It’s a big day on the hardwood and my Saturday NBA trends and tips set you up for success. Over/Under trends, a Jazz vs. Magic preview and a look at the first half numbers for the Pacers and Knicks. Plus, I’m on a 14-1 (93%) run with my College picks, so let’s go!
There are seven NBA games on the docket for tonight, including the New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs. The Pod (14-18) are making a modest bid towards the .500 club, with seven wins in their past 13 games, but there is a much bigger trend at stake with these Bayou Birds.
- The Pelicans have played 19 OVERS, 1 UNDER and 1 PUSH in their past 21 games.
On the road, New Orleans started the season with six-straight unders. Since then, the OVER is 9-0-1, and many of the margins weren’t even close. Seven of those 10 latest road dates sailed OVER by double-digits. Four of 10 were by 25 points or more!
New Orleans ranks fourth in league scoring at 115.5 and fifth for points in the paint at 52.1. They are also fourth in rebounds, with 54.7, but life has not been kind to this team outside the arc. Their accuracy is middle of the road at 36.5 percent, but the Pelicans only attempt 32.5 long balls per game. The league average is 34.6 and in today’s NBA, road teams that lug fewer than 35 bombs per game are just 38-48 (.381) straight up. The payback for bettors on this group isn’t much to write home about either.
- Road teams attempting fewer than 35 three-pointers per game are 51-73-2 ATS (41%).
This NBA trend is moving in the wrong direction, too. The past two weeks, 30 teams have qualified for this profile and just eight have covered. The stat line reads 8-21-1 ATS (28%) and tonight, it points away from the Pelicans (32.5) and Kings (33.5).
It’s hard to get a read on the Spurs right now, given what the team has endured the past two weeks. They were on a 5-1 run before the recent nine-day layoff but lost to the Thunder (14-19) upon their return. Check the status of the Spurs starting lineup before making any heavy wagers on this contest. You might want to consider the Pelicans team total as an option, too.
SU = Straight up
ATS = Against the Spread
O/U = Over/Under
Getting in the Groove
Since February 1, the Nets (9-3 ATS), Suns (10-4 ATS) and Blazers (9-5 ATS) have been some of the top money makers for NBA bettors. No one can top what Utah Jazz (10-3 ATS) have done, however, and Quin Snyder’s team is in Orlando tonight, with a lot of wood to chop.
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic
Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 8:00 PM ET
Line: Jazz -10.5 and O/U
Utah (26-7) was in Miami last night, losing 124-116 to the Heat. The Jazz led through one and played a solid third quarter, but Miami made huge plays down the stretch to earn their fifth consecutive SU/ATS win.
- As a road fave off an ATS loss, the Jazz are 14-6 ATS (70%) the past three seasons.
Donovan Mitchell scored 30 for Utah and the loss sinks them to 13-4 ATS this season when Spida scores at least 24. The Jazz were outmuscled on the boards, 50-36, tying their worst rebounding effort of the season. Off a sub-45 rebounding effort this season, the Jazz are 9-3 ATS, but there are trends suggesting that linemakers have gone too far here.
- Favorites of 10 or more with .750 or better win-percentage, that are 2-1 ATS in their past three, are just 69-122 ATS (36%) against foes with a .250 to .400 win-percentage.
Orlando has won three of five SU/ATS but they were no match for the Nets on Thursday, losing by 37.
- Double-digit home dogs off a 25-point blowout loss are 38-21 ATS (64%).
The Magic have struggled early in games, allowing 29.4 first quarter points (25th). If they can withstand an early barrage from the Jazz, they’ll have a chance to hang around. Utah can explode in the second half, but they are only outscoring the Magic by 5.7 on average. An outright upset seems unlikely but on no rest, the backdoor could be left swinging open.
Follow @Wunderdog for more Saturday NBA Trends and tips!
The New York Knicks (16-17) have won five of seven, pulling into a tie with Boston for fourth in the Atlantic. They’re coming off a 140-point effort on Thursday against the Kings, and suddenly the shooting, which ranks near the bottom in every major category, is showing signs of life.
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 8:00 PM ET
Line: Pacers -1 and O/U 219.5
New York has played UNDER in 22 of 33 games, but there is another betting opportunity to keep an eye on with Tom Thibodeau’s group: First Half Moneyline
In their past 10 games, the Knicks have scored an average of 60.6 first half points, third-highest in the NBA. Indiana (15-16), meanwhile, ranks #15 on the season with 56.5 first half PPG, and in their past 10, the Pacers have fallen off the pace, scoring only 52.0 before the break.
- New York is 23-10 ATS (70%) in the first half this season, outscoring opponents 54.9-52.7.
The Knicks don’t show a history of coming out flat off a breakout game. They are 9-1 ATS in the first half off a win by 15 or more, and 12-3 ATS of a win by any margin.
Indiana is 45-25 UNDER (64%) in the first half against teams the force few turnovers, but New York has started to increase their pressure, with 14 per game the past three. Besides, the Knicks are playing up tempo out of the gate. With a chance to hit .500 for the first time since Jan. 10, they’ll be looking for a fast start today.