Football picksApril 24, 2021

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds

NFL Season Win Total odds ahead of next week’s draft, plus Draft Capital rankings and handicapping tips for each team.


The NFL Draft is just around the corner. Once complete, the chess match between bookmakers and handicappers begins, as bettors scour for value while the juice slowly rises. Matchups for all 32 teams are determined and the 2021 schedule will go public on Wednesday, May 12. There is no way to determine exactly how training camps will roll out this year but with vaccinations climbing, it’ll surely be an improvement over last season.

This is a first look for you at NFL season win total odds, recent form and free agency. I also included each team’s win percentage during the 16-game era as well as their draft capital ranking. I’ll revisit these topics throughout the summer, tracking line movement. When it comes to season win total odds, patience can be a virtue but when the window for certain bets does open, it usually doesn’t stay for long. One way or the other, tracking odds provides a big advantage.

AFC Teams

Baltimore Ravens

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 11 OV -125
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 11.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .564 (5th highest overall)
Draft Capital Rank: 24th

The Ravens have reached double-digit wins seven times in the past 11 years but they fell from 14 in 2019, to 11 in 2020. Baltimore added WR Sammy Watkins in free agency, but the oft-injured Watkins can’t be relied on for a grueling 17-game schedule. HC John Harbaugh alluded to the fact that he has his sights set on another target, and the Ravens will pick 27th in the first round, but they also added another first round pick (31st) on Friday, trading OT Orlando Brown Jr. to Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 10.5 OV -120
2020 Record: 13-3
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .491
Draft Capital Rank: 30th

Buffalo will wear the bullseye this year as the defending AFC East champs. All three division rivals have made improvements but the Bills are poised to maintain their swagger. Current odds favor Josh Allen’s squad to win the East at -150, with Miami (+325) and New England (+350) in a battle for second.

Cincinnati Bengals

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 6.5 OV -110
2020 Record: 4-11-1
Average Wins 2018-20: 4
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .429
Draft Capital Rank: 7th

Joe Burrow had a good first season and all reports indicate he’ll be back on the field for Week 1. The problem for Cinci is that the competition in the North is as fierce as ever, with Cleveland entering the ring. Six games vs. the division, not to mention matchups against Green Bay and Kansas City, make this look like another small step in the rebuild process for HC Zac Taylor.

Cleveland Browns

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9.5 OV -150
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 8
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .399 (2nd lowest)
Draft Capital Rank: 16th

Cleveland had an epic off-season and comes into this year as the No. 2 team in the North, according to oddsmakers. They’ve listed the Browns at +175 to win the division, sandwiched between the Ravens (+110) and Steelers (+350). With an O-Line and front seven that can compete against anyone, double-digit wins is a high probability.

Denver Broncos

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7.5 UN -120
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 6
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .580 (3rd highest)
Draft Capital Rank: 9th

Denver started and finished last season with three-game losing streaks. A soft schedule could see them eliminate those slumps and the defense will be a strength. Once again, the offense is a question mark, especially at quarterback.

Houston Texans

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 4.5 OV -110
2020 Record: 4-12
Average Wins 2018-20: 8.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .444
Draft Capital Rank: 30th

The Texans off-season has been marred by controversy and with so much uncertainty still surrounding this team, they earned the distinction of having the lowest win total in the conference. The rebuild has begun, and it’s going to be a long road.

Indianapolis Colts

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 10 UN -135
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .498
Draft Capital Rank: 29th

The Colts are currently favored to win the South at even money. Tennessee (+125) is not far behind. Carson Wentz is reunited with Frank Reich and the two combined to go 18-11 in Philadelphia, but Wentz was 3-8 SU last year and he’s 13-26-1 ATS the past three seasons. The possibility of 8-9 wins is here but 10 is optimistic and 11 is high.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 6.5 UN -120
2020 Record: 1-15
Average Wins 2018-20: 4
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .425 (5th lowest)
Draft Capital Rank: 1st


It’s all about looking forward in Jacksonville, and Trevor Lawrence is the future. The consensus No. 1 pick won 34 of 36 starts with Clemson, rushing and passing for 108 touchdowns while throwing just 17 picks. It won’t end with Lawrence as the Jags also landed picks No. 25, 33, 45 and 65 overall. Doubters are calling seven wins a stretch right now but by the time August hits, it won’t surprise me one bit to see this SWT posted at 7 OV -120.

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Kansas City Chiefs

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 12 OV -115
2020 Record: 14-2
Average Wins 2018-20: 12.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .529
Draft Capital Rank: 22nd

To no surprise, the Chiefs opened with the highest win total in the AFC. Kansas City has a difficult schedule but we’ve seen what Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can do. The Chiefs have won double-digit games six-straight seasons, hitting 12 or more four times in that span. The OVER might not scream value here but remember, there are 17 games this year.

Las Vegas Raiders

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7.5 OV -110
2020 Record: 8-8
Average Wins 2018-20: 6.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .474
Draft Capital Rank: 20th

The Raiders need help in a lot of places and if they can shore up the front seven, the offense could match last year’s output. With Jon Gruden, you have to pick your spots. His all-time record as a divisional road dog is 26-18 ATS (59%) and the past three years, he’s 8-5 ATS in that role.

Los Angeles Chargers

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9 UN -115
2020 Record: 7-9
Average Wins 2018-20: 8
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .494
Draft Capital Rank: 12th

Justin Herbert is poised for another strong season when it comes to fantasy football but with this defense, a lot of weeks will come down to ‘last team with the ball wins’. Former Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is a notable improvement over Anthony Lynn, but that could take at least a year of trial and error.

Miami Dolphins

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9 OV -120
2020 Record: 10-6
Average Wins 2018-20: 7.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .543
Draft Capital Rank: 3rd

To no surprise, the Dolphins are the highest ranked win-percentage during the 16-game era amongst teams without a Super Bowl. Miami’s last Super Bowl win was in 1973 (14-game regular season).

New England Patriots

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9 OV -145
2020 Record: 7-9
Average Wins 2018-20: 10
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .603 (2nd highest)
Draft Capital Rank: 14th

The 7-9 still doesn’t look right with the Patriots after what we saw them do during the previous 17 seasons. The O-Line looks good for 2021 but a lack of offensive playmakers is a concern. Bill Belichick has done wonders with worse, but he always had a GOAT to rely on. Heading into the draft, 8-8 seems like a best case scenario for New England.

New York Jets

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 6.5 UN -150
2020 Record: 2-14
Average Wins 2018-20: 4.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .449
Draft Capital Rank: 2nd

First-year HC Robert Saleh takes over and is highly expected to draft QB Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick. The Jets are rolling in capital, with three picks inside the first 36. New York also ranks third in most overall picks (10). Circle the home date against Jacksonville for a potential battle between the first and second overall draft picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 8.5 OV -120
2020 Record: 12-4
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .609 (1st overall)
Draft Capital Rank: 21st

The Steelers won 11-straight games to start last season before a wave of Covid and wacky scheduling led to three consecutive losses. Pittsburgh lost back-to-back games against Cleveland in Week 17 and the Wild Card round, adding spice to those two divisional meetings in 2021. This is the lowest win total for Pittsburgh since 2015. The past three times HC Mike Tomlin was faced with a sub-9 win total, he answered with 10, 11 and 12 straight up wins.

Tennessee Titans

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9.5 UN -150
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .503
Draft Capital Rank: 17th

At some point it would seem that Derrick Henry has to slow down but after beating 2019’s impressive numbers (303 carries, 1,540 yards) last year (378 carries, 2,027) yards, there’s no telling when. Tennessee was 10-3-3 OVER last year, winning double-digits for the first time since 2007. They were 5-4 SU vs. winning teams and 7-2 SU in one-score games. In this day of parity, that’s a caution flag for anyone considering the win total OVER.

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NFC Teams

Arizona Cardinals

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 8 OV -110
2020 Record: 8-8
Average Wins 2018-20: 5.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .409 (4th lowest)
Draft Capital Rank: 25th

This was a difficult team to bet on last year. After going 10-6 ATS in 2019, the Cards fell to 7-9 ATS, including a 2-7 ATS record in the back-half. It’s to be expected while HC Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray find their groove, but after going 5-10-1 SU and 8-8 SU, getting to nine wins this year is optimistic. Softer matchups against Detroit and Houston are offset by a fierce divisional slate, not to mention games against the Packers, Colts and Titans. JJ Watt brings a needed boost to the defense.

Atlanta Falcons

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7 OV -145
2020 Record: 4-12
Average Wins 2018-20: 6
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .460
Draft Capital Rank: 5th

The new ways Atlanta found to lose games in 2020 was comical for outsiders, and just as equally painful for Arthur Blank and HC Dan Quinn. On the heels of three-straight losing seasons, Quinn was shown the door and a new era in Atlanta began with former Titans O-Co Arthur Smith.

Carolina Panthers

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7.5 UN -115
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 5.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .482
Draft Capital Rank: 10th

Jets QB Sam Darnold was traded to the Panthers, leaving them with two underachievers at the most important position in football. Carolina is expected to bolster its O-Line in the draft and they do not have the look of a contender.

Chicago Bears

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7 OV -110
2020 Record: 8-8
Average Wins 2018-20: 9.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .510
Draft Capital Rank: 23rd

Andy Dalton was a bailout plan for Chicago and if he can get the team to buy in, seven wins is a possibility. The majority will have to come at home, as the Bears’ non-divisional road schedule is exhausting. They’ll travel to face the Bucs, Rams, Hawks, Browns, Steelers and Raiders this year.

Dallas Cowboys

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9.5 UN -135
2020 Record: 6-10
Average Wins 2018-20: 8
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .554
Draft Capital Rank: 6th

Dallas had so much potential last year and ended up with their lowest straight up win total since 2015, when they were 4-12. The Cowboys (+110) are heavy favorites to win the NFC East this season and with Dak Prescott under center, their offense can hum but they’ll need to bolster that offensive line. Prescott signed a $240 million deal with a no-trade clause, so both he and Jerry are all in. The Boys have a decent looking home schedule but road games in Kansas City and Tampa Bay will be tough. They’ll also travel to Minnesota, HC Mike McCarthy’s experience with the North could come in handy.

Detroit Lions

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 5 UN -120
2020 Record: 5-11
Average Wins 2018-20: 4.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .396 (lowest overall)
Draft Capital Rank: 8th

Life after Matthew Stafford immediately plops Detroit with the shortest win total in the conference. With Stafford around, .500 seemed like a realistic opportunity. Detroit even posted 10 wins in 2011, 11 in `14 and back-to-back 9-win seasons in 2016-17. They’ll face a difficult schedule this year and with a rookie head coach (Dan Campbell), it’s looking like a long year for Lions fans.

Green Bay Packers

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 10.5 OV -145
2020 Record: 13-3
Average Wins 2018-20: 10.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .565 (4th highest)
Draft Capital Rank: 19th

NFL season win totals aaron rodgers

The Packers (-250) opened as favorites to continue their reign atop the North and will remain there all summer. They have one of the most elite rosters in the NFL and during the draft, will look to add a top wide receiver and a defensive back.

The Packers are accustomed to high win totals and they’ve hit double-digit straight up wins eight of 11 times since 2010. After a couple down years in 2017-18, Green Bay has reached 13 wins in back-to-back years under HC Matt LaFleur.

Los Angeles Rams

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 10.5 UN -150
2020 Record: 10-6
Average Wins 2018-20: 10.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .470
Draft Capital Rank: 31st

The Rams had played UNDER their win total four straight years before 2017, and they are 3-1 OVER since then. QB Stafford is going to get his shot with a contender and recent charges against Aaron Donald have been dropped. Look for a strategic draft out of HC Sean McVey, especially on Day 2, when the Rams have three picks lined up.

Minnesota Vikings

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 8.5 OV -145
2020 Record: 7-9
Average Wins 2018-20: 8.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .530
Draft Capital Rank: 11th

Minnesota has flip-flopped between eight-or-less win seasons and double-digit wins since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014. The Vikings were 7-9 SU last year and 6-10 ATS, their worst betting record of Zimmer’s tenure. Minny faces a difficult schedule this year, drawing the NFC West and AFC North in the rotation, but nine wins is manageable.

New Orleans Saints

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9 OV -110
2020 Record: 12-4
Average Wins 2018-20: 12.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .512
Draft Capital Rank: 26th

No other team in the NFC averaged more wins than the Saints the past three seasons and realistically, their dominance stretches back much further. Drew Brees hung up his cleats this off-season, though, and the Saints must move onto life without one of the NFL’s all-time greatest QBs. Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill take over and eight to nine wins is a realistic range. Note that the OVER was also 10-6 (63%) last year, and Sean Payton has hit double-digit wins ATS in four of the past five.

New York Giants

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 7 OV -110
2020 Record: 6-10
Average Wins 2018-20: 5
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .501
Draft Capital Rank: 18th

New York had a good off-season on paper, and general manager Dave Gettleman’s press conferences make it sound as if he knows how to assemble an offense. New York has a reasonable slate of home games but things get tougher on the road with stops in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Hitting .500 this year is optimistic and it for it, the entire first team offense would need to stay healthy and take a step forward. Long shots to say the least.

Philadelphia Eagles

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 6.5 OV -135
2020 Record: 4-11-1
Average Wins 2018-20: 7.3
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .548
Draft Capital Rank: 4th

Nick Sirianni knows offense but he needs to learn a thing or two about holding press conferences. Earlier this week, he told reporters he had played rock paper scissors with potential draft picks, to evaluate competitiveness. Even in Philly, you might get away with this but things will get real the first time Sirianni pulls a bonehead move in September. The bar is set low for the Eagles and with home games against the Chiefs, Bucs, Niners and Saints on tap, 6.5 seems fitting.

San Francisco 49ers

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 10.5 UN -150
2020 Record: 6-10
Average Wins 2018-20: 7.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .553
Draft Capital Rank: 13th

Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo has missed 23 games over the past three years and that prompted a serious move this off-season. San Francisco secured the No. 3 spot in the draft, but had to give up three first rounders to get it. John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan understand the kind of potential they have with this defense. All in.

Seattle Seahawks

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 9.5 OV -135
2020 Record: 12-4
Average Wins 2018-20: 11
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .530
Draft Capital Rank: 32nd

Google ‘lowest draft capital’ and the Seahawks will break the internet. Seattle’s only pick in the first three rounds is 56th overall, and they have just three draft picks in total. They do have a new offensive coordinator, though, so we’ll see if Shane Waldron has any new recipes to help Russell Wilson cook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 11.5 OV -125
2020 Record: 11-5
Average Wins 2018-20: 7.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .407 (3rd lowest)
Draft Capital Rank: 27th

All-time rankings don’t mean anything to this team right now. They got their Lombardi Trophy and every starter on offense and defense is returning. Things are good in Tampa these days.

Washington Football Team

2021 NFL Season Win Total Odds: 8 OV -135
2020 Record: 7-9
Average Wins 2018-20: 5.7
Win Percentage (1978-2020): .491
Draft Capital Rank: 15th

Alex Smith was the feel good story of last season and although he has retired, Ryan Fitzpatrick will surely give the Team something to cheer about. Washington also added WR Curtis Samuel and CB William Jackson. HC Ron Rivera has finished with seven straight up wins or fewer in four of the past five years, and he’ll settle for nothing less than .500 this season. This team will go as far as their defense will carry them, and the win total of 8 OV -135 is worth circling.

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