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March 2021


Basketball picksMarch 25, 2021

My Sweet 16 trends set the table for another high profile weekend of betting College Hoops! Strong data from a handful of Sweet 16 matchups, plus the top Consensus bets.


Sweet 16 trends

College basketball bettors have had a few days to collect their thoughts after what some are calling the wildest First and Second Rounds of March Madness tournament history.

Records were set for upsets but in the Covid era, it really isn’t all that shocking. Nothing has been normal about the way last year’s season was shut down, or the way this season powered through. We are where we are, though, and Sweet 16 odds are giving everyone a chance to take another kick at the can.

Top of the Heap

Gonzaga came into the tourney like a wrecking ball and have held to their form, scoring 98 and 87 points in two double-digit wins. Creighton’s record against winning teams the past two seasons is 26-16 ATS, including a 15-5 ATS record in the second half of the season.

(5) Creighton vs. (1) Gonzaga
Sunday, March 28 at 2:10 PM ET
Line: Bulldogs -13 and O/U 158

At +277 odds and with a total of 158, Sunday’s game against Creighton projects as the second-highest Sweet 16 game of the weekend. The loftiest total belongs to Arkansas and Oral Roberts at 159. On a $100 bet, sportsbooks are paying back +$232 that the Golden Eagles and Razorbacks will be the weekend’s biggest shootout.

  • When the Zags score more than 80 points, they are 46-27 ATS the past three seasons.
  • Neutral court faves that have scored 80-plus points in back-to-back games are 55-28 ATS (66%) against an average defensive team that allows

Current odds to win the NCAA Tournament favor the Zags at +135. Next up is Baylor (+377), Michigan (+879) and Houston (+919).

Get all the latest College Basketball Lines and Odds at Wunderdog.com

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Mr. Perfect

USC coach Andy Enfield is 9-0 ATS with the Trojans in the NCAA Tournament and his flawless record is getting more attention than usual, thanks in part to widespread legalization of sports betting in America. Basically, broadcasters other than Al Michaels can now reference spread betting without getting a talking to from their network’s hallway monitor.

(7) Oregon vs. (6) USC
Sunday, March 28 at 9:45 PM ET
Line: Trojans -2.5 and O/U 139

This line opened at USC -1 and quickly jumped, despite CBB Consensus data suggesting 57% action on the Ducks. USC throttled Kansas 85-51 on Monday and they are 12-3 the past two years away from home following a double-digit win.

  • Enfield’s tournament record since 1997 is 34-18 ATS (65%).

The Ducks have won 12 of their past 14 games and Will Richardson led the team with 40 minutes in the upset win over Iowa. Richardson had 19 points, third behind Chris Duarte (23) and LJ Figueroa (21). The Ducks shot 56% overall, well ahead of their 47.6% season average.

Sweet 16 Trends: Seeing Double

With all the upsets in Rounds 1-2, it was only a matter of time before bettors started showing the underdogs some love. According to my Consensus numbers, the money on three of four double-digit seeds is rolling in.

Oral Roberts leads the way with 75% action as an 11.5-point dog. Syracuse is fetching 68%, followed by Oregon State at 64% from contrarian bettors. Here are some Sweet 16 trends supporting the underdog this weekend.

(15) Oral Roberts vs. (3) Arkansas
Saturday, March 27 at 7:25 PM ET
Line: Razorbacks -11.5 and O/U 159

Arkansas has played UNDER four consecutive games, including their 68-66 win over Texas Tech.

  • Neutral court favorites that average 77-plus points per game are only 32-64 ATS (33%) following a string of three or more UNDERS.

The Razorbacks scored 82 PPG this season, including 79.8 on the road. In their past five, the pace has slowed down a touch to 76.2 per game. Note that the Golden Eagles have allowed 75.7 PPG on the year. They are also 7-0 ATS this season when scoring 75-80 points on the road.

Follow @Wunderdog for Sweet 16 free picks on the weekend!

(11) Syracuse vs. (2) Houston

Saturday, March 27 at 9:55 PM ET
Line: Cougars -5.5 and O/U 140

The Saturday nightcap sees a pair of teams that are both averaging more than 35% shooting from beyond the arc.

  • The Orange possess a 42-19 ATS (69%) record as a neutral site dog since 1997.

Houston has won nine in a row since Feb. 21, going 6-3 ATS. With all the top seeds from the Midwest eliminated, they can taste the Elite 8 but covering is another story.

(12) Oregon State vs. (8) Loyola Chicago
Saturday, March 27 at 2:40 PM ET

Line: Ramblers -6.5 and O/U 125.5

It looks as if the UNDER is getting attention in this Midwest matchup, down from an opener of 126. There is a high volume angle supporting the move, where strong defensive teams like Loyola are 202-141 UNDER (59%) on neutral court against average defensive teams. The Ramblers allowed just 55.8 points this season, holding No. 1 seed Illinois to 58 in last weekend’s upset.

  • Hot shooting teams like the Ramblers, that hit more than 47% their past three-straight, are 85-132 ATS (39%) vs. a foe that held its last opponent to less than 33% shooting.

Loyola Chicago has shot 47-plus-percent in five-straight games. The Beavers held Oklahoma State to 27.7% in their 80-70 victory on Sunday.

I’ll have more on all eight matchups of the Sweet 16, as well as my premium picks, at Wunderdog.com — Get my March Madness picks and get in on the winning!

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Hockey picksMarch 20, 2021

My Saturday NHL trend sheet has hockey trends and betting tips for tonight’s primetime tilts between the Rangers and Capitals, Flyers vs. Islanders and Jets vs. Oilers.

March Madness has taken the country by storm and the National Hockey League is following suit with four early starts on Saturday. In the later window, 18 more teams are dropping the puck and my Saturday NHL trend feature has the data you need to place your bets.


My 2021 NHL season has been nothing short of phenomenal, with a 60 percent hit rate since they got underway on January 13. Overall, my record is 116-76 and dime bettors have added +$21,610 to their bankroll. My 1.5-unit plays are 28-15 (65%) and 2-unit Max Plays are posted at 9-1 (90%), for +$8,270 in profit. Teams are buckling down and now is a great time to grab a piece of the action!

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Saturday NHL Trend Sheet

New York Rangers at Washington
Line: Capitals -140 and 5.5 OVER -120

The Capitals have won seven in a row, taking the first half of this divisional double header 2-1 on Friday night. Alex Ovechkin tallied twice for the East-leading Caps, extending his goal scoring streak to five straight.

New York’s offense had shown signs of life lately, capped by Wednesday’s nine-goal breakout vs. the Flyers, but on the season the Blueshirts are averaging just 2.93 goals per game (GPG), 16th in the league. Today marks the fourth meeting between these teams in the shortened 2021 season. New York took the first two down but Washington holds a 6-1 advantage in home games since 2017.

  • Saturday NHL Trend: Home home favorites up to -150 that have won eight or more of their past 10 are 12-30 (29%), with a home record in the 60-70% range over the past 10 seasons.

Washington has thrived on this heavy-workload type of season, going 16-4 when playing their third game in five days. They are also 13-4 playing a 4-in-7. Early consensus rankings for Saturday show the Capitals at 73 percent, but with Ovechkin’s recent scoring spree, it won’t surprise me to see them climb even further throughout the day.

My March Madness package is still available and I have a loaded card for Saturday. Follow @Wunderdog and don’t miss out on my next winner!

Philadelphia at New York Islanders
Line: Islanders -142 and 5.5 UNDER -120

Don’t look now but the Islanders have lost back-to-back games. In what had turned into a month-long hot streak, New York gained points in 12 consecutive contests and part of this season’s success is thanks to a 12-1-2 home record.

The Flyers are a money making machine for OVER bettors this year, going 20-8 (71%), but their erratic play in the last while turns them into a coin toss play for side bettors. Today is a 3-in-4 situation for Philly and the OVER is 9-1-1 for them in this spot. The Flyers are also 12-3-1 OVER in their past 16 games vs. a winning team, making this line look suspiciously low.

  • Saturday NHL Trend: As a home favorite, the Islanders are 14-5 with revenge the past two seasons.

For a contrarian angle, the Islanders are 15-5 UNDER when playing with triple revenge and Philly has taken all three meetings this season. It should be noted though, that New York was 7-3 in this series last season, including playoffs.

Winnipeg at Edmonton
Line: Oilers -135 and 6 OVER -115

Ovechkin might be hot but Oilers captain Connor McDavid is not about to let Ovi have all the fun. McDavid leads the league with 58 points (20 G, 38 A) and he’s just one back of Leafs phenom Auston Matthews (21) in the scoring race. McDavid had two markers in a 2-1 win over the Jets on Thursday, extending the team’s home win streak to five. The Oilers have outscored their opponents 21-8 on home ice during this run.

  • Hot home teams up to -150 that have won six or seven of their past eight are just 22-44 over the past five seasons.
  • Winnipeg is 10-1 this season off a road loss.
  • Coach Paul Maurice’s all-time record with the Jets is 35-13 following a one-goal loss to a division rival.

The Oilers have moved into a tie for first atop the North division and they are playing great hockey both home and abroad. The Jets sit just two points back from Edmonton and are showing a 8-5-1 road record. Winnipeg is 1-2 in Edmonton this year but the offense has struggled in the two losses, scoring a total of just three goals. Winnipeg is eighth in scoring with 3.3 GPG and Edmonton’s defense was considered a weak spot early on, but the Oil have climbed into 16th, allowing an average of 2.9 GPG.

Saturday means a big night on the ice and my NHL picks are hot. Grab tonight’s picks now!

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Basketball picksMarch 18, 2021

My March Madness picks for the opening round are coming together and if the past few weeks are any indication, this is going to be a wild weekend. I’ve also released my 2021 NCAA bracket and in the past nine years, my first round bracket picks have cleaned up, going 226-62 (78%). This is the moment we’ve all been waiting for!


March Madness picks

Thursday’s action tips off at 5:10 pm ET, when Mount St. Mary’s and Texas Southern lock horns in the first of four play-in games. Oddsmakers see this as a fairly even match, with major online sportsbooks showing a line of Pick em or Texas Southern -1.

The Tigers have won nine in a row and 14 of 15, but they shouldn’t take this Mountaineers team lightly. Mount St. Mary’s (12-10) has been gaining momentum all year and they do have a pair of wins in this round, the latest coming in 2017.

NCAA First Four Schedule

Here are four matchups for Thursday, with start times and updated lines. Grab my top picks for these games.

(16) Mount St. Mary’s vs. (16) Texas Southern
Line: Tigers -1 and O/U 133 (5:10 pm ET)

(11) Drake vs. (11) Wichita State
Line: Bulldogs -1 and O/U 141.5 (6:27 pm ET)

(16) Norfolk State vs. (16) Appalachian State
Line: Mountaineers -3 and O/U 133.5 (8:40 pm ET)

(11) UCLA vs. (11) Michigan State
Line: Spartans -2 and O/U 135.5 (9:57 pm ET)

In the past three weeks, my College Basketball picks are 64-46 (58%). Dime bettors have added +$16,870 to their bankroll and I’m just getting started. Don’t miss out on my March Madness picks!

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Bracket Attack

The Over/Under on ‘Number of brackets’ that most people I talk to are filling out this year is 7.5. As the hype builds towards Friday, that number will probably go up, too.

  • Over the past 15 tournaments, the higher-ranked team has won 71% of all games straight up.
  • Gonzaga’s odds of winning the West are -245 and the Zags have a 42% chance of making it to the finals.

The top five teams when comparing odds against public consensus are Iowa (-14.5), Wisconsin (+1.5), Purdue (-7.5), Colorado (-5.5) and Houston (-20.5). It doesn’t mean these teams are going to win it all, but if you like playing contrarian angle they could be right up your alley.

Based on scoring averages and recent form, the three teams waving a red flag are Wichita State (67.4 points against), Missouri (71.9) and Florida (69.8). Drake scored 77.4 points per game (PPG) this season, too.

  • Wichita State is 17-50 ATS (25%) when they allow 75-80 points.

Missouri takes on Oklahoma (-1) on Saturday at 7:25 pm in the West. Public consensus shows the Sooners at 66% but this is one of the most even matchups is the opening round. Over/Under bettors will want to consider this trend:

  • Oklahoma is 81-51 UNDER (61%) in games where the line is within +/- 3 points of Pick em.

Get the edge you need to win your bracket this year. I’m 78% with my opening round picks over the past nine years and my completed bracket is available now.

March Madness Picks & Trends, First Round

Friday and Saturday is when the Big Dance really begins. NCAA Tournament bettors will have 32 games to feast on and this is when my March Madness picks will really kick into gear. Here are some key betting trends for the weekend.

Hartford vs. Baylor
Line: Bears -26 and O/U 140.5

A steep ATS line hasn’t been enough to keep 68% of the public off Baylor in this one. The total, however, has been bought down from 142.

  • In the first round, the UNDER is 107-61 (64%) when the total is between 140-149.5 and the favorite has won at least 12 of its past 15 games.

Baylor comes into this year’s tourney as the top ranked 3-point shooting team (41.8%). Note that Baylor is paying back at 6/1 to win it all this year.

Liberty vs. Oklahoma State
Line: Cowboys -7 and O/U 139.5

Oklahoma State comes into this game off a 91-86 loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game. They hold the record this year with 13 wins against the field, however. Impressive when you consider that 17 of 68 teams couldn’t win a single game against the rest of the field in 2021. This spread might be a little flattering, though.

  • Good shooting teams like Oklahoma State are just 10-29 ATS (26%) on a neutral court against good defensive teams.

The Cowboys shot 46.8% this season while the Flames held opponents to just 41%. Liberty comes into this tournament hot, having won 12-straight.

I won eight consecutive days to start the month and my March Madness picks are ready to rock! What are you waiting for?

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Hockey picksMarch 13, 2021

NHL scoring patterns through the first two months, with moneyline and Over/Under betting trends you can bank on. Plus, Saturday Hot Shots with odds, trends and handicapping info on two of tonight’s games.


Scoring in the NHL has followed an interesting pattern in this unique season. And whether you choose ‘game numbers’ — specific to each team — or dates on the calendar, there is a good chance that the trends correlate with the point each team is at in their series against any given opponent.

NHL Scoring patterns

When the season started, offensive teams had the upper hand. Home teams, on an average moneyline of -116, posted a 59-34 (63%) record in their first six games and the OVER was 50-41-2 (55%). The average Over/Under odds were 5.9.

During the next couple weeks, as oddsmakers adjusted, the average moneyline increased to -127 for home teams but the win percentage dropped to 51%. At 56-55, these teams were just a hair above .500 and once you factored in the juice, chalk bettors who had raked a +21.8% return on investment (ROI) through the early going, were now down -8.6 units for a return of -5.6%.

Totals on the second set of games were nearly identical to the first set, averaging 5.8 per game. Yet the teams, who were now facing their division rivals for the second or third time in the shortened season, were playing a tighter brand of hockey. The 111 games in this set landed dead even at 54 OVERS and 54 UNDERS, with a few pushes.

The next stretch I’ve identified was when teams were playing their 14th to 21st games on the slate. For the most part, these games ran during a 17-day period from Feb. 15 to March 3. The moneyline for home teams tracked back a few points after their mediocre performance in the second segment, averaging -122. It was not even close to matching their fall, as the home side finished 54-69 (44%). Dime bettors would have lost -$29,420 by blanket betting this group, a -17.8% ROI. Over/Under odds stayed at 5.8 per game but the UNDER hit 60%, going 71-47-5.

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NHL Scoring Patterns

Based on the data above, you can see a distinct pattern over the course of the season to date. Average line is based on the home teams, who were favored in 73% of all NHL games over the past 10 years.

  • Section 1: Average line -116, win rate of 63%, with the OVER hitting 55%
  • Section 2: Average line -127, win rate of 51%, with the OVER/UNDER splitting at 50%.
  • Section 3: Average line -122, win rate of 44% with the OVER hitting just 40%

Follow @Wunderdog and don’t miss any of my NHL picks! In the past 12 years, I’ve gained more than $210,000 on the ice for dime bettors!

The Cycle is Complete

Anyone watching hockey over the past week has been treated to a fair share of high scoring games.

  • March 4: 6 OVERS and 2 UNDERS
  • March 5: 2 OVERS and 1 UNDER
  • March 6: 7 OVERS and 3 UNDERS
  • March 7: 3 OVERS and 2 UNDERS (plus 2 pushes)
  • March 8: 1 OVER and 5 UNDERS
  • March 9: 5 OVERS and 2 UNDERS (plus 1 push)
  • March 10: 3 OVERS and 1 UNDER (plus 1 push)
  • March 11: 8 OVERS and 2 UNDERS
  • March 12: 2 OVERS and 2 UNDERS (plus 1 push)

The OVER since March 4 is 41-23-6, or 64% on an average total of 5.8 goals. I’ll also note that home teams in this span are 37-28 (57%) on an average line of -127.

These are typical patterns in sports betting, where the public follows the money, the bookmaker adjusts, and things even out. The old saying is that the house never loses, and it’s more than just a cliche. In this particular season, however, it’s more important than ever to pay attention to these three elements when handicapping hockey.

  1. Number of times these teams have faced each other this season.
  2. Each team’s points percentage (total points divided by maximum points).
  3. Recent form, paying extra mind to teams coming off blowouts. This year, teams off a loss by four goals or more are 32-26 (55%), the second-highest win percentage for this group in 15 years (2016).

Saturday Hot Shots

Quick-hit previews for two of today’s matchups. See if any of the NHL scoring patterns from above fit the profile of these contests.

Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Line: Penguins -212 and 6 UN (-115)

The Penguins took the first meeting between these teams 5-2 on Thursday in Buffalo. A clear mismatch from 2007-2017, the Pens were 29-9 against the Sabres in that span. Things started to change the past two years, though, where Buffalo took four of six games.

Pittsburgh in 11th in points-percentage at .635 and the Sabres are dead last at .320. Buffalo also ranks 30th with a paltry 8.0 shooting percentage. The Pens are sixth at 11.1%.

  • The UNDER is 35-9 for Buffalo after they’ve taken fewer than 27 shots on goal for five consecutive games.

The Swords have lost seven-straight in the above shots-on-goal profile. They are also 20-6 UNDER off a home loss by two or more. The UNDER streak there is at seven and the losing streak is eight-straight. Yikes! Pittsburgh has a couple games against Boston up next, so there’s a small chance of a look-ahead. Either way, this isn’t shaping up like much of a shootout.

San Jose at Anaheim
Line: Ducks -110 and 5.5 OV (-110)

The Sharks shut out the Ducks 6-0 last night, giving them a 3-1 edge in the season series. Each of the first three meetings was decided by a one-goal margin.

  • Anaheim is 11-3 (79%) against division rivals following a blowout loss by four goals or more.

In home games, the Ducks are 7-1 in this spot, the lone loss coming against the Blues in January, who are only considered a division rival of Anaheim since the Covid realignment.

NHL Wins Again — My NHL picks are 101-66 (61%) through the first two months of the season, resulting in a +$19,270 bankroll increase. My Max Plays are an unbelievable 9-1 (90%) this season, contributing +$8,270 to the pot. Grab my Saturday Hockey picks now!

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Basketball picksMarch 11, 2021

NBA futures betting was a big focus for pro handicappers over the All-Star break. Divisional and Conference odds, and of course the odds to win the 2021 NBA Championship. I’ve looked at the top contenders as the second half gets underway, highlighting trends and tips for you to keep in mind as the stakes go up. Included are some key NBA trends for Thursday and Friday night’s matchups.


NBA Second Half Underway

As the NBA second half gets going, odds to win the 2021 NBA Finals will start to take shape. After comparing the odds at a couple of different online sportsbooks, I’ve listed the 10 teams that are paying back up to a maximum of 40-to-1. If one of the teams not on this list happens to win the NBA Finals and you call it, good on you!

I won my first March Madness Max Play last night and the past two weeks, I’m 52-28 (65%) with my College Basketball picks! I’ve had 12 winning days out of 15 (80%), good for a +$26,080 profit by dime bettors. Get my March Madness package today!

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Top 10 NBA Futures Betting Odds

Topping the list is none other than the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. The champs stumbled a little before the break but they have a nice matchup at home on Friday night. Odds to win the Championship are noted, along with straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records.

Los Angeles Lakers +270
Record: 24-12 SU and 16-18 ATS

The Lakers went 3-7 SU in their last 10 games before the layoff. Since Jan. 25, they are 6-13-1 ATS and at -5.8, their average line is still one of the steepest in the NBA. Indiana is first up for the Lake, and the Pacers (14-21 ATS) have the third-lowest cover rate in the league at 40 percent. Just inside the Eastern bubble, Indiana went 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS before the break. In their favor, the Pacers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS with extra rest the past four years.

Brooklyn Nets +290
Record: 24-13 SU and 20-17 ATS

Brooklyn will play host to the Celtics Thursday night and the early line was Nets -2.5 points. Brooklyn shot 53.9 percent in a 123-95 win over the Celts Dec. 25, and they are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run, against teams they beat by double-digits in the previous meeting. All five games went OVER the total, too. The Over/Under odds are set at 234.5 points.

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NBA futures betting 2021

Los Angeles Clippers +525
Record: 23-14 SU and 19-18 ATS

The Clippers are pumped to get back on the court after three straight road losses to end the first half. They are 1-1 against the Warriors this season, who they host tonight. LA averages 115.8 points at home this season but in their past five, they sunk to just 108.4 points. Golden State also lost three in a row before the break and their shooting away from home is starting to slip. On the year, the Warriors are hitting 44.7% but during the last three, they managed to shoot only 42.1%.

Look for a much better effort from the Clippers, who were banged up before the break. Paul George, who is second on the team with 23.7 PPG could be the difference maker. The total, however, could come down to how Steph Curry performs. Curry is posting a 47.8% shooting percentage overall, and 29.7 PPG, but he had 38 points in one game against the Warriors and just 13 in the other.

Milwaukee Bucks +750
Record: 22-14 SU and 16-19-1 ATS

The Bucks are 6-2 straight up with extra rest but they’ve only outscored opponents 111-109. That’s nowhere near the 11-point chalk they’re laying here, but the total might interest you.

  • Double-digit dogs that are well-rested have played OVER at a rate of 79 percent (26-7), when coming off a home win.

New York was home to the Pistons on March 4, beating them 114-104 and covering the 7-point line.

Utah Jazz +800
Record: 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS

Based on their incredible 20-1 run from Jan. 8 to Feb. 17, the Jazz are now projected to win 53-54 games straight up. Utah was 19-2 ATS during that hot streak but they went into the break on a 1-3 SU/ATS slide. All four games went OVER and the Jazz rank No. 1 in 3-pointers made (17.1) and attempted (42.8) per game. Utah will host the 11-23 Rockets Friday. Bottom feeders in the West, Houston has lost 12 in a row and trail the Jazz by 15 games.

Philadelphia 76ers +1400
Record: 24-12 SU and 17-18-1 ATS

True to their roots, the Sixers are showing up on value charts across the NBA futures betting board. That’s despite their slim lead atop the Eastern conference, and it has a lot more to do with the teams chasing them down. Philly’s 131-123 comeback win against the Jazz before the break has this team poised for a run and they start with the Bulls and Wizards. Both are on the road, and I should note that the Sixers are just 4-10 ATS their past 14 away from home.

Follow @Wunderdog and don’t miss my next set of winning NBA picks! I’ve made +$21,950 in the NBA the past three years, +102 games over .500!

Denver Nuggets +2700
Record: 21-15 SU and 17-18-1 ATS

Denver is listed at 8-1 to win the Northwest, and 15-1 to win the Western Conference. They return on Friday against a Grizzlies team that manhandled Washington last night, 127-112. This will be an interesting line. The Nuggs (.583) have a better win percentage and more rest, but the recent history for road teams in this scenario is just 4-12-1 ATS. Denver went into the break at fourth in the league for scoring with 115.9 points.

Boston Celtics +3100
Record: 19-17 SU and 17-19 ATS

Boston covered three-straight games before the break and with extra rest, the Celtics (10-2 ATS) have the league’s best record with extra rest. Boston is also 23-11 ATS as a dog the past two seasons.

Phoenix Suns +3200
Record: 24-11 SU and 23-12 ATS

The Suns caught fire at the end of January and since then, they possess the league’s best record both straight up and ATS. Phoenix is 15-4 (.789) in its past 19, going 16-3 ATS (84%). The Suns will mess with Portland tonight at 10 pm ET and they walloped the Blazers 132-100 on Feb. 22

  • Road faves off an ATS win as a double-digit fave are 29-7 ATS (81%) against teams they beat by 30-plus points in the past meeting.

Phoenix has 5-1 ATS edge in this series the past six meetings.

Miami Heat +3700
Record: 18-18 SU and 16-19-1 ATS

Someone had to rank 10th and at .500, the Heat have to be considered a dark horse. Miami won seven of its past eight games SU/ATS before the break, and they return to a great matchup with Orlando (12-23) in town. Miami (-4.5) fell 113-107 when these two opened on Dec. 23 but they went 3-1 last season, including two home wins. Keep in mind, the Magic started the season 4-0 SU/ATS but they are riding a current streak of six consecutive losses.

SU = Straight up
ATS = Against the Spread
O/U = Over/Under

My NBA and College Basketball picks are on a 68-44 (61%) run since lateFebruary. It’s the best time of year for hoopsters. Get on board with my winning picks today!

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Hockey picksMarch 6, 2021

My Saturday NHL betting preview looks at the Battle of Pennsylvania, as the Penguins host the Flyers. Also, the biggest NHL moneymakers on Saturday plus a rematch between the Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens.


NHL Betting preview

It is a jam-packed card for hockey bettors today, with 12 games to sort through! Don’t you just love it?

In one of the early tilts, the Philadelphia Flyers are in Pittsburgh for Round 5 of their 2021 season series. Philadelphia has taken an early 3-1 lead but the beauty of this year’s unique format is that as the season develops, the intensity in these old school rivalries will only increase. This Battle of Pennsylvania is the first of four games I’ve previewed for you to get the weekend started. Let’s go!

Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Saturday, 03/06 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: Flyers -112 and 6 OV -110

These teams split a pair of games earlier this week and Thursday, it looked as if the Pens were set to even the season series when they jumped to a 3-0 lead in the first four minutes. But as Philadelphia has proven all year, three goals is not going to cut it on Broad Street.

  • The Flyers are 11-1-1 this season when holding opponents to three goals or less.

Philly ranks fourth in scoring with 3.35 goals per game (GPG). Seven of the past 11 vs. Pittsburgh played OVER, including four of six in the Steel City. It’s never UNDER until it’s over with the Flyers, either. Philadelphia is fifth in third period goals with 26, but they’ve also surrendered 22 in the final frame.

  • Philadelphia is 21-8 OVER in road games with a total of 6 or more the past two seasons.

The Penguins have struggled to get their offense untracked and Thursday’s first period breakout ended a four-game scoreless streak in the opening 20. They are also 22-9 UNDER the past three years when coming off close, one-goal loss. The past nine times this was live, Pittsburgh was 8-1 UNDER. They are also on a 8-1 run straight up in home games off a one-goal loss. Should be a good one.

My NHL picks are 91-60 (60%) through the first two months of the season, good for a +$17,240 bankroll increase. In the past two weeks alone, I’m 38-20 (66%) at the rink, hauling in +$13,090 for dime bettors, with moneyline, puck line and totals all cashing large. My winning picks are waiting for you today. Get on board!

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NHL Betting Preview: Saturday Stars

In the past five years, the three teams with the highest Saturday win percentages are Boston (.625), Washington (.615) and Tampa Bay (.592). All three are off today but I will note that the two most profitable teams in that same span are the New York Rangers (+$19,880) and Edmonton Oilers (+$13,250).

New York (-125) is in Jersey to take on the Devils and Edmonton (-125) hosts Calgary.

  • The Rangers are 102-58 (64%) in road games against sub-400 win percentages. When favored, New York is 43-20 (68%) the past 15 years, including a current win streak of five straight.
  • Edmonton is 20-10 (67%) the past two years after losing by two or more goals. Included in this trend is a 4-1 record on Saturday games.

This would have been Calgary’s first game with Darryl Sutter back behind the bench, if not for Covid protocol. Sutter was hired to replace Geoff Ward, who was fired Thursday. Instead, assistant Ryan Huska will call the shots today and Sunday against Ottawa.

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Sutter took the Flames to the Cup Finals in his first stint as head coach from 2002-06. He also won two Cups with the Kings in 2012 and 2014. It’s a good opportunity for the Oilers to extend their win streak over Calgary, and rinse the bad taste of that series vs. Toronto. Edmonton was outscored 13-1 in three consecutive losses to the Leafs. In the last meeting on Feb. 20, Edmonton lit the Flames up, 7-1.

Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens
Saturday, 03/06 7:00 PM Eastern
Line: Canadiens -140 and 5.5 OV -120

My next NHL betting preview heads to the Northeast, where the Jets tangle with the Habs in a rematch of Winnipeg’s 4-3 overtime win on Thursday. In January, I mentioned a trend for teams facing immediate revenge and with the Jets, the lean is to the UNDER. Winnipeg is 8-3-2 UNDER in this spot including a 5-1 UNDER run since Feb. 4.

  • After losing as a favorite (Montreal), teams with revenge are 94-56 UNDER (63%) when they have a win percentage between .400-.500.

This has been a tale of two seasons for Montreal in terms of scoring. The first 10 games, the Habs averaged 4.4 GPG. Since then, Montreal’s average has sunk to 2.3 GPG and they’ve averaged just one win in their past seven (1-2-4). They’re earning points in Dominique Ducharme’s new system but they have fallen to fourth place. Once Calgary gets Sutter in place, the battle royal for the final two playoff spots in the North will be on!

It’s a huge card in the NHL today and I’m hitting 60% this season for +$17,240. Don’t miss my next set of NHL winners!

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