NHL betting trends are just one piece of the puzzle, but when combined with the rest of my hockey handicapping skill, the sportsbooks are in trouble. My NHL picks have won 11 of 16 (69%) days this season for an overall record of 27-16 (63%). Thatâ€™s +$7,330 in profit and Iâ€™m just getting started. Enjoy this article on NHL betting trends and check out my Instagram for free picks and daily winners!
The Ottawa Senators have proven a lot of things during their current seven-game road trip. None of them good. Since opening with an upset win against rival Toronto, the runts of the North have been outscored 4.7 to 1.7, losing seven-straight (0-6-1).
Coach D.J. Smith’s team ranks dead last in goals allowed (4.50 per game), and fourth from the bottom in goals-for (3.13). They have the lowest shooting percentage (6.8%) and save percentage (.858), and when every game is considered divisional, there is little opportunity for a club lacking talent to catch a break.
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NHL Betting Trends
Look-ahead games are a real thing against mismatched, non-divisional or non-conference opponents. But in the new NHL, those games donâ€™t exist.
Consider these statistics:
- NHL teams on a two-plus win streak have a win percentage of just .474 when hosting a non-conference foe in a slump (2-3 losses).
- In conference matchups that otherwise have the exact same circumstances, the home win percentage jumps to .616.
Home teams have had a win-rate of .600 or better every season since 2012. The average rate in the past nine seasons is .657, including a 3-1 record so far in 2021.
The Sens are in Edmonton for two starting Sunday. Top scorers Connor McDavid (5 G, 9 A) and Leon Draisaitl (6 G, 7 A) are licking their chops but they better not get too cocky.
- Ottawa is 10-1 its past 11 in Edmonton, including a current streak of six-straight wins since 2014.
They get a familiar face for a home-and-home against Montreal next.
- The Sens are 1-6 their past seven against the Habs, scoring two goals or fewer in all seven games.
I correctly predicted the Senators and Canucks to play UNDER on Thursday, and with the way things are going for this squad, betting totals may end up being the most valuable play on the board.
OVER is the Order
The NHLâ€™s North division leads the league in scoring with 6.7 total goals per game â€” more than a goal above what the East, West and Central are averaging. There is a Florida Panthers team flying under the radar, however, and donâ€™t look know but they are currently tied for 4th in scoring with Washington Capitals (3.75 GPG).
Florida missed a couple dates against Dallas due to Covid regulations. Thus, the Panthers have played only four games, but they won three. On Thursday, the Jackets took down the Panthers in a shootout, qualifying the Cats for this Over/Under system.
- NHL Betting Trends = 66% â€” Play the OVER when a high win-percentage team is coming off a divisional road loss in the first half of the season.
The OVER is 54-28 in this system and Florida at Detroit is “live” on Saturday. The Panthers are -175 favorites with a posted total of 6 OVER -110.
Read my latest Super Bowl LV betting preview for key trends on the side and total!
In my latest NHL article I talked about the high volume of back-to-backs this year. The Top 3 teams were Montreal, Nashville and Boston, and so far this season those three are 6-1 (86%) in this situation.
The Maple Leafs didnâ€™t qualify as a top team in that profile, but they have won five-straight times when following a win against the same opponent. Toronto scored four-plus goals in four of five, and they are “live” on Saturday in a rematch against the Edmonton Oilers.
Toronto currently ranks third in the NHL with a 39.3% power play. The Oilers penalty kills is 21st at 75.9%.
- The Leafs are 21-11 OVER the past two seasons against below average penalty kills.
- Edmonton is 15-6 OVER the past two years vs. strong power play teams.
The Oilers have given up 17 markers in their past four games. Current NHL odds on this game read 6.5 OV -113.