January 2021


Hockey picksJanuary 30, 2021

NHL betting trends are just one piece of the puzzle, but when combined with the rest of my hockey handicapping skill, the sportsbooks are in trouble. My NHL picks have won 11 of 16 (69%) days this season for an overall record of 27-16 (63%). That’s +$7,330 in profit and I’m just getting started. Enjoy this article on NHL betting trends and check out my Instagram for free picks and daily winners!

Senator Sell-Off

The Ottawa Senators have proven a lot of things during their current seven-game road trip. None of them good. Since opening with an upset win against rival Toronto, the runts of the North have been outscored 4.7 to 1.7, losing seven-straight (0-6-1).

Coach D.J. Smith’s team ranks dead last in goals allowed (4.50 per game), and fourth from the bottom in goals-for (3.13). They have the lowest shooting percentage (6.8%) and save percentage (.858), and when every game is considered divisional, there is little opportunity for a club lacking talent to catch a break.

Check out my NHL Consensus Data here. Updated odds, puck line bets and Over/Under percentages for every game!


NHL betting trends for Saturday and Sunday games

I have daily, weekly, monthly, and full season NHL packages available now. Click here to get my NHL picks!


I’ve cashed large with my Hockey picks over the years, hauling in +$203,620 the past 12 seasons. This year alone, I’ve posted 11 winning days of 16 (69%). Follow @Wunderdog and don’t miss a single play!

NHL Betting Trends

Look-ahead games are a real thing against mismatched, non-divisional or non-conference opponents. But in the new NHL, those games don’t exist.

Consider these statistics:

  • NHL teams on a two-plus win streak have a win percentage of just .474 when hosting a non-conference foe in a slump (2-3 losses).
  • In conference matchups that otherwise have the exact same circumstances, the home win percentage jumps to .616.

Home teams have had a win-rate of .600 or better every season since 2012. The average rate in the past nine seasons is .657, including a 3-1 record so far in 2021.

Oilers On-deck

The Sens are in Edmonton for two starting Sunday. Top scorers Connor McDavid (5 G, 9 A) and Leon Draisaitl (6 G, 7 A) are licking their chops but they better not get too cocky.

  • Ottawa is 10-1 its past 11 in Edmonton, including a current streak of six-straight wins since 2014.

They get a familiar face for a home-and-home against Montreal next.

  • The Sens are 1-6 their past seven against the Habs, scoring two goals or fewer in all seven games.

I correctly predicted the Senators and Canucks to play UNDER on Thursday, and with the way things are going for this squad, betting totals may end up being the most valuable play on the board.

OVER is the Order

The NHL’s North division leads the league in scoring with 6.7 total goals per game — more than a goal above what the East, West and Central are averaging. There is a Florida Panthers team flying under the radar, however, and don’t look know but they are currently tied for 4th in scoring with Washington Capitals (3.75 GPG).

Florida missed a couple dates against Dallas due to Covid regulations. Thus, the Panthers have played only four games, but they won three. On Thursday, the Jackets took down the Panthers in a shootout, qualifying the Cats for this Over/Under system.

  • NHL Betting Trends = 66% — Play the OVER when a high win-percentage team is coming off a divisional road loss in the first half of the season.

The OVER is 54-28 in this system and Florida at Detroit is “live” on Saturday. The Panthers are -175 favorites with a posted total of 6 OVER -110.

Read my latest Super Bowl LV betting preview for key trends on the side and total!

Trend-Set-Match

In my latest NHL article I talked about the high volume of back-to-backs this year. The Top 3 teams were Montreal, Nashville and Boston, and so far this season those three are 6-1 (86%) in this situation.

The Maple Leafs didn’t qualify as a top team in that profile, but they have won five-straight times when following a win against the same opponent. Toronto scored four-plus goals in four of five, and they are “live” on Saturday in a rematch against the Edmonton Oilers.

Toronto currently ranks third in the NHL with a 39.3% power play. The Oilers penalty kills is 21st at 75.9%.

  • The Leafs are 21-11 OVER the past two seasons against below average penalty kills.
  • Edmonton is 15-6 OVER the past two years vs. strong power play teams.

The Oilers have given up 17 markers in their past four games. Current NHL odds on this game read 6.5 OV -113.

My primary Super Bowl picks in the past 13 years have an incredible 12-1 (92%) record. I’ve hit 68% overall with my Super Bowl picks and props, including a 17-5 (77%) record the past two years. Get my Super Bowl LV picks here.

 

Football picksJanuary 28, 2021

Early Super Bowl LV betting trends, player updates and line moves as the world gets set for the matchup of all matchups. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, going at it from Raymond James in Tampa, Florida.

Brady is Back

By now, if Tom Brady hasn’t won the hearts of even the coldest, anti-Patriots football bettors of all-time, he has certainly won their respect. The GOAT led his new team to an 11-5 straight up record. He then took them on the road for three-straight playoff wins against formidable foes. Guys like Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. The results speak for themselves:

Wild Card Round: Bucs at Washington = 31-23 W

Divisional Round: Bucs at Saints = 30-20 W

NFC Championship: Bucs at Packers = 31-26 W

Then if it wasn’t enough to be playing in his 10th career Super Bowl, TB12 gets to be the first-ever team in 55 tries to host and play in the game. It’s really just incredible.

Read on for my top Super Bowl LV betting trends and get my picks for the big game here!


Super Bowl LV Betting Trends Kansas City at Tampa Bay, Mahomes Brady

Brady’s playoff record in games with a short line is 9-6 ATS (60%), but Mahomes is 22-4 away from Arrowhead, covering at a 63% rate


(1) Kansas City at (5) Tampa Bay
Sunday, 02/07, 6:30 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3 and O/U 56

Tampa Bay has won seven consecutive games. They have scored a minimum of 30 points in six of those seven, averaging 34.3 per game.

  • Any team off a bye week that’s scored 30-plus points in three or more consecutive games is 18-10 ATS (64%).

Nice win percentage, but 28 games is a very limited sample. When you start looking at teams like Tampa that have scored 30-plus points in six or seven of their past seven games, the story starts to turn.

  • Teams with 30-plus points in six or seven of their past seven games are 29-49 ATS (37%).

The latter includes a recent run of 5-15 ATS (25%) that began in 2017. The high-scoring team that hit the pavement hard that February 5 was the Atlanta Falcons. Does it ring a bell? It should, because Brady was on the other side, engineering one of the greatest comebacks in Super Bowl history.

  • In the past 10 years, home teams off a game where 50-plus points were scored are 42-75 ATS (36%) when they’ve scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games.
  • Extremely high totals of 53 or more played OVER at a rate of 77% (17-5).

It’s worth noting that in each of Brady’s two previous Super Bowl wins (2016, 2018), he also rode in on impressively high scoring streaks. The Chiefs don’t shape up at all like the Rams two years ago (13-3 win). So is this going to be more of a 34-28 shootout like the win over Atlanta?

Follow @wunderdog for more Super Bowl LV betting trends, plus free picks!

Super Bowl LV Betting Trends: Totally Covered

Patrick Mahomes is in the midst of his second playoff bye week in a month. He also took Week 17 off and enjoyed a nice home field advantage against the Browns and Bills. Taking any young quarterback out of his element to face the GOAT on the road might be trouble, but Mahomes is not any young QB.

  • Mahomes has won 12 consecutive games away from Arrowhead, outscoring opponents 29.8 to 20.

Teams that have shown a strong ability to win on the road during the regular season are only 11-25 ATS (31%) from December out. In the playoffs, that record goes to 9-13 ATS but in the Super Bowl, these road warriors are just 2-7 ATS. The UNDER is 7-2. The Chiefs benefitted from this lopsided angle in 2019 when the Niners, who were 7-1 SU on the road, forced a small line from bookmakers. We know what happened there.

  • Super Bowl faves with six or more regular season road wins are 3-10 ATS but KC, who won six road games in 2019, plus a neutral site game over the Chargers, flew in the face of that trend.

Mahomes (toe) is practicing in full and will be 100% by game time. RB Le’Veon Bell (knee) was limited during practice this week but expects to play an important role behind lead back, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip).

Bucs wideout Antonio Brown missed the game in Green Bay. He’s taking this week off and we’ll have to closely monitor his progress next week.

Battle of the Heavyweights

Tampa’s defense ranks sixth overall, allowing 5.1 yards per play. The Chiefs held the Bills to 5.2 yards per play, but it was evident that Buffalo was lacking a secondary downfield option to stretch the field. KC will bring Travis Kelce, the Bucs will likely have their full assortment of offensive weapons. Stats aside, this isn’t shaping up like a low scoring game but we have all seen how Super Bowls in the past have taken on a heavyweight fight type of feel. Neither team wants to make the first mistake.

  • All Super Bowl totals with a total of 50 or greater are 7-3 UNDER.
  • The straight up winner in Super Bowls with a total of 48 or more is 10-0 ATS. Only three of these 10 games finished with more than 52 total points.

Each of these offenses ranks Top 6 in yards per play, and Top 3 in passing yards per completion. The offensive matchup is in a class of its own and while Bruce Arians is 10-1 ATS as a home dog up to +3, he’s also 10-1 UNDER in those matchups.

Andy Reid’s post-bye record is leaning UNDER at a 22-6 rate (79%). In tightly lined road games, Reid has a sparkling 47-30 ATS (61%). That includes his 17-6 ATS (74%) record as coach of Kansas City.

My primary game picks in the past 13 Super Bowls are an incredible 12-1 (92%). I’ve hit 68% overall with my Super Bowl props and picks, including a 17-5 (77%) record the past two years. Get my Super Bowl LV picks here!

 

Hockey picksJanuary 22, 2021

My NHL picks have been kicking butt and taking names this season, with an incredible eight winning nights out of the first nine! I’ll have winning NHL picks throughout the weekend, and here are some betting trends and stats to note as the season takes hold.

The New Standard of Hockey

Everyone knew things would be a little different with the National Hockey League this season. To start, the league realigned the divisions to reduce travel and coincide with border regulations between the United States and Canada.

Sponsorship rules also changed as the league had to get creative to make up for lost revenue by ticket sales. Hey, if checking the standings is now going to inspire us to buy a car or take a loan, and that means we get hockey, I’m all for it. Small sacrifice.

The schedule, which sees a dramatic increase in back-to-backs, home and homes, or a combination of the two, is huge from a handicapping standpoint. My NHL picks often factor recent results into the equation. Now, more often than before, you have to consider how teams will respond to a win/loss, blowout, etc, against the same team a day or two later.

  • To put it in perspective, there were 449 regular season back-to-backs played between 2006-2018. That’s an average of 34.5 per season.

So far in the new 2021 season, there has already by 25 back-to-backs!

My NHL picks are 16-7 (70%), earning dime bettors +$8,510 in returns through nine days. Get my next winner here!

NHL home faves are 23-11 (68%) to start the season, well ahead of their 58% win-rate since 2006


Early-Season NHL Trends

The Vegas Knights (4-0) are in the midst of playing four-straight games against Arizona. With Vegas’ elite balance of scoring, penalty kill and goaltending, they’re a complete nightmare for a Coyotes (1-2-1) team that is notoriously slow out of the gate.

  • Since 2016, the Coyotes have a league-worst .364 win-percentage (16-28) in the first 10 games of the season.

Vegas has experienced an unprecedented level of success since entering the league in 2017. Along their list of accomplishments, would you believe that the Knights have never lost a regular season back-to-back after winning the first half?

  • Vegas is 4-0 (100%) all-time in the second half of a back-to-back after winning the first game.

That’s a limited sample but it’s on the line Friday night against the Yotes. If Vegas wins, they’ll look to make it six in a row on Sunday.

Bigger sample size, the best NHL betting teams off a win against the same opponent are as follows (minimum 10 wins):

1. Montreal Canadiens = 13-3 (81%)

Current win streak is six-straight. Live Saturday night against Vancouver. The Habs are also 16-6 OVER (73%) in early season road games. The current line is Montreal -145 and 6.5 UN -115.

2. Nashville Predators = 15-5 (75%)

Current win streak is five-straight. The Preds are in Dallas for the Stars’ delayed season opener on Friday. These teams meet again Sunday. Note that in 2019, the Stars were 2-8 in their first 10 games.

Read my NFL Conference Championship preview and get my NFL Max Play here!

3. Boston Bruins = 13-5 (72%)

All four games have been decided by a one-goal margin this year. Boston scored four in the third period to force OT against Philly on Thursday, winning in a shootout. They meet again on Saturday and the current line favors Boston -146.

  • Boston was 10-2 after scoring 5-plus goals in the 2019 season.

4. Minnesota Wild = 10-5 (67%)

Trend to Note = 1 OVER and 6 UNDERS in this spot. The Wild are hosting San Jose on Friday night and again on Sunday. Minnesota has just one win against the Sharks in six tries since 2018 (Friday result pending).

5. Philadelphia Flyers = 12-6 (67%)

Second in league scoring with 19 goals through five games. Also second with a 15.3 shooting percentage. The Flyers are converting 29.6 high-danger chances into goals. Only St. Louis is better.

  • The Flyers’ recent trends after winning the first half of a back-to-back are 8-1 SU and 7-2 OVER.

NHL Picks Up The Pace

The more things change, the more they stay the same. While there are sure to be some quirks in the league’s new format, there will also be value sticking to these tried, tested and true NHL betting trends as the season shifts into second gear.

  • Regular rest cycles of exactly one day have helped home teams produce a profitable season in six of seven seasons from 2013-19.

Hockey players are creatures of habit, and this stat reinforces the theory. Conference home teams on regular rest cycles of exactly one day, three games in a row, are 229-142 (62%). A dime bettor has banked +$45,780 on this profile and Sunday, the Wild, Coyotes and Ducks will be live.

Follow @Wunderdog on Twitter & check out my Instagram feed for more trends and free NHL picks.

 

Football picksJanuary 21, 2021

Conference Championship betting has started to gather steam as we head into Round 3 of this year’s NFL Playoffs. I’m rolling out three premium sections for Sunday, including a big, Max Play.

Tom Brady has played in a handful of spectacular Conference Championship matchups over his career. He’s defeated Patrick Mahomes (2018), Ben Roethlisberger (2016), Peyton Manning (2003), and rewritten the record book with some of these performances.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have quite the legacy of Brady (yet), but he does have a career 100.4 playoff rating. Rodgers is 11-8 in the postseason with a 64.3 completion percentage and insane 42:12 TD-to-INT ratio. He also has a lifetime 80-18-1 SU home record (62-35-2 ATS), including one notch against the GOAT back in 2014.

These two going at it on Conference Championship Sunday from Lambeau Field is about as good as it gets. Best part is that it’s just the warm up!

Buffalo and Kansas City will battle for their ticket to Super Bowl LV on the AFC side, and the latest consensus is that Mahomes will be under center for the Chiefs. Mahomes is dealing with concussion protocol as well as a toe injury. He was limited during practice on Wednesday and as the speculation builds, all eyes are on the oddsmaker’s line.

Sportsbooks opened at Chiefs -3 points and if last year’s Super Bowl MVP is confirmed, it could go as high as -4. If Mahomes’ condition worsened, Chad Henne would get the start and that could drop this line to Pick em, but Kansas City fans aren’t hearing any of that talk right now. Regardless of who starts, it sounds like RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) could return, and the home side is going to need all hands on deck.

  • The Bills have won eight in a row and playoff dogs on a win streak of two or more games are 40-18 ATS (69%) against foes that won 13 or more games during the regular season.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Conference Championships NFL betting trends, plus free picks!


Conference Championship NFL betting preview

Since 2015, my NFL Playoff picks are 95-63 (60%) for +$49,430, with Max Plays hitting 68% (30-14), for +$22,630.


(5) Tampa Bay at (1) Green Bay
Sunday, 01/24, 3:05 PM Eastern
Line: Packers -3 and O/U 51

When Tampa traveled into New Orleans for last week’s matchup, they did so with a big chip on their shoulder. Two regular season blowout losses will get anyone riled, especially Brady. This time it’s the Bucs on the defensive after the 38-10 shellacking they laid on the Packers in Week 6.

  • Rodgers’ career record with revenge is 48-33 ATS (59%), including a 9-5 ATS (64%) record with same-season revenge.

A-A-Ron averaged 27 points when looking to settle the score. He scored more than the previous matchup in 70% of those games. Scoring more than 10 points won’t be a challenge, but the fact is that when Rodgers tallied more than he did in the loss, his record jumped to 39-18 ATS (68%). He went 5-1 SU/ATS during this predicament in 2020, putting up 30-plus points of offense in all six games. The five wins were each by a minimum of seven points. Also note that the three home wins were by margins of 14-26-14 points.

  • December-January road teams with a winning record are only 16-33 ATS (33%) off a road dog win.

The words ‘Brady’ and ‘letdown’ don’t belong in the same sentence. But after taking down the Saints, it will take a lot of mental discipline for this entire Buccaneer squad to get amped up for an even tougher opponent. 60% of the matchups in that profile played OVER, too. The past five years, eight of 10 sailed OVER the number, with road teams being outscored 31-22.

(2) Buffalo at (1) Kansas City
Sunday, 01/24, 6:40 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3 and O/U 54

Bills Mafia is trending and the question for coach Sean McDermott’s team now is can they keep up their win streak on the road. The big question for KC involves injuries to key offensive starters, but that’s normal for this time of year. What’s interesting about the Chiefs is that currently, there aren’t many other questions left to ask.

Andy Reid finally got his ring, Mahomes is the face of the NFL, and Arrowhead is without a doubt, one of the toughest places to play in all of football. Can this team repeat as champions? Fair ask, but win or lose on Sunday, these Chiefs aren’t going away for years to come.

  • Teams off a no-cover, straight up fave-win are 47-12 OVER (80%) vs. teams off a home win in the past five years.

As the no-cover kings of 2020, the Chiefs have already been in this situation three times this year, going 0-3 ATS and 3-0 OVER. The games ended with 66, 60 and 59 total points.

Buffalo scored 30 points at home this season, going 7-3 ATS. On the highway, they were just 5-3 ATS but they actually scored 31 points per game, going OVER in seven of eight.

  • At 54 total points per game, the Bills ranked 6th overall for highest average score away from home.

McDermott and Allen have an excellent 12-5 ATS (71%) record in road games vs. defenses that allow more than 62.5% completions. The Chiefs are right above that mark for the season and at home, they’ve allowed 65.6% completions. In the second half of the season, when statistical averages carry greater meaning, the Bills duo are 8-1 ATS against average secondaries but the one loss was on the road in Houston during last season’s Wild Card game.

Allen has improved his accuracy and decision making. He ranks second to none this season when picking up the blitz (19 TDs, 1,907 yards). The Chiefs were 21st in sack percentage at 5.3% and even if they do get pressure, they’re going to need a lot of points on the board to keep pace.

I have three plays on my Conference Championship card, including a big, Max Play. My NFL Max Plays have been on fire over the past two months, going 13-4 (77%) for a bankroll gain of +$15,820 for dime bettors. Get these picks right here!

 

Football picksJanuary 15, 2021

My Divisional Round NFL trends focus primarily on Sunday’s playoff matchups. The Browns are in Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady faces Drew Brees for the first time in postseason action.

When breaking down this weekend’s Divisional Round matchups, the big names say it all. Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers. Proven superstars. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have also shown us what they can do. And while all eight offenses rank inside the Top 12 for overall production, there is another stat that can’t be overlooked.

  • The Los Angeles Rams are the only remaining offense that faced a Strength of Schedule inside the Top 15.

Cleveland is routinely bashed for its soft schedule, but take a look at the sorry defenses Green Bay, Kansas City and Baltimore padded their stats against all season.

The Packers faced the Lions and Vikings twice each. Throw in the non-conference matchups vs. Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee, all of whom ranked near the league’s cellar in terms of overall D, and you start to see how Rodgers led the league in scoring with 31.8 points per game (PPG).

With 29.6 PPG, the Chiefs weren’t far behind. Their list of victims included Houston, New England, Carolina and the Raiders twice. Just don’t mention that first game against Vegas in the concourse at Arrowhead. Bit of a touchy subject.

Baltimore’s list is similar to Cleveland’s, except the Browns had to face the Ravens twice! I covered the Ravens at Bills matchup here. Notes on Sunday’s games are below.

My NFL picks are +19 games over .500 and I’ve posted a profit in 12 of 18 weeks (67%). Get my NFL Playoff picks for Round 2 and join the winning team!


Divisional Round NFL Trends

Tom Brady averaged 9.7 yards per attempt in the past month, more than 2.0 yards better than he was gaining in the first three months of the season


(6) Cleveland at (1) Kansas City
Sunday, 01/17, 3:05 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -10 and O/U 57

Cleveland is coming in hot following their 48-37 upset win over Pittsburgh. This is Kansas City’s third playoff game in the past two years involving at least one team off a playoff 40-Burger the previous week.

  • In 2018-19, the Patriots rolled in off a 41-28 win over the Chargers. It took overtime but Kansas City eventually won 37-31.
  • Last season, the Titans were in town and the Chiefs had just finished a wild 51-31 shootout vs. Houston. Once again, the Chiefs came away with a win, 35-24.

Playoff teams off a win in which they scored 40-plus points are 7-17 ATS (29%) but thanks in part to KC, the current ATS win streak is at three-straight. Also note that both playoff road teams off a playoff road win where they scored 40-plus, won against the spread.

  • Dogs of 3.5-10 points that allowed 30-plus last week are 136-79 ATS (64%) off opponents that lost by double-digits last time out.

Cleveland has a multi-faceted offense but will need to rely on its two-headed ground game to help control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field. Nick Chubb rushed for 76 yards last week, while Kareem Hunt posted 48 on the ground including two touchdowns.

  • The record for playoff teams off a playoff game where two RBs cracked 45-plus rushing yards is 30-14 ATS (68%).

Dogs of 7-10 points in the above angle are 8-2 ATS, with five of them winning straight up. Big news for Cleveland is the return of HC Kevin Stefanski. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is questionable for KC, with Darell Williams and Le’Veon Bell on tap for the bulk of the ground work.

Divisional Round Teaser Tip

Since 2009, 44 Divisional Round NFL totals went OVER at a rate of 61% (27-17). The final scores averaged 4.75 points above the total, making it seem as if teasers were a safe haven for bettors that couldn’t commit to straight wagers.

While the 10-point variety jumped to an 84% hit rate when teased OVER, be cautious hooking up a total with a 6, 6.5 or 7-point tease.

  • 64% of Divisional Round totals were unaffected by the aid of a small, two-team teaser.

It didn’t matter whether the play was OVER or UNDER. The bottom line is that 28 of 44 Divisional Round totals since 2009 landed at least 7.5 points outside the range of a two-team teaser.

Hey, these bets earned their name for a good reason. If you’re going to play a total in the Divisional Round, flat betting it is king.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Divisional Round, NFL Playoff betting trends!

(5) Tampa Bay at (2) New Orleans
Sunday, 01/17, 6:40 PM Eastern
Line: Saints -3 and O/U 52

The only thing missing from this All Pro matchup is the booming Superdome crowd. Brady struggled at times, getting this offense how he wanted it. In the end, he ranked third overall with 0.48 points per play. Only Green Bay and Buffalo were better, and the Saints ranked sixth.

New Orleans’ front seven ranks Top 5 in pass rush and run stop, and they were eighth with 2.7 QB sacks per game, but the Bucs rank second overall in pass protection.

  • Tampa Bay and New Orleans were T-7th in giveaways (1.1 per game) and road teams in this scenario are 34-14 ATS (73%) the past five years.

Tampa was a solid 60% OVER team indoors the past 15 years, with games averaging 49.5 total points. More recently, the Bucs are 12-2-1 OVER (86%) in road domes and they have a slight scoring edge, 30.3-29.7 thanks to the recent 47-7 blowout in Detroit. That game actually stayed UNDER the total but on average, their past 15 indoor road games went OVER by 10.2 PPG.

  • Three indoor road games with Tom Brady at the wheel, ended with 57-58-54 total points.

New Orleans was only 24th in the league this year for pass attempts, with 33.0. Brees missed some action with broken ribs, but he is 100% and has been flawless since returning. In 2019, the Saints averaged 36.2 attempts per game.

  • Brady has won five road games in a row vs. winning teams that average between 32-37 passes when the total is 49-plus points.

In their past 10 games, the Saints (9-1 ATS) have allowed just 14.9 PPG. Only the Eagles (24), Chiefs (32) and Vikings (33) were able to mount much of an attack. Of the seven other opponents, not one scored more than 16 points. Tampa’s 0-2 record vs. this Saints this year is the elephant in the room, and the 38-3 final in Week 9 was just plain bad. But when you think about what Brady has done in his career, and what he’s done with this team the past month? It will be a shock if this turns into a defensive battle. Leonard Fournette will start for Tampa Bay and RB Ronald Jones (quad) is a game-time decision.

I was 6-4 in the Wild Card Round for a +$3,170 gain. It was my seventh winning week out of the last 10 (70%)! I have seven primo picks for the Divisional Round to keep this streak rolling. My Max Plays are on a 12-3 (75%) run for a +$16,070 return on bankroll. Get my Round 2 NFL Playoff picks here!

 

Football picksJanuary 14, 2021

Round 2 of NFL Playoff betting kicks off Saturday and I’m building off a big opening week, where I was 6-4 (60%) including a 3-1 record with Max Plays.

The new NFL playoff betting format features just two teams off a bye in Round 2. The Chiefs and Packers are well accustomed to this role and as you might expect, the oddsmaker has each of them laying hefty lines this weekend.

Buffalo and New Orleans are the 2-seeds, but the big surprise is that all four road teams this weekend are also coming a road win. Think of it. For that to happen any time prior to 2020-21, it would have taken all four Wild Card road teams to win straight up in the opening round.

Wild Card road teams have been gaining momentum in recent years but they only went 4-0 once since league realignment in 2002. That was in 2015, and three of four winners were road faves. Their record in the Divisional Round was 0-4 straight up, losing by an average of 6.8 points per game (PPG).

  • The straight up record for Round 2 NFL playoff road teams off a win is 10-26 (.278).

Pointspreads can do marvelous things, however, and 56% of those road warriors cashed a ticket. Getting a big chunk of points was a different story, however.

  • Round 2 playoff road dogs of +7 points or more off road win are 13-6 ATS (68%).

Everyone remembers the latest team to pull such a feat. It was the Tennessee Titans, one year ago in Baltimore when the Titans (+9.5) were fresh off an upset road win in New England. No one saw Tennessee keeping pace with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens that day and this week, the dog of all dogs is none other than the Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland doesn’t have one running back like Derrick Henry that can bulldoze a defense. The Browns do rank third overall in rushing yards, though, with 147.1 per game. In case you were wondering, in 2019-20 the Titans were third in rushing with 143.5 yards per game.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Round 2, NFL Playoff betting trends!


NFL Playoff betting

Playoff dogs in the past 10 seasons have dubious 3-10 ATS record after allowing 30 points


My NFL picks are +19 games over .500 this season and I’ve posted a profit in 12 of 18 weeks (67%). Get my NFL Playoff betting package for Round 2 and get on the winning team. Click here for winning picks!

(6) Los Angeles at (1) Green Bay
Saturday, 01/16, 4:35 PM Eastern
Line: Packers -6.5 and O/U 45.5

The Rams improved to 46-23 under Sean McVay, charging into Seattle for a 30-20 victory. They also won in Week 17, 18-7 over Arizona, and this is the fifth time in 2020-21 McVay’s squad has won back-to-back games. Their record in the the third game of each series is 0-4 SU/ATS.

McVay is 3-5 ATS away off a road game, covering both times as a big dog. Overall, he’s done well in this role going 8-7 SU and 9-6 ATS as a dog of any number. The OVER is 10-5 in those games and his offense has put up 30-plus points four of the past six times as a road dog.

  • The Rams are 9-1 OVER as a road dog of +3 to +7 points since 2014.

Green Bay is rested off the bye and their only real injury concern is on the offensive line. LT David Bakhtiari tore his ACL a couple weeks ago and Jared Veldheer, signed from Indy’s practice squad, tested positive for Covid. Veldheer is out for at least a week.

  • Saturday home teams off a bye are 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS in Round 2 of NFL playoff betting.

The Packers come into this game on a streak of six consecutive wins. When riding the hot hand, the Packers have played OVER seven straight times since 2016.

  • Green Bay’s record off a 4-plus win streak is 24-10 OVER (71%).

Aaron Rodgers is 61-35-4 ATS (64%) in his career at Lambeau Field and 20-11 ATS when hosting non-divisional foes from the NFC. He’s also 10-5 ATS off a bye week, but only 2-2 ATS off a playoff bye.

(5) Baltimore at (2) Buffalo
Saturday, 01/16, 8:15 PM Eastern
Line: Bills -2.5 and O/U 50

Considering the Ravens’ success since John Harbaugh took over in 2008, it’s a little surprising that they’ve played only four home playoff games in that span. Their record in those four is 1-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 11-3 away from M&T Bank including a current streak of seven straight covers since 2011.

When the line is within +/-3 points of Pick em, the Ravens won all three playoff road games, and overall Harbaugh is 28-20 ATS (58%) in these tight matchups. But Baltimore was heavily reliant on their defense during that era. Now, it’s up to Lamar Jackson to get things done.

  • QB Jackson rushed for 136 yards in the win over Tennessee. His career road record off a 50-plus rushing yard performance is 13-2 ATS (87%).

The Bills have built a strong foundation under coach Sean McDermott, going 22-11 (.667) at home. They’ve won nine in a row as home chalk, going 7-2 ATS.

  • As a home favorite, the Bills scored 32.5 points per game this season (4th).

When Baltimore rushes for 125-plus yards, they are 11-2 ATS on the road. But when the Ravens allow more than 21 points and Jackson rushes for 50-plus yards, they are 2-10 ATS. One of the covers was Week 14 in Cleveland, the other was in 2018. That’s 10 straight losses in-between.

The OVER when Jackson gets going against tough offenses is 7-3-2. Keep an eye on the weather in this one. Buffalo is known for some pretty nasty, windy days in January and the Bills Mafia wouldn’t have it any other way.

My NFL Max Plays are 15-10 (60%) this season for a bankroll gain of +$7,550. I’ll have a huge card for Round 2, including Max Plays. Get my NFL Playoff picks here!

 

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