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Football picksSeptember 30, 2021

Today in my Week 4 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at Brady vs. Belichick, the Browns at Vikings, and Washington’s bid to prove they’re worthy of the Football Team label.

week 4 NFL betting trends for the bucs and patriots, the game of the week

Tom Brady spent two decades alongside Bill Belichick in New England, winning six Super Bowls


Brady vs. Belichick, Part 1

Tom Brady played his first game in Los Angeles since 1998 on Sunday, and the end result was the Buccaneers’ first loss since Week 12 of the 2020 season. It was a streak of 10-straight wins that included a Super Bowl, and now this Sunday the GOAT will take a trip down memory lane when he travels to Foxboro for a game against the New England Patriots.

New England is also coming off a loss that puts them in unfamiliar territory. The Patriots (1-2) have a losing record and are listed as 7-point home underdogs for this contest. Granted, the post-Brady Pats were big home dogs twice last year, too, but the last time before that was in 2001.

It’s doubtful that neither Brady nor Bill Belichick was looking ahead to this matchup, but the rest of the NFL betting world sure is. My Week 4 NFL betting trends feature showcases a couple of angles live on the Sunday nighter, too. But first, a handful of high-percentage angles to help set you up for the early football feast that is Week 4.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 4 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!

Top Week 4 NFL Betting Trends

Bookmakers are constantly adjusting lines to account for betting trends and abnormalities, and one thing I’ll be keeping an eye on this week is line value with underdogs. Dogs have been bringing in the cash for three consecutive weeks to start the season, and Week 4 NFL betting trends show an overall record of 30-18 ATS (63%).

Home favorites through the first three weeks are only 10-19 ATS (35%).

Road teams traveling for a second-straight week are normally at a disadvantage but in Week 3, the Falcons, Saints and Bengals were all in that role and not only did they cover the spread, each team won straight up as a dog!

Washington is trekking to Atlanta Sunday after a beat down in Buffalo. Can Taylor Heinicke do what the Eagles did to the Falcons in Week 1, or will the Falcons move to 2-2?

Washington at Atlanta
Line: Washington -1.5 and O/U 48

This is a big step down in competition for Washington against a Falcons pass rush that’s 16th overall with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1%. QB Heinicke has had a chance to get comfortable now, and his top targets are Terry McLaurin (25), Logan Thomas (14), and Adam Humphries (13).

  • Average offenses like Washington (5.4-5.8 YPPL) are 31-6 ATS (84%) against inferior D, following a game where they were outgained by more than 100 total yards.

In the blowout loss to Buffalo, the Team was outgained 481-290 (ouch)! The D was supposed to be a strength this year but on a short week, they looked bad vs. the Giants. Then they were schooled by Josh Allen.

  • HC Ron Rivera’s all-time record off a road loss is 26-9 ATS (74%).

Matt Ryan has nowhere near the mobility of Allen nor Danny Dimes, so we’ll have to see if the D can rise to the occasion. If not, the OVER might be worth a look as Rivera is 31-10 OVER (76%) all-time on turf.

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Quick Hits: Week 4 NFL Betting Trends

Andy Reid and the Chiefs are in Philadelphia Sunday and off a home fave loss, Kansas City fits a solid 29-7 ATS (81%) profile for road favorites. But Reid isn’t the only coach making a homecoming. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski is back in Minnesota where he spent 14 years as an assistant. He’ll be amped to take down the Vikes, but after opening with back-to-back road games, Minnesota is ready to protect the home front.

Cleveland at Minnesota
Line: Browns -2 and O/U 51.5

This is the second of three-straight home games for Minnesota and they have Detroit on-deck.

  • Home teams off a home game with another home game up next are 58-88 ATS (40%).
  • In tightly-lined games, teams whose defense allows more than 360 yards per game (Vikes allow 410 YPG), are just 5-25 ATS (17%) over the past five seasons.

Cleveland gained 418 total yards in the win over Chicago and is outgaining its opponents by more than 1.5 yards per play. The record for road teams in this profile is 71-35 OVER (67%), suggesting this one could be a shootout.

Fantasy Football Watch: Vikings RB Alex Mattison is averaging 115 scrimmage yards per game in his three career starts.


Sunday NFL Game of the Week

As of Thursday, my NFL Consensus data is showing a whopping 84% action on the road fave yet for now, the line is holding steady. The Bucs are one of four teams “live” in that angle from last week that I  mentioned above, whereas road teams off a road game went 3-0 SU/ATS. Unlike the Bengals, Falcons and Saints, Tampa Bay is laying heavy chalk.

Tampa Bay at New England
Line: Bucs -7 and O/U 49.5

  • Including last week’s loss to the Rams, defending Super Bowl champs are 29-43 ATS (40%) as road favorites.
  • Since moving to Tampa, Brady is 5-0 ATS off a loss, covering the spread by an average of 12 points per game.
  • Tampa Bay is 16-4 OVER (80%) in road games following back-to-back games where 50-plus points were scored.
  • New England is on a 24-10 run UNDER (71%) when facing a team that’s allowing more than 27 PPG on the season.

Tampa Bay allowed 21.6 PPG in 2020, and so far this year they’ve given up an average of 29.3 PPG. Teams are passing for a league-high 383 yards per game on the Bucs, and while game script played a big role vs. Dallas and Atlanta, the Rams provided a blueprint in Week 3. The problem for so many teams is that they can’t all execute at LA’s level. There are dozens of Week 4 NFL betting trends pointing to Belichick’s ATS record off a loss, but Brady was the biggest reason for his resounding success, and vice versa. This is literally must-see TV.

College Football kicks off Week 5 on Thursday, and I’m already up +$14,120 on the season. My overall record is 45-35 (56%). Set yourself up with my Week 5 CFB picks, including five Max Plays, right now!

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Football picksSeptember 23, 2021

Today in my Week 3 NFL betting trends, I’m looking at the Cardinals vs. Jags, Dolphins at Raiders, plus the marquee game of the week between the Bucs and Rams.

week 3 NFL betting trends for kyler murray and the cardinals

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray passed for 400 yards Sunday in a 34-33 win over the Vikings


Using Past to Predict Future

One of the unwritten rules in football handicapping is to not place too much emphasis on what happened last week. Whether it’s a high number of turnovers, catastrophic defensive breakdowns or a breakout performance by an offensive playmaker, you want to keep everything in perspective. After all, the NFL odds maker and everyone else in the world saw what you saw, so extreme circumstances will most certainly be built into this week’s line.

Contrary to this entire concept, when you look at what happened in Week 2, it’s hard not to wonder how some of the outcomes weren’t glaringly obvious!

Example No. 1: Panthers (+3.5) over the Saints
Carolina opened with an easy home win over the Jets. Week 2, they caught the Saints in a letdown spot. New Orleans had just laid a beatdown of epic proportions on Green Bay, and QB Jameis Winston pitched a gem, throwing five TDs and no picks.

The Saints were now beat up with injuries, had seven coaches in Covid protocol, and crashed back hard to earth. Carolina rolls, 26-7.

Example No. 2: Patriots (-6) over the Jets

Bill Belichick, coming off a divisional home loss, laying less than a touchdown against a rookie head coach, rookie QB combo.

Read that sentence out loud to yourself, then tell me how you didn’t take a second mortgage and POUND the Pats!

As they say, hindsight is always 20/20. With sports betting, you have to learn from your wins and losses and keep the ship sailing ahead. With my Week 3 NFL betting trends, see if you can find a scenario that sets up as your next winner.

My CFB Game of the Month is Saturday and so far this season, I’ve posted three-straight winning weeks for +$14,950.

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Top Week 3 NFL Betting Trends

The Cards vs. Jags is one of six non-conference games on the Week 3 slate.

Arizona (2-0) at Jacksonville (0-2)
Line: Cardinals -7.5 and O/U 52

Arizona played well in Week 1 on the road and got lucky in Week 2, when Minnesota K Greg Joseph missed a 37-yard field goal attempt on the final play. The Cardinals are playing their first of back-to-back away games with the Los Angeles Rams on-deck. That’s a classic look-ahead for this team.

Jacksonville is home for a second straight week, off a loss and getting even more points. The Jags are in Cinci next week for Thursday Night Football. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence faces the 2019 first overall pick Kyler Murray, with the 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow next.

Fantasy Watch: Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) did not practice on Wednesday, Sept. 22.

  • In the past five seasons, NFL favorites are 53-97 ATS (35%) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Murray threw two picks last week, while Vikings QB Kirk Cousins posted a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Keep in mind, though, that Jacksonville’s record as a home dog since 2010 is just 18-33 ATS (35%). That’s the third-lowest win percentage in that span (Giants, Packers).

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 3 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!


Quick Hits: Week 3 NFL Betting Trends

Miami (1-1) at Las Vegas (2-0)
Line: Raiders -4 and O/U 45.5

The Dolphins were curb stomped 35-0 by the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. With any pride, the Dolphins would bounce back strong, but they’ll have to do so without the No. 1 QB. Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) is out, meaning Jacoby Brissett gets the nod. With 32 starts under his belt, you could do worse than Brissett as a backup. He was sacked four times by the Bills, though, so if Miami wants to keep third-stringer Reid Sinnett on the sidelines, they best work on some protection.

Vegas is coming off a huge upset win at Pittsburgh. They could be a better team than people were giving them credit for, but they just went from being a +6.5 dog to -4 fave. That’s a double-digit transition against the spread, and Derek Carr as ‘chalk’ just screams mediocrity.

  • The Dolphins are just 13-26 ATS (33%) following a divisional home loss.
  • Miami has played UNDER 60-of-97 times (62%) in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points.

Get ATS and Over/Under consensus data for every NFL game, every week!


Sunday NFL Game of the Week

Tampa Bay (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
Line: Bucs -1.5 and O/U 55.5

The Bucs have had an easier start, playing back-to-back at home, getting extra rest off the TNF win, then facing weak Atlantas. Tampa is playing in New England next week, but Tom Brady doesn’t look-ahead to anything. Los Angeles is off a close win at Indy, and have back-to-back divisional games on-deck.

  • NFL road favorites off to a 2-0 SU start are 30-19 ATS (61%) in Week 3.
  • The defending Super Bowl champ is 21-9 UNDER (70%) when playing on the road with normal rest (no bye), and the posted total is 48 points or greater.

Want more of my Super Bowl champion trends? Of course you do! Check out this article.

Since 2015, my Pro and College Football picks have combined for a +$240,680 return on bankroll. Get my entire Week 3 NFL lineup and get with the winning team!

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Football picksSeptember 9, 2021

Betting the Broncos to cover their Season Win Total has been an effort in futility the last several seasons. Can they turn it around this year?

Betting the Broncos Season Win Total: OVER/UNDER 8.5

For Broncos fans, it must seem like a lifetime ago when they last lifted the Lombardi Trophy following their victory in Super Bowl 50. In the five years since Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, the team is now on its third head coach and has compiled just a 32-48 record while failing to return to the playoffs.

The lowdown…

2021 NFL Season Win Total & Odds: 8.5 (-150 OV, +120 UN)
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 6
Odds to win the Division: +600 (3rd)
Net Strength of Schedule: Tied for 5th Easiest

The Broncos’ season wins total opened at 7.5, but some clarity at the QB position and an unbeaten preseason that saw their defense give up ZERO touchdowns has bumped that wins total to 8.5 with some heavy juice on the OVER. The lines makers now have the Broncos in the playoff conversation.

With the prospect of having to face Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year for the next decade-plus, Denver beefed up on defense this offseason signing CBs Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby, along with drafting Alabama standout CB Patrick Surtain II. Selecting Surtain in the 1st Round of the Draft was an interesting choice considering the Broncos have been desperate for an answer at QB. They passed on both Justin Fields and Mac Jones to select Surtain. The question isn’t about PSII’s ability or his future in the League (the early returns are very positive), but rather if the trade for QB Teddy Bridgewater is the answer the Broncos Country has been looking for.

Is Bridgewater the answer?

On paper, “Steady” Teddy is exactly what the Broncos are looking for. Bridgewater has the starting experience, the leadership qualities, and he is less turnover-prone than his predecessor, Drew Lock. Denver has dropped several one-score games over the last couple of years and feels a better game manager could have put them over the top in several of those.

Early season succuss is key to covering the Win Total.

Denver is 0-fer in September under coach Vic Fangio, and with one of the easiest schedules in the league, a fast start is likely required to save his job. With games against both New York teams, the Steelers, the Jags, and the Raiders on their schedule the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos could easily be more than halfway home to their Win Total by mid-October. While talented, the Denver offense is young and will not likely be blowing out very many teams this year. Reaching nine wins is going to come down to if their defense can keep them in games, and if the offense can do enough to win a few close games.

Be sure to check out my other NFL team previews.

From 2015-2020, my NFL picks delivered a bankroll increase of +$121,580 with five winning seasons out of six (83%). Grab my NFL Season Winning package today!

 

Football picksSeptember 7, 2021

The Dolphins had a good 2020 campaign solidifying their defense and finding a potential franchise quarterback. Head coach Brian Flores has this team trending in the right direction but can this 2021 Dolphins squad make it to the postseason?

Starting QB Tua Tagovailoa leads the Dolphins out of the tunnel


Dolphins make a splash in the AFC East

The Dolphins have expectations of making it to the postseason this year, and if 2020 was an indicator they are trending in the right direction. With the picks they received from the Laremy Tunsil trade to the Texans and the expectations for the future of Tua at QB, the Dolphins are ready to win now. The Dolphins defense were Top-10 in defensive efficiency last season with the 6th best passing defense in the league. Brian Flores is a defensive minded coach but the offense will be the key to a successful 2021 run. The Dolphins roster ranks 22nd on Pro Football Focus.

The Dolphins were ranked 6th in Points Against averaging 21.1 per game.

The main question for the Dolphins is the play at the quarterback position. Coming off a fantastic career at Alabama, Tua Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip in a game against Mississippi St. That injury has carried with him through the draft process and his rookie season. In 2020, Tua passed for 1,814 yards for 11 touchdowns and 5 picks with a QBR rating of 44.8. He split time throughout last season with Ryan Fitzpatrick (who now plays for Washington) in spots where he struggled. The Phins got Tua some help at wide receiver, drafting Jaylen Waddle, adding him with Albert Wilson, DeVante Parker and a currently suspended Will Fuller V.  

Brian Flores is starting his 3rd season as head coach of the Dolphins. After coaching for the Patriots from 2004-2018 where he served as safeties and linebackers coach for his last 7 seasons with the Pats, coach Flores finished 10-6 in his second season in Miami. 

“I believe in hard work. I believe in putting the team first. I believe in team. If you want to strive to do something great as a group, you’ve got to work together.” Brian Flores during introductory press conference. 

The Phins are quietly creating a sneaky defense for 2021. Miami’s defense vastly improved last year, going from 32nd in points allowed to sixth. Nine starters return for this unit, headlined by cornerback Xavien Howard . The first-team All-Pro selection led the NFL with 10 interceptions in 2020 and added 20 pass breakups and a forced fumble. Adding to the defense the Dolphins drafted Jaelan Phillips (EDGE, UCLA and Miami) and Jevon Holland (S, Oregon) to bolster a already elite defensive unit. 

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Miami Dolphins Odds

I’m tracking NFL offseason betting odds for you throughout the summer. Every time a new team preview is added or the futures market takes a significant swing, I’ll post on social media and you can stay up to date as we countdown to kickoff.

For preseason power rankings and Super Bowl odds, visit my NFL Team Previews HQ!

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9 OVER -135 / UNDER +115

Pre-draft NFL Win Total Odds: 9 OVER -130 / UNDER +100

2020 Record: 10-6

Average Wins 2015-20: Average 8 wins

Odds to win the Division: +325 (finish 2nd place)

Net Strength of Schedule: 5th easiest schedule 

The Dolphins have the 5th easiest schedule out of the 32 teams. The combined record of opponents in 2020 was 128-144. The most difficult game on the Phins schedule has to be the away game vs the Bills (Week 8). Buffalo are favorites to win the division and were just one game away from the Super Bowl last season. Week 5 is another tough test for the Phins has they travel to Tampa to take on the Bucs. 

The Dolphins face the Patriots at home Week 1 and finished in New England on Week 18

Miami faces off against the NFC South this season, with trips to Tampa and New Orleans. They also face the Panthers and Falcons at home. Another tough game on the schedule is a home game against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Dolphins face the Jags this season, they are 5-5 all time verse Jacksonville

The game against the Jags will be played in London, the 5th time the Phins have traveled across the big pond. Miami played in the first game played in London where they faced off against the eventual Super Bowl champion NY Giants. They are 1-3 in game played in London, losing 20-0 against the Saints in 2017.


Miami Dolphins Trends

Behind a good defense and an offense that can be explosive at times look for the Dolphins to flirt with the spread week to week. 

  • 11-5 ATS record finished tied for the best record in the league

The Dolphins finished with a 7-1 ATS record at Home last season.

  • If you bet $50 on the Dolphins against the spread last season = +$263.98 

Flores loves to roll the dice and brings the heat more than most, blitzing on 40.8 percent of snaps last season. The Dolphins were the most chaos-causing teams in the NFL, recording 47 sacks and a league-high 29 takeaways – 11 of those on 16 forced fumbles (two of which went back for a TD).


Dolphins Bottom Line

Offensive production will be the key for the Dolphins this season. They bring back a defensive who can evolve into a top-5 unit. Can Tua lead the Dolphins to the playoffs? Or will Miami be looking for a new signal caller in the off-season?

Since 2015, my pro and college football picks have combined for a +$246,440 return on bankroll, and I am looking forward to another profitable season. Get my NFL + College Football season packages now

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Football picksSeptember 6, 2021

Instead of telling you which favorite to bet the OVER on, here are four NFL win totals to avoid like the plague (and why).

NFL win totals to avoid

Justin Fields will eventually lead the Bears offense but against the toughest overall schedule, it won’t matter who’s under center


NFL Win Totals: Da Bears

If the Bears had announced Justin Fields as their starter, this is one of the NFL win totals that would have had some attention. Instead, the Bears are sitting at 7.5 wins and getting juiced to the UNDER.

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7.5 UN -135
Pre-draft NFL Win Total Odds: 7 OV -110
2020 Record: 8-8
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.3
Odds to win the Division: +465 (3rd place)
Net Strength of Schedule: 1st most difficult  

Chicago opens the season on Sunday Night Football at the LA Rams. The current line is Rams -7.5 and you can check all the Week 1 NFL odds at my site.

  • The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog and the UNDER is 13-5 (72%) when they are in this role.

Given Chicago’s road slate, with stops in Tampa, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Seattle, you can get used to reading ‘road dog’ trends for Da Bears all season long. Even if they were to split their divisional matchups with Green Bay and Minnesota, sweep the Lions, and pull off a couple non-conference upsets, they still wouldn’t clear this win total.

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Darnold’s Fresh Start in Carolina

Bold NFL futures prediction: By the time he retires, Sam Darnold will go OVER the number of NFL teams that Ryan Fitzpatrick (8) has played for in his career.

After three mediocre years with the Jets, Darnold was traded to Carolina in April for a bunch of draft picks. He’s picking up Joe Brady’s offense but with an O-Line that’s as bad as New York’s last season, when Darnold was sacked 35 times, we can’t expect much.

Instead, look for a sad start, a sub-500 record by the midpoint, and then an injury that sidelines Darnold until the Week 13 bye. Like Fitz, he’ll come in after the rest and win one game, looking like a star. After that, the Panthers will lose out and the journeyman’s mold can start being cast.

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7.5 OV -120
Pre-draft NFL Win Total Odds: 7.5 UN -115
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 5.7
Odds to win the Division: +1170 (4th place)
Net Strength of Schedule: 13th easiest  

The Panthers’ final four games are at Buffalo, vs. Tampa, at New Orleans and then at Tampa. If the Bucs are resting starters in Week 18, that’s the only way Carolina doesn’t go 0-4 down the stretch.


Vegas NFL Win Totals All Over the Map

I’ve been tracking NFL win totals all through the offseason and the Raiders have been one of the most active lines. Denver, Cleveland, Green Bay and Houston deserve honorable mention, but most of that can be attributed to Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson.

When NFL win totals opened, the Raiders were available at 7.5 OVER -110. That line was moved to 8 within a month but this wasn’t a great offseason by any measure. Vegas broke up their O-Line, who Pro Football Focus ranks 26th in the league. With a thin receiving corps, QB Derek Carr will be hard pressed to replicate his 2020 production.

Vegas also has the 21st ranked strength of schedule which includes games against the AFC North, Dallas, and Washington. And then of course there’s the six divisional matchups. Today you can get even-money betting the Raiders UNDER 7 wins. Based on the juice books’ charge for some of the other NFL win totals available, that’s not a bad option.

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7 OV -120
Pre-draft NFL Win Total Odds: 7.5 OV -110
2020 Record: 8-8
Average Wins 2018-20: 6.3
Odds to win the Division: +1900 (4th place)
Net Strength of Schedule: 11th most difficult  

The Raiders open the season on Monday Night Football, hosting the Ravens. As of press time, the Ravens are favored by -4.5 points but my NFL consensus data only shows 56% action on Baltimore.

NFL Week 1 road favorites (including the Ravens), are averaging 70% action with online sportsbooks.

The Ravens have covered six-straight times as a favorite and Lamar Jackson is expected by many to have another double-digit win season, but Baltimore’s offense has been ravaged. RB JK Dobbins is out for the year and the wide receiver corps is thin with all four starters, plus TE Nick Boyle, nursing injuries.

With fans in the stadium, perhaps the Raiders will start to develop a home field advantage at Allegiant, similar to the one they had in Oakland. For now, this team hasn’t had a winning record in 16 of the past 17 years. Getting points on a week-to-week basis, they’re worth a look. Breaking out of that cycle for nine straight up wins in 2021 however, is unlikely.

NFL betting trends, free picks and more! Follow @WunderdogSports on Instagram.


Lions Once Again Own One of Lowest NFL Win Totals

It’s only fitting that the Lions are last on this list. If it weren’t for the Houston Texans, Detroit would be a clear winner in terms of the lowest posted win total in 2021. Jared Goff takes over for Matthew Stafford and while he does have a nice looking O-Line in front of him, the offense has a challenging year ahead.

It starts with games against the Niners, Packers and Ravens. After a Week 9 bye, Detroit will need to catch a break or two, or they might go winless in the second half. D’Andre Swift will be a positive this season, as will counterpart Jamaal Williams. O-Co Anthony Lynn has proven his ability to make the worst of a good situation, but now that he’s out of the head coaching role, Lynn should be better suited to turn red zone situations into touchdowns rather than turnovers.

Defensively there is not enough here to make me think the Lions will win more than four or five games straight up. Detroit is a 62% OVER team in home games during the first half of the season, so circle Weeks 1-3-6-8. Garbage time TDs were one of Stafford’s specialties and given the situation, Goff should pick up right where his predecessor left off.

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 5 UN -120
Pre-draft NFL Win Total Odds: 5 UN -120
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 4.7
Odds to win the Division: +2600 (4th place)
Net Strength of Schedule: 5th most difficult  

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