outgained by more than 100 total yards.
In the blowout loss to Buffalo, the Team was outgained 481-290 (ouch)! The D was supposed to be a strength this year but on a short week, they looked bad vs. the Giants. Then they were schooled by Josh Allen.
- HC Ron Rivera’s all-time record off a road loss is 26-9 ATS (74%).
Matt Ryan has nowhere near the mobility of Allen nor Danny Dimes, so we’ll have to see if the D can rise to the occasion. If not, the OVER might be worth a look as Rivera is 31-10 OVER (76%) all-time on turf.
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Quick Hits: Week 4 NFL Betting Trends
Andy Reid and the Chiefs are in Philadelphia Sunday and off a home fave loss, Kansas City fits a solid 29-7 ATS (81%) profile for road favorites. But Reid isn’t the only coach making a homecoming. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski is back in Minnesota where he spent 14 years as an assistant. He’ll be amped to take down the Vikes, but after opening with back-to-back road games, Minnesota is ready to protect the home front.
Cleveland at Minnesota
Line: Browns -2 and O/U 51.5
This is the second of three-straight home games for Minnesota and they have Detroit on-deck.
- Home teams off a home game with another home game up next are 58-88 ATS (40%).
- In tightly-lined games, teams whose defense allows more than 360 yards per game (Vikes allow 410 YPG), are just 5-25 ATS (17%) over the past five seasons.
Cleveland gained 418 total yards in the win over Chicago and is outgaining its opponents by more than 1.5 yards per play. The record for road teams in this profile is 71-35 OVER (67%), suggesting this one could be a shootout.
Fantasy Football Watch: Vikings RB Alex Mattison is averaging 115 scrimmage yards per game in his three career starts.
Sunday NFL Game of the Week
As of Thursday, my NFL Consensus data is showing a whopping 84% action on the road fave yet for now, the line is holding steady. The Bucs are one of four teams “live” in that angle from last week that I mentioned above, whereas road teams off a road game went 3-0 SU/ATS. Unlike the Bengals, Falcons and Saints, Tampa Bay is laying heavy chalk.
Tampa Bay at New England
Line: Bucs -7 and O/U 49.5
- Including last week’s loss to the Rams, defending Super Bowl champs are 29-43 ATS (40%) as road favorites.
- Since moving to Tampa, Brady is 5-0 ATS off a loss, covering the spread by an average of 12 points per game.
- Tampa Bay is 16-4 OVER (80%) in road games following back-to-back games where 50-plus points were scored.
- New England is on a 24-10 run UNDER (71%) when facing a team that’s allowing more than 27 PPG on the season.
Tampa Bay allowed 21.6 PPG in 2020, and so far this year they’ve given up an average of 29.3 PPG. Teams are passing for a league-high 383 yards per game on the Bucs, and while game script played a big role vs. Dallas and Atlanta, the Rams provided a blueprint in Week 3. The problem for so many teams is that they can’t all execute at LA’s level. There are dozens of Week 4 NFL betting trends pointing to Belichick’s ATS record off a loss, but Brady was the biggest reason for his resounding success, and vice versa. This is literally must-see TV.