May 2021


Football picksMay 30, 2021

NFL offseason betting odds, updated Season Win Totals and team previews throughout the summer as we countdown to kickoff. This is your NFL offseason betting HQ!

NFL offseason betting previews for every team

Trevor Lawrence is getting used to life in the NFL where every snap in the offseason goes under the microscope 


The 2021 NFL off-season is like nothing we’ve seen before. Stability has reemerged on the sports betting landscape and with it, fans are returning to the ballparks and arenas across the country. While It’s still too early to call it post-pandemic, with OTA’s being treated the way a senior treats optional preseason walkthroughs, NFL training camps are on pace. Every team expects to report no later than July 27, and the air of uncertainty that hung around 2020’s offseason longer than your in-laws at Thanksgiving, is long gone.

Throughout the summer, I’ll be bringing you NFL team previews with a strong focus on betting.

  • Updated futures and season win totals.
  • Player trends and coaching data to be aware of.
  • Power rankings and scheduling spots worth circling.

The kind of information you can use right now, to help make those difficult decisions in September a little easier to manage.

Gameplan: NFL Offseason Betting HQ

Bookmark this page and keep an eye on my social media channels throughout the summer. Every time a new team is added or the futures market takes a significant swing, I’ll send out an update and this page will be the NFL offseason betting hub you can count on.

If you have any special requests you’d like to see added to the previews, hit me up on social media and I’ll do what I can to deliver. I look forward to bringing you the kind of football wagering information you can rely on to become a better bettor.

Follow me on Instagram & Twitter — Free picks and much more!

As always, I’ll be posting winning picks along the way. Major League Baseball, NHL and NBA Playoffs, WNBA, Triple Crown and PGA Majors. I’ve been cleaning up the past couple weeks with positive records and cash flow, and once the NFL preseason schedule begins in August I’ll be back to work building on a bankroll that’s up +$224,070 in the past 19 seasons.

My NFL Max Plays in the past five seasons are 112-76 (60%) for a return of +$44,830!

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2021 NFL Preseason Power Rankings

By the time a Super Bowl champ is crowned in February, a handful of NFL head coaches have already cleaned out their office and left the building. Free agency, the NFL Draft and schedule release trigger movements on the futures betting market, but it isn’t until August that online sports betting shops start realizing significant activity from NFL bettors.

Tracking player personnel updates and futures movement is a key part of my preseason prep. As the team previews roll out, I’ll be keeping a keen eye on the odds out of Vegas and you’ll be the first to know when there’s an update. Click the team link in the following chart for an in-depth preview!

RankTeamSuper Bowl OddsSWT OpenSWT Current
1.TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS+70011.5 OV -12511.5 UN -120
2.LOS ANGELES RAMS+120010.5 UN -15010.5 UN -125
3.KANSAS CITY CHIEFS+45012 OV -11512 OV -130
4.BUFFALO BILLS+110010.5 OV -12010.5 OV -130
5.GREEN BAY PACKERS+140010.5 OV -14511 UN -125
6.BALTIMORE RAVENS+110011 OV -12511 UN -115
7.SEATTLE SEAHAWKS+25009.5 OV -13510 UN -125
8.INDIANAPOLIS COLTS+220010 UN -1359.5 OV -160
9.MIAMI DOLPHINS+25009 OV -120 9 OV -135
10.ARIZONA CARDINALS+40008 OV -1108 OV -140
11.CLEVELAND BROWNS+16009.5 OV -15010 OV -115
12.TENNESSEE TITANS+25009.5 UN -1509.5 UN -130
13.SAN FRANCISCO 49ers+120010.5 UN -15010 OV -140
14.PITTSBURGH STEELERS+33008.5 OV -1209 UN -125
15.MINNESOTA VIKINGS+40008.5 OV -1458.5 OV -115
16.ATLANTA FALCONS+50007 OV -1457 OV -115
17.WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +50008 OV -1358 UN -115
18.CHICAGO BEARS+50007 OV -1107.5 UN -125
19.NEW ORLEANS SAINTS+25009 OV -1109.5 UN -140
20.DALLAS COWBOYS+28009.5 UN -1359.5 UN -130
21.CAROLINA PANTHERS+50007.5 UN -1157.5 UN -130
22.LOS ANGELES CHARGERS+33009 UN -1159 UN -125
23.NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS+30009 OV -1459 OV -125
24.NEW YORK GIANTS+66007 OV -1107 OV -110
25.PHILADELPHIA EAGLES+66006.5 OV -1357 UN -125
26.LAS VEGAS RAIDERS+60007.5 OV -1108 UN -135
27.DENVER BRONCOS+20007.5 UN -1207.5 UN -125
28.NEW YORK JETS+80006.5 UN -1506 OV -130
29.CINCINNATI BENGALS+100006.5 OV -1106.5 UN -115
30.DETROIT LIONS+125005 UN -1205 OV -130
31.JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS+66006.5 UN -1206 OV -120
32.HOUSTON TEXANS+125004.5 OV -1105 UN -130

NFL data updated on Monday, June 14, 2021

NFL Offseason Betting Guide

Read my 2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds article from April to see how your favorite team stacked up before the NFL Draft.

Also:

I’ll have College Football and NFL Early-bird packages by July. Contact my customer service team for more information and keep an eye on my Instagram feed for free picks throughout the summer. Football season is just around the corner!

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Sports picksMay 27, 2021
https://www.wunderdog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/UCL-Trophy.jpeg


The Champions League Final is this Saturday at 3 PM ET and is being held in Portugal due to Covid-19 restrictions in Istanbul. Premier League winners Manchester City make their first UCL Final appearance in the history of their club, while Chelsea make their second finals appearance winning the competition back in 2012-13. Chelsea ran out 3-1 aggregate winners over Real Madrid while Man City cruised to a 4-1 aggregate victory over the much-fancied PSG. Down below is a breakdown of my 2021 Champions League Final and some betting odds for this Saturday’s match.


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TEAM PREVIEW



MANCHESTER CITY


It’s been almost close to a perfect season for the Citizens. The “Nosey Neighbors” have once again shown why they are a dominant English club. After a rocky start to the season, which found City in 8th place in the league table on Christmas Day, the team found a string of success and vaulted to top the league. After losing to Chelsea in the semi-finals of the FA Cup, City have gone on to win the Carabao Cup against Tottenham and lifted the Premier League trophy for the 5th time in their history. 

Pep Guardiola’s men will be up against a very dominant defensive side in Chelsea, looking to breakdown the back line with runs from Phil Foden or Riyad Mahrez. If City can dominate possession and limit counter-attacks, they could be lifting the Champions League Finals trophy.


CHELSEA


Chelsea are making their second appearance in the Champions League Final, first time they have been back to the final since they won it in the 2012-13 season. After starting the year with club legend Frank Lampard as manager, the “London Blues” were a very inconsistent side. After Chelsea found themselves in 9th after Match-week 19, the club decided to make a change. After letting Lampard go, Chelsea brought in PSG manager Thomas Tuchel. The Blues went on an insane run since they brought in Tuchel, going 13 straight games unbeaten.

This season has been a success getting to a FA Cup Final, a UCL Final, and finishing in the Top 4 securing a Champions League spot for next season. Look for Kante to be a disrupting force in the middle of the park, while the striker (either Giroud or Werner) try and get in-between the two centerback’s for City. If Chelsea can grab an early goal, look for them to press and try to force City into mistakes.


Follow @WunderdogSports for free NHL Playoff picks and betting trends!


BETTING ODDS


Manchester City vs. Chelsea spread: Manchester City -0.5


Manchester City vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals


Manchester City vs. Chelsea Money Line: Manchester City -112, Chelsea +340, Draw +240


MC: The Citizens have scored 76 goals in 31 Champions League games over the last three seasons.


CHE: Striker Olivier Giroud is tied for third in the Champions League with six goals.


Follow Wunderdog on Instagram for more Soccer betting tips plus free picks in the NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball And don’t miss my Soccer packages!


 

Hockey picksMay 27, 2021

Home ice advantage was on full display Wednesday in NHL Playoffs betting, as the Wild, Lightning and New York Islanders swept the board. While attendance numbers grow, will home ice advantage turn into the difference maker for hockey handicappers?

home ice advantage nashville predators

Smashville has led the NHL Playoffs in attendance thus far and will allow a record-high 14,107 fans to attend Game 6 of their Stanley Cup series vs. the Carolina Hurricanes


Home Ice Advantage, NHL Playoffs

Home ice in 2021 NHL Playoff betting hadn’t meant much before Wednesday night. Collectively, teams were 18-20 for a .474 win percentage and on an average moneyline betting price of -135, 47 percent is just a slow ride to the poor house. Dime bettors were already down -$7,170 had they simply blanket bet the home side.

Any best-of-seven playoff series will develop an identity as the stakes increase, however. And with fans being able to attend these games on an ever-increasing basis, we caught a glimpse Wednesday of the impact a building’s intensity can and should have on a game.

  • The Islanders, Lightning and Wild — All three ranking inside the top six for home winning percentage this season, went 3-0 for +$3,200 on May 26.

Toronto hosts Montreal in Game 5 of their series on Thursday and unlike American venues, the Leafs are unable to host fans. Nashville is a different story, where fans have packed into Bridgestone Arena to a league-high 70.9% capacity thus far. The NHL has approved another increase for Game 6 of their series vs. Carolina and tonight we can expect 14,107 raucous, masked up Preds fans in the building.

Home ice advantage in the NHL playoffs

Carolina is just behind Nashville with 64.2% capacity reached in their first three home games and so far the home team in this series is 5-0. The Hurricanes are 23-8 (.742) with home ice advantage this year, tied for second-best in the NHL, but they’d much rather save that next home date up for Round 2.

My betting previews for the Canadiens-Maple Leafs and Hurricanes-Predators are below. In Round 1 NHL Playoff betting my picks are 29-14 (67%) for a huge bankroll gain of +$17,410. Dime bettors are up +$24,700 with my hockey picks in 2021 and the action is just heating up!

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Montreal at Toronto (3-1), Game 5
Thursday, May 26, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Maple Leafs -235 and 5.5 UN -135

The Montreal Canadiens took the first game of this series 2-1. Highlights for interim coach Dominic Ducharme’s beleaguered squad have since been few and far between. Montreal also beat the Leafs 3-2 back on May 3 but they are 1-8 in the nine games that followed and teetering on the brink of elimination.

Montreal’s power play has been completely shut down (0-for-13), looking more like a preseason version than any competent playoff unit. The Habs did score a shorthanded goal, one of just four total goals in this series, and they lead all playoff teams with 44 hits per game. They also rank highest in giveaways, however, at 14.5 per game. With pedestrian faceoff numbers and a miniscule 3.5 shooting percentage at 5-on-5, the writing is on the wall.

  • Of the five lowest shooting-percentages in the playoffs (Penguins, Capitals, Blues, Oilers, Habs), all but Montreal have been eliminated.

Montreal holds a 2-1 scoring advantage in the first period vs. Toronto. In the second and third, the Leafs have lowered the hammer 8-1 and 3-1 respectively. Carey Price has played great but everyone knew that Price had to be at the top of his game for Montreal to even have a chance. He can’t score the goals and without offense, they are done.

  • Playoff road dogs off a blowout loss by 4-plus goals are 34-17 UNDER (67%).
  • Playoff road teams that have lost three-straight are 33-23 (59%) on the moneyline, playing UNDER at a rate of 61%.

Everything points at a Leafs win and that probability has been baked into these moneyline odds. It won’t surprise me to see this line get higher throughout the day as public money floods in on the ‘can’t lose’ fave of the day, either. Check my NHL Consensus Data for betting percentages. NHL teams with a 3-1 series lead in all rounds are 179-140 (.561) but in the first round, that Game 5 win percentage is just .488 (60-63).

Follow @WunderdogSports for free NHL Playoff picks and betting trends!

Carolina (3-2) at Nashville, Game 6
Thursday, May 27, 9:30 PM ET
Line: Hurricanes -140 and 5.5 UN -135

It’s a late start in Nashville and given the number of overtime periods these two have battled through, conditioning could play a role. Scoring by periods, these two are even in the first 20 minutes at 5-5, and even in the second 4-4. Carolina holds an 8-2 advantage in the third period, the majority of which came in the first two games where the Canes hammered down 5-0 in the final frame, two of five goals going into an empty cage.

During the regular season, each of these teams were slow starters. The Canes posted 41 first period goals and the Predators ranked 30th with 36. They were even in the third, but Carolina had a distinct edge in the middle stanza with 66 goals (T-4th). The Preds were 23rd with 48.

The thing about Nashville, though, is that it was really a story of two seasons. They only scored 2.5 and 2.2 goals per game (GPG) in January-February. In March that average increased to 2.9 and then again in April to 3.3 GPG. This is going to be a tightly contested game and home ice advantage will be more prevalent tonight than at any point this entire season.

  • Carolina is 7-0 all-time in any series they led 3-2, but just 4-3 in Game 6.
  • Nashville has an all-time record of 3-7 in Game 6 when trailing a series 3-2.
  • Game 6 road teams off a home win are 34-20 (63%) all-time when leading 3-2.

Goaltending has been stellar throughout this series and whichever netminder plays his game of the year tonight, could be the difference. Alex Nedeljkovic is sporting a .927 save percentage, not far from his .932 regular season data. Juuse Saros has the edge in playoff experience, but this is only his second year as a bona fide starter. His all-time record in nine playoff starts is 3-6 with a .918 save percentage and 2.53 goals-against average.

My NHL Max Plays are 20-8 (71%) this season for an incredible +$10,750 return! Don’t miss another play!

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Basketball picksMay 22, 2021


It’s Playoff Time and I’ve got my 2021 NBA Playoff Betting Guide and Preview ready for you now! The Play-in Game’s and final seeds have been decided and it’s time to move on to the Postseason. Heavy favorite Brooklyn Nets lead the way, but there are a lot of interesting matchup to take a look at. Let’s take a dive into each matchup and see if we can find any gems. 

Here’s a full look at how the playoffs stand. 


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PHILADELPHIA 76ER’S VS. WASHINGTON WIZARDS


The Wizards won their game against the Pacers for the 8th seed and now face the #1 seed 76er’s. In their 3 meetings this season, which were all 76er wins, Joel Embiid is averaging 30 points on 60% shooting. Washington is going to have a tough time guarding him, but look for Westbrook and Beal to steal a game in this series.

  • Spread: 76er’s -7.5
  • O/U: 229.5
  • ML for Game 1: WASH +260, PHI -350
  • Series Odds: WASH +600, PHI -1000

Check out my Wizards vs 76ers matchup here.



BROOKLYN NETS VS. BOSTON CELTICS


The Nets are hot favorites at the books but their 22nd ranked defense could cause them some problems. Jayson Tatum showed he can play in big games, dropping 50 in the play-in game against the Wizards. If Tatum can get some help from Kemba and Fournier, they will test this big three. With that said, the Nets dynamic offense should make easy work of the Jaylen Brown-less Celtics. 

  • Spread: Nets -7.5
  • O/U: 229
  • ML for Game 1: BOS +275, BROOK -360
  • Series Odds: BOS +800, BROOK -1600

Check out my Celtics vs. Nets matchup here.



MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. MIAMI HEAT


The Heat have found a way to be that itch that the Bucks can’t scratch. Milwaukee hopes that by bringing in Jrue Holiday, they could turn the series in their favor. If the Heat can limit Giannis in transition and get out to their shooters, this series could go 7. Don’t count out Jimmy Buckets when the postseason comes around.

  • Spread: Bucks -6
  • O/U: 226.5
  • ML for Game 1: MIL -200, MIA +165
  • Series Odds: MIL -280, MIA +230

Check out my Bucks vs. Heat matchup here.



ATLANTA HAWKS VS. NEW YORK KNICKS


The Knicks Julius Randle could shine like in the regular season, when he averaged 37.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game against Atlanta. Head coach Tom Thibodeau can scheme the ball out of Trae Young’s hands, and Madison Square Garden will be absolutely rocking when New York starts this series. Though the Hawks do have some offensive fire-power which could make this series go 7 games.

  • Spread: NY -2.5
  • O/U: 216
  • ML for Game 1: NY -135, ATL +115
  • Series Odds: NY -105, ATL -115

Check out my Knicks vs. Hawks matchup here.



DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. LA CLIPPERS


This is going to be a very interesting series between these two squads. The Clippers are looking to make up for last season’s collapse in the playoffs. In a battle of stars, look for Luka and Kawhi to go score for score in this great matchup. Look for the role-players to decide this series. 

  • Spread: LAC -6.5
  • O/U: 222.5
  • ML for Game 1: LAC -275, DAL +215
  • Series Odds: LAC -430, DAL +315

Check out my Clippers vs. Mavs matchup here.



PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS VS. DENVER NUGGETS


The Nuggets who are without Jamal Murray are going to have to find scoring from unlikely places. Not to mention they go up against the 2nd best offense in May in the Trailblazers. Dame Time is a real thing and if the Nuggets want to advance they are going to have to contain Damian in clutch time.

  • Spread: DEN -2.5
  • O/U: 228.5
  • ML for Game 1: DEN -137, POR +112
  • Series Odds: DEN -105, POR -115

Check out my Nuggets vs. Blazers matchup here.



MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS. UTAH JAZZ


The Jazz have been on fire from 3 this season and have two candidates for 6th man of the year in Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson. Ja Morant was able to get through Steph Curry and the Warriors last night but a 7-game series with Utah might be too much.

  • Spread: UTAH -8.5
  • O/U: 215.5
  • ML for Game 1: UTAH -367, MEM +285
  • Series Odds: UTAH -625, MEM +425

Check out my Jazz vs. Grizzlies matchup here.


LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. PHOENIX SUNS 


The Lakers won their Play-in game against the Warriors to face the Suns. This Suns team led by Chris Paul has been one of the surprises of the season. After missing the playoffs in the bubble last season, acquiring CP3 has changed everything for the organization. This series should go at least 6 games if injuries stay away. 

  • Spread: PHO -3
  • O/U: 213
  • ML for Game 1: PHO -149, LAL +125
  • Series Odds: PHO +180, LAL -220

Check out my Lakers vs. Suns matchup here.



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Hockey picksMay 22, 2021

Saturday’s NHL Playoff picks tackle my top matchups, coming off another huge 4-1 night where dime bettors cranked in +$4,440 in profit. I preview today’s four games with NHL trends, odds and betting information.

NHL playoff picks saturday vegas minnesota

Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has 83 career NHL Playoff wins, ranked sixth all-time



NHL Playoff Picks, 5 of 7 Winning Days (71%)

The Saturday lineup gives hockey bettor’s exactly what they want, with games running early and often. In the early contest, Tampa Bay takes on Florida as the Panthers look to draw even in this best-of-seven series. I’ve had five winning days out of seven to start the playoffs and will have picks for today’s games ready by 11:30 am ET.

Florida at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Saturday, May 22, 12:30 PM ET
Line: Lightning -140 and 6 UN -140

Florida has had a history of starting slow in the playoffs and the Lightning took the first two games with an electric offense in Game 1, and stellar goaltending by Andrei Vasilevskiy in Game 2. Tampa has never lost a playoff series after leading 2-0, going 6-0 in franchise history. With their backs against the wall, the Panthers showed up ready to play and jumped to a 2-0 lead. Playing like the champs that they are, Tampa responded with five goals in the second period and led 5-4 into the final minutes. Refusing to quit, Florida tied the game on Gustav Forsling’s first-ever Stanley Cup Playoffs goal and went onto win 6-5 in overtime.

– With a total of 6 or more, road teams that have allowed 3-plus goals in three or more consecutive games are 64-24 UNDER (73%) off a game where 9-plus goals were scored.

The opener was played at a frenetic pace and Tampa’s scoring average in day games the past three seasons is 3.6 goals. They are 9-2 in 11 early starts but Florida had an early start against Nashville in March and put up six goals. NHL road teams with a 2-1 series lead are 20-28 (.417) but the moneyline suggests 58.3% likelihood Tampa Bay will emerge victorious.

My overall record betting hockey this season is up +58 games over .500 for a huge bankroll gain of +$22,340. I publish NHL Playoff picks almost every day — Don’t miss my next set of winners!

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Pittsburgh (2-1) at New York Islanders
Saturday, May 22, 3:00 PM ET
Line: Islanders -115 and 5.5 UN -135

Kris Letang scored two minutes into Game 3 and it wasn’t until 11:03 of the second that New York finally broke onto the scoresheet. The Pens notched two more, taking a 3-1 lead into the third and that’s when the fireworks started. When the dust settled the Pens won 5-4 and although the game was tied three separate times, New York never led.

– Islanders coach Barry Trotz has a 83-38 UNDER (69%) when playing for the third time in five days.

Tristan Jarry has shown great composure in his first real chance as the playoff starter. Jarry had one start against the Habs last season, a losing effort where he allowed just one goal. He then lost the opener of this series in overtime but made 37 saves. Now he has back-to-back wins under his belt and a .923 playoff save percentage with 2.35 goals against average. With an offense that’s scoring 3.49 goals per game (GPG), Pittsburgh’s highest average since 2011, those kinds of numbers in net are going to earn you plenty of W’s.

Follow @WunderdogSports for free NHL Playoff picks and betting trends!

Montreal (1-0) at Toronto
Saturday, May 22, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Maple Leafs -175 and 5.5 UN -120

The Leafs will be playing this one for their injured captain, John Tavares. The good news is that Tavares was released from hospital on Friday, diagnosed with a concussion. It looked like it could have been much worse after the horrific blow Tavares took from Corey Perry’s knee after Tavares was knocked down by Ben Chiarot. He left on a stretcher and the game’s playoff intensity just continued to build, Montreal eventually winning 2-1 on an unbelievable goal by Paul Byron, scored from his knees.

– Montreal’s road record vs. winning teams in the second half of the past three seasons is 21-9 UNDER (70%).
– Toronto was 17-4 SU (81%) with 6 OVERS, 14 UNDERS and a push this year when seeking revenge. Three of four losses were vs. the Canucks.

Toronto won the North by five points and finished 18 points ahead of Montreal in the standings. The Leafs were 18-7-3 at home and 7-2-1 against the Habs but there was no-one in the organization looking forward to a showdown vs. Carey Price. Out since April 19 with a concussion, Price made 35 stops in his return and his 31 career playoff wins are 31 more than Leafs No. 1 goalie, Jack Campbell. Price will need a repeat performance if Montreal hopes to steal another win, and although Tavares is out, Toronto did get Zach Hyman back from a knee injury that kept him out 11 games. When trailing a series 1-0, Toronto has a 23-21 Game 2 record all-time.

Vegas (2-1) at Minnesota
Saturday, May 22, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Golden Knights -120 and 5.5 UN -120

After taking the first game 1-0 in overtime, Minnesota has been outscored 8-3 falling behind 2-1. The Knights have a 3-1 record in Game 4 of a series when leading and NHL teams are 75% likely to win a series after taking a 2-1 lead. Given Vegas’ 21-5-2 home record this season, the Wild has officially entered ‘must win’ territory. If the Knights win today, their likelihood of taking the series jumps to 94%.

– NHL teams with a win percentage over .600 are 82-35 SU (70%) after a home loss by 3-plus goals. The Wild were 35-16-5 (.625) overall this season.

The top two lines for the Knights are nearly impossible to matchup against on the road. Minnesota has to take advantage of the last line change on home ice and play with more jump in their step for a full 60 minutes or they can pretty much mail this one in. The Wild are 6-3 all-time when hosting the Knights, including a 3-2 record this season, but Vegas has won their past two visits and held the Wild to just two goals in each contest. NHL consensus data shows 60% action on Vegas, which is the lowest of all moneyline favorites today.

In the past 12 seasons, dime bettors have collected +$218,630 with my hockey predictions and my NHL Playoff picks are on fire!

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Baseball picksMay 21, 2021

We are nearing the quarter-pole of a seven-plus month MLB season, and while it is still early, I am taking a look at MLB betting trends and the big movers on the World Series odds board.

Mookie Betts of World Series favorite, Los Angeles Dodgers

Going into this weekend’s action, there are only seven American League teams with sub-.500 records. On the other side of that coin, there are only six teams on the Senior Circuit that have a winning mark. And while the pendulum is on different ends in the different leagues, you can still see the parity in both. The Twins (50-1), Tigers (150-1), Orioles (100-1), Diamondbacks (200-1), and the Rockies (200-1) are the only teams that are more than eight games out in their division….and no team in all of MLB is more than 10 games over .500 (Giants, 28-16). A lot of teams right now are hanging out at around .500, and that has seemed to keep the 2021 World Series odds mostly steady. Note that MLB is going back to its previous playoff format with five playoff teams from each league, including the one-game Wild Card.

“Who woulda thunk it?” With one of the best records in the Bigs, the Red Sox are one of the few teams to significantly shorten their World Series odds. With few preseason expectations, Boston opened at 60-1 to win another World Series crown. The Sox opened the season by getting swept by the Orioles and then reeled off nine straight en route to the top spot in the AL East. As of this writing, Boston is now 20-1 to win the World Series.
The biggest mover on that end, though, is, of course, the Giants. Picked by most to finish 4th in the NL West, San Francisco is 14-4 at home so far and is in front of both the loaded Padres and the champion Dodgers in the standings. They opened at 100-1 and are now sitting at 40-1 to win it all. They still have a tough road ahead, but preseason Giants bettors have to like where they sit at this point.
The Brew Crew has also made a lot of early-season noise. At 21-22, they are currently in 3rd place in the NL Central (four games behind St. Louis). Milwaukee opened at 60-1 and has climbed all the way to 22-1 to win their first World Series title. This is going to be a tight race as the Cubs (66-1 open, 50-1 current) have also inserted themselves into the picture.
And though the Royals currently sit in 3rd place in the AL Central, they are only six games back and have seen their odds jump from 100-1 to 45-1, and now back to 66-1 after a recent slump. The AL Central could be a very interesting race down the stretch on its own, especially if the Twins can right the ship.

“Take it with a grain of salt.” Another interesting side to the World Series odds now vs. then, and knowing what we know now, is that not much has changed on the top end. In spite of dropping 13 of 17 earlier this month, and being in 3rd place in the NL West, the Dodgers’ odds to repeat have actually improved slightly, opening at 3.5-1 and holding strong now at 13-4. The Yankees got off to a slow start, and their odds, even with Boston’s strong start in front of them, have only gone from 5.5-1 to 7-1. And with Bombers starting to heat up, you can imagine it going back down towards the opening line.
Also in the National League, the Mets, who have only recently climbed above .500 and who I think most expected more from at this point, have held steady at 9-1 (opened at 10-1). The Cardinals have also maintained their 20-1 odds (opened at 25-1) through the first part of the season. The Cards are in 1st place right now, and I would expect the price on them to drop should they remain in 1st for much longer.

2021 MLB World Series betting odds.

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” With so many teams bunched in the standings, there haven’t been many major falls down the World Series odds board. While some teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers may not be playing up to expectations right now, it’s fairly safe to say they will be competing for the World Series when it comes down to it. A few teams, though, have shown us their true colors, and their odds to win the World Series are reflecting it. Picked by most to finish 1st or 2nd in the AL Central are the Minnesota Twins, and after stumbling to an 15-28 start, their odds to win the title have dropped from 16-1 to 50-1.
The Nationals are stacked with talent, but missed games from some of their biggest stars have them in last place in the NL East, but they are still just 4.5 games behind the division-leading Mets. If they can get their full squad on the field for any stretch of time, the 66-1 odds on the Nats to win the World Series holds excellent value, especially since they opened at 35-1.

“You can observe a lot by just watching.” Preseason futures bets are always risky due to the unknown. Betting MLB futures mid-season, though, is a great way to put to use the information we have obtained through a small, yet useful sample size. Most of the teams you may have been on before the season (the Dodgers, Mets, Braves, Yankees, Padres, etc.) are all at relatively the same price, so firing on them now would actually be more advantageous. You’re armed with more information, and you still get them at roughly the same odds.
With other teams, you will need to analyze the line value. Getting the Red Sox at 100-1 before the season started would have been great compared to the 20-1 you’d get them at today. Though, if they remain in 1st place for a couple of more months, 20-1 will probably look really good then.
While some of the pretenders are still being exposed, the contenders are all hanging in there.

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