December 2020


Football picksDecember 31, 2020

Today in my Week 17 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at a couple of late-season systems that are live on several teams. Plus, I breakdown the Dolphins at Bills matchup, as Miami looks to punch its ticket to the postseason.

Week 17 of the NFL season signals the end for some teams and a new beginning for those that are playoff bound. The great mystery that faces bettors as we prepare for a huge, 16-game lineup, is figuring out which players and coaches will be the most motivated for a win.

  • The Saints, Bills, Packers, Bucs, Seahawks, Chiefs and Steelers have locked up a playoff spot.

Washington controls its own destiny, and they’ll face Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. The fan base of either the New York football Giants or Dallas Cowboys will become Eagles for three hours that night, praying for an upset. And with Jalen Hurts under center for the home side, we can all certainly expect a 100% effort from Philly.

  • The record for sub-500 divisional home teams in Week 17, when the line is within +/- 3 points of Pick em, is 46-30 ATS (61%).

Based on current lines, the above profile applies to the Eagles, Broncos, Giants and Patriots this weekend.

Road Dog Rules

Countering that angle, here is one that applies to two teams this weekend with a 65% win rate against the number.

  • Play ON divisional road dogs with three covers in the past four weeks.

This late-season system is 32-17 ATS in recent years and both the Jets and Dolphins qualify. New York has covers against the Raiders, Rams and Browns since Week 13. Meanwhile, Miami has raked in the cash against Cincinnati, Kansas City and New England.

Read on for more of my Week 17 NFL betting trends, including a closer look at the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup!


Week 17 NFL Betting Trends

Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin racked up 169 all-purpose yards in a dramatic Week 16 win over the Raiders


Week 17 NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1 PM Eastern
Odds: Bills -3 and O/U 47.5

The Dolphins are a poster team for platooning this season. Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick split the quarterbacking duties. Myles Gaskin has taken over the lead running back role for now, but Salvon Ahmed filled the role in four starts. With both backs finally healthy, the Dolphins quietly have a nice one-two punch at their disposal. DeVante Parker (hamstring) and TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder) lead the team in receiving. Each is dealing with current injuries, but if there was ever a time to play through the pain, this is it.

  • Miami has a 15-29 ATS (34%) road record from Week 15 out, since 1989.

Included in that trend is a 3-11 ATS record since 2012 when playing away from Miami in December-January. But as we all know, the culture in Miami changed with coach Brian Flores took over.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 17 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!

Buffalo has won five games in a row straight up and they are 7-0 ATS since Week 9. The greater motivation, however, clearly sides with the Fish.

  • The Bills record after four-plus wins since 1992 is 5-15 ATS and 14-6 OVER (70%).

Pittsburgh (12-3) and Buffalo (12-3) share identical records. The Bills will win a tiebreaker, based on their win over the Steelers in Week 14. Pittsburgh is a 10.5-point road dog in Cleveland, who are in the ‘win and your in’ spot. Given the Browns’ playoff history, or lack thereof, it only stands to reason that they’ll do everything to win that game. Given Pittsburgh’s current injury status, they’ll probably let them.

So Buffalo doesn’t really need this game, and they don’t get a bye next week, so it’s a prime chance to rest starters. But there is one more thing to consider, and that’s the fact that the Bills are currently 5-0 SU vs. the division this season.

  • Week 17 divisional home faves with double-digit wins are 15-3 SU (83%) when looking for a divisional sweep.

HC McDermott’s only SU/ATS home loss this year was the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. He was 5-2 ATS. The other non-cover was against New England, but he still beat them by three points.

I’ve had seven winning weeks in the past nine with my NFL picks (78%). My record during that span is 51-33 (61%) for a +$11,520 bankroll increase. I’m also hitting 82% with my Max Plays over the past six weeks (9-2), good for a +$12,140 return. My Week 17 picks are in the works now. Get ’em here!

 

Football picksDecember 24, 2020

The Week 16 NFL betting schedule kicks-off with a Friday contest, followed by three Saturday games. And while that is a little unusual compared to the standard Thursday-Sunday start dates, the early line movement on all four of these games is what really caught my attention.

Minnesota at New Orleans
Friday, Dec. 25, 4:30 PM Eastern
Line: Saints -7 and O/U 51

In the past five weeks, Minnesota has two straight up wins and they are 0-5 ATS. The Vikings have allowed 28.2 points per game (PPG), and their opponents include teams like the Panthers, Jaguars and Bears. This team runs out of gas in the second half, where they rank 31st with an inflated 15.5 points-allowed average. Only Detroit (15.7) is more generous after half-time.

The Saints are scoring 28.4 on the season, QB Drew Brees is back from his ribs injury, they’re home off a loss and yet, this total is shrinking.

  • The Vikings-Saints total opened at 52 and some books have reduced it to 50.5 as of Thursday.

This is a playoff revenge game for the Saints, who fell 26-20 to these Vikings in January. When home faves with playoff revenge meet in the second half of the season, the OVER is 11-4 (73%). Totals greater than 44 produced 7 OVERS and 1 UNDER. There is also this trend in effect, that is 70% in recent years.

  • New Orleans is 32-14 OVER when playing at home off a close loss by six points or less.

Weather won’t be a factor in the dome. WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is OUT but RB Alvin Kamara is good to go and Brees has made a lot of average receivers look great, when given time in the pocket. One thing to keep an eye on is the status of the Saints O-Line. Nick Easton (concussion) and Andrus Peat (ankle) are on the injury report and it’s always nice to have the big O-Line in top form when betting a home fave or an OVER.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 16 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!


Week 16 NFL betting

Saints RB Kamara had 94 all-purpose yards in Week 15 against the Chiefs, and he’s averaging 8.6 targets per game when Brees is in the lineup


Visit my Matchups section for more Week 16 NFL betting trends and tips. Click on the team names to make the jump!

Tampa Bay at Detroit
Saturday, Dec. 26, 1 PM Eastern
Line: Buccaneers -9.5 and O/U 54

The Bucs played on the road against another NFC North opponent in Week 5, and it was a sad display. Since that 20-19 loss to Chicago, Tampa Bay is 6-3 SU and the setbacks were against the Saints, Rams and Chiefs.

  • In six wins since Week 5, the Bucs are averaging 397.5 total yards of offense per game.

When Tom Brady gains more than 395 yards of offense, he has a career record of 101-35-3 ATS (74%). The OVER is 93-45-1 (67%) in this scenario, too. Detroit ranks 30th in the NFL with 401.4 total yards allowed per game. It’s no wonder this line has jumped from Bucs -7.5.

San Francisco at Arizona
Saturday, Dec. 26, 4:30 PM Eastern
Line: Cardinals -4.5 and O/U 49

The total is down a full point since Monday, and the money on Arizona has moved the betting line from -3.5. San Francisco (5-9) has been reduced to the role of spoiler, but think of Kyle Shanahan. Then think of Robert Saleh, the Niners’ defensive coordinator. Don’t they seem like the kind of guys that would absolutely cherish the opportunity to ruin Arizona’s playoff bid?

  • Road dogs with a losing record are 25-5 (83%) when facing a team that won straight up last week, but failed to cover the spread.

Arizona covered for a lot of bettors last week, pushed for others and lost ATS on gameday bets at -7.5. Either way, there is another angle “live” on the Cardinals to counter the above trend. It’s for home teams off a home win. When favored against a foe that was lit up for 40-plus the previous week, the home team is 30-15 ATS (67%).

Miami at Las Vegas
Saturday, Dec. 26, 8:15 PM Eastern
Line: Dolphins -3 and O/U 47.5

First of all, it looks like QB Derek Carr (groin) will be back under center for the Raiders on Saturday. He was a full participant at practice on Wednesday, meaning Marcus Mariota will return to the backup role. Regardless of who starts, taking care of the football will be of utmost importance. Miami ranks third overall in turnover margin at +0.7 per game. The Raiders are T-23rd at -0.7 per game.

  • Road teams with a strong turnover margin are 72-37 ATS (66%) after back-to-back games with one or less giveaways.

The Dolphins are being pounded here, with 73% action according to one source. It’s moved the line from -2 up to -3, and it’s worth noting that HC Jon Gruden’s record as a mid-sized dog between +3 and +7 points is 25-17 ATS (60%). That includes a 7-3 ATS record his past 10 times with the Raiders. This is one game where checking injury reports and shopping for the best line are crucial.

My NFL record since Nov. 1 is 47-29 (62%), with higher-rated plays going 28-14 (67%) for a net gain of +$11,720. Now is the perfect time to get on board for a winning package. Sign up for my NFL picks here!

 

Football picksDecember 19, 2020

My Week 15 NFL Picks from the Pound looks at two teams whose Season Win Total hopes are sunk. I also have a free pick this week from the Texans at Colts. Get a preview and find out how you can get free picks for every sport that I cover, weekly.

Season (Win Total’s) Greetings

One of the great things about betting NFL futures is that you have a little stake on every game that team plays throughout the season. It can mess with your head, like when you want a team to win for your OVER but you like the other side against the spread, but hey that’s a bridge every futures bettor has to cross once in a while.

At this stage of the season, some teams are starting to cash OVER tickets while others are securing their spot in UNDER-ville. Saturday’s favorites are two of nine NFL teams that have already hit the jackpot for Season Win Total (SWT) bettors that invested on the OVER.

  • The nine SWT OVER winners through Week 14 are the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Dolphins, Packers, Rams, Steelers, Titans and Washington.

One of the many things I spent my time on during the sports-free lockdown of 2020, was trying to see if there was an edge to be found once teams had either hit their SWT, or guaranteed a failure based on win percentage. The data sampling was small, but it pertains to two matchups on the Week 15 NFL card.

Read on for my Week 15 NFL betting trends, plus a free pick from the Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts!


Week 15 NFL picks

The Vikings and Bears are on the outside of the NFC Playoff picture looking in, Minnesota holding a slight edge thanks to Week 10 win at Soldier Field


Based on NFL Season Win Total data from the past 10 years, the Cowboys and Vikings are live in one profile that suggests fading these teams on Sunday. Home teams at this stage of the season with no chance to clear their SWT are 10-23 ATS (30%).

Note: Click on the team names for a link to my Week 15 NFL Matchups page.

San Francisco at Dallas
Sunday, Dec. 20 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: 49ers -3 and O/U 45

The Cowboys (4-9) scored a moral victory in QB Andy Dalton’s old stomping grounds, but they are still two games off the pace in the NFC East. Washington, New York and Philadelphia each face a difficult matchup this week, so it’s now or never time for Dallas, but ‘must win’ doesn’t always translate into ‘will win’. I will say this for the Cowboys. They are starting to finally show some cohesiveness on offense.

  • Seven straight games with two or less turnovers.
  • Five of six games with 100-plus rushing yards.

Coach Mike McCarthy also had a 24-9 ATS record in home games off a road win with Green Bay, but he had a much stronger supporting cast at the time. Join the conversation on this game @wunderdogsports.

Chicago at Minnesota
Sunday, Dec. 20 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: Vikings -3 and O/U 46.5

The Bears (6-7) finally snapped their six-game losing streak with a 36-7 win over Houston. One of the losses during that skid was a 19-13 setback to these Vikings at Soldier Field. It was the kind of Monday nighter that makes this week’s Pittsburgh at Cincinnati game look good!

  • Chicago’s road record when seeking revenge for a same-season divisional loss is 5-15 ATS.

Minnesota is one of four teams concluding the home portion of its schedule this weekend. The others are Miami, Atlanta and Tennessee.

  • Since 2015, teams playing their final home game in Week 15 are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS (85%).

The Vikings are 0-4 ATS since beating the Bears in Week 10. Small divisional home faves on an ATS losing streak are 2-11 SU/ATS when faced with revenge. The question for any dog bettor in this game is whether you can trust Mitchell Trubisky.

Free Week 15 NFL Picks

I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. As we countdown towards Sunday, my free Week 15 NFL pick is from the AFC South battle between the Texans at Colts.

Houston at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, Dec. 20 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: Colts -7.5 and O/U 51

Indianapolis won the first meeting, 26-20, two weeks ago in a game that was close throughout. Only two points were scored in the second half. Deshaun Watson arguably outplayed Philip Rivers as he finished 26 of 38 for 341 yards and ran for 38 yards on seven carries. The Colts cruised through a weak Las Vegas defense on Sunday in a 44-27 win, but the Colts have allowed an average of 30.7 points their last four games.

Romeo Crennel says his team is playing to win. It also looks as if David Johnson and Duke Johnson could both be in the lineup. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off the biggest game of his young career. In last week’s win, Taylor rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

Sign up for my free Week 15 NFL picks, get this play along with free picks for every sport that I cover. My free NFL picks are 9-4 (69%) this season and 183-120 (6%) all-time for a bankroll gain of +$72,950.

 

Football picksDecember 17, 2020

Today in my Week 15 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at late-season road favorites, the Chiefs vs. Saints, and two home faves fresh off a divisional sweep.

Week 15 NFL Betting Trends

Nine NFL road faves managed a winning record in Week 14 (5-4 ATS), thanks to Baltimore’s incredible 47-42 victory at Cleveland on Monday night. The Browns went from ATS winners, to pushers, to losers — all in the span of a minute and four seconds — after a miserable attempt at the hook and lateral wound up in their own end zone. Guess that’s something for Kevin Stefanski to work on in the off-season.

The straight up record for road faves in the past three weeks is 18-4 (82%), but with an average line of -5 points, you would have to maintain a win-rate of 70% just to break even. As the line maker sharpens his or her pencil, finding value on the road chalk may well indeed require bettors to lay the points.

  • The record for Week 15 road favorites since league realignment in 2002, is 56-43 (57%), tied for the second-best in that span (Week 11).

As of Wednesday, seven teams are listed as the road favorite in Week 15. That list includes the Bills, Bucs, Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers, Browns and Steelers. Since 2012, Week 15 road favorites have posted a winning record in seven of eight seasons.

  • Week 15 road favorites are 30-15 ATS (67%) since 2012, the winningest week of the season to lay points on the road.

For more on this week’s premiere matchups, scroll down. I’ve had an incredible second half to the season and my Week 15 NFL picks will be ready to roll on Friday.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 15 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!


Week 15 NFL Betting Trends

Saints QB Taysom Hill has a 7-1 SU/ATS record in games where Drew Brees doesn’t start


Kansas City at New Orleans
Sunday 12/20 4:25 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3 and O/U 51.5

What is the rationale behind road chalk doing so well at this stage in the campaign? In the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, it could be the fact that it’s their final away game of the season.

  • Week 15 road faves with back-to-back home games on-deck are 16-9 ATS (64%) the past 10 seasons.

Good teams win at home, but every Super Bowl winning team knows how important it is to play well amidst the distractions of a rowdy road crowd. Well, not this year, but historically speaking. Coach Andy Reid’s all-time road record is 112-69-3 ATS (62%), by far the best of anyone in his field with more than five year’s experience. He clearly sees the importance of playing well away from the confines.

One caution flag for anyone that considers laying points with the Chiefs is their high number of turnovers in Miami. Patrick Mahomes threw three picks last week and KC also lost a fumble.

  • Single-digit road faves off a road win where they turned the ball over three or more times are 10-19 ATS (35%).

One thing to keep an eye on in this matchup is the status of Drew Brees. The Saints have designated Brees (ribs) to return from injured reserve, opening a 21-day window. Taysom Hill has done an excellent job as the starter, but there are few QBs that give their team as good a chance to win as Brees. For more on this game, visit my NFL Matchups section.

Trendworthy Tips: Divisional Sweeps

The Packers and Ravens each completed a season sweep over one of their divisional rivals last weekend. While it might seem like a letdown spot, the truth is that home faves in this situation have a 46-7 straight up record immediately following the sweep. The UNDER is also 65% effective in this situation, going 34-18-1. Here are some additional Week 15 NFL betting trends for those two matchups.

Carolina at Green Bay
Line: Packers -9 and O/U 51.5

The Packers (10-3) are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season, favored by more than a field goal in every matchup. They lead the league in scoring with 31.5 points per game and rank top 2 in yards (397.6), red zone (77%) and third down conversions (49.7%).

  • The UNDER is 27-8 (77%) when any road team off a loss (Panthers) is facing an opponent that was won three-plus consecutive games.

Jacksonville at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -13 and O/U 47.5

John Harbaugh has a winning record against every division in pro football. The thing that stands out in his ledger, however, are the totals vs. the AFC South. Harbaugh is 24-7 UNDER (77%) vs. the South since taking over in 2008. There is another UNDER trend to consider, as well. This angle is 64% with more than 100 plays.

  • Take the UNDER with any team that allowed 30-plus points last week (Ravens), vs an opponent that was blown away by 14 or more points.

This system has a record of 41 OVERS and 72 UNDERS over the past five seasons.

NBA season is less than a week away and I have full season packages available now. My NBA record last year finished at +44 games over .500 for a +$8,630 bankroll increase. It was my third straight winning season, during which time bettors have added +$37,010. Don’t miss out, get my NBA season package here!

 

Football picksDecember 11, 2020

My Week 14 NFL Picks from the Pound looks at the unique scheduling setup from the Minnesota – Tampa Bay game. I also have a free pick this week from the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers contest. Find out how you can get free picks from every sport that I cover.

Home Field Advantages

Every NFL season has its fair share of scheduling quirks and this year is no different. In a truly unique set of circumstances, the Minnesota Vikings are traveling this week off a three-game home stand. The wild part is that their host has been camped out at home for almost a month, and are coming off a bye week!

Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Line: Buccaneers -6.5 and O/U 53

After starting 1-5, Minnesota has flipped the script, going 5-1 in their past six. The Vikings (6-6) went 2-1 in a recent three-game set at U.S. Bank Stadium, although at times it looked like they were trying to lose against the Jaguars. There is no question, some of the wins have come against poor opponents — Detroit, Chicago, Carolina, Jacksonville — teams with a combined win percentage of .313 (15-33 SU), but at the end of the day, the Vikings are only one-game back from Tampa (7-5). And this week, Kirk Cousins and his crew are getting points!

  • Road dogs of +3 points or more off a home stand where they went 0-3 ATS, have a 9-1 ATS record (90%).

Tom Brady and the Bucs are grateful for their extended home stand, which included a bye in Week 13. All this team needs now is a bit of a softer schedule. Tampa Bay has lost three of four, all three losses coming against division leaders.

  • Brady is 8-1 SU/ATS his past nine games that followed a rest week, playoffs included.

On-deck for the Bucs are a pair of games against the Falcons, sandwiching Week 16 a pit stop in Detroit. The real question when handicapping this matchup, is whether or not the Vikings fit into the 500-plus club, or if they’re ready to fade away into their first losing season since 2014?

Follow @Wunderdog for more NFL trends and winning football picks throughout the week!


Week 14 NFL Picks

Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones ranks is 4th in the league with 820 rushing yards, yet the Bucs are 29th overall with just 277 team carries


Over/Under Trends

The bye week is a huge advantage for the Bucs and both Brady (31-9 SU), and coach Bruce Arians (5-2 SU) have an affinity for winning with extra prep time. Games like this are the reason that each of these vets were brought into Tampa.

  • NFC Conference non-division home teams after their Bye Week (Bucs) have gone a perfect 11-0 OVER in the last five years.
  • Non-divisional home faves of -3 points or more are 28-9 OVER (76%) when the total is greater than 49, from Week 13 out.

The Buccaneers were “live” in the above angle last season, in Week 14 against the Colts. There were 24 points scored in the first quarter and the score at half-time was 27-21 Colts. Tampa Bay came back to win 38-35, crushing the number (49.5).

Free Week 14 NFL Picks

I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. My free Week 14 NFL pick is from the Falcons and Chargers, as each team tries to shake off a loss.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday Dec. 13, 4:25 PM Eastern
Line: Falcons -1.5 and O/U 48.5

After losing two of their past three games, Atlanta has spiraled out of any postseason hope. Last week, it was the Saints dishing out the pain, 21-16.

  • Non-conference teams like Atlanta are 58-23 OVER following a divisional loss by seven points or less.

After playing two straight, and three of the last four at home, the Falcons take a long road trip out West. After getting shut down by the Patriots 45-0, the hometown Chargers sure won’t be in a friendly mood. Despite the shutout, this is still one of the most potent offenses in the league. The Chargers are currently ranked seventh in total yards (386 per game) and fourth in passing (272 yards) behind QB Justin Herbert (22 TDs, 9 INTS).

Sign up for my free Week 14 NFL picks here, and get this play along with free picks for every sport that I cover. My free NFL picks are 8-4 ATS this season and 182-120 (61%) all-time for a bankroll gain of +$71,520.

 

Sports picksDecember 10, 2020

Today in my Week 14 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at the league leaders in Quarterback rushing yards, and teams that struggle to defend against it.

Defending Mobility

Watching Lamar Jackson weave his way back and forth through the pitiful Cowboys run defense on Tuesday, I’m torn between two schools of thought. First of all, Jackson took over the league’s top spot for rushing yards by a QB in that 34-17 win, so you can’t help but be impressed. My second thought, however, was the utter amazement at how weak the effort was by the Dallas defenders.

The Cowboys have played five games this season against teams whose QB ranks amongst the Top 10 in ‘QB rushing yards’. The result from each game was the same: 0-5 SU/ATS.

Guys like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are going to make a lot of teams look bad, but the Cowboys have also been beaten by guys like Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz. And yes, I double checked it, Wentz really does rank 9th in QB rushing yards (QBRY)!

Bengals QB Brandon Allen had two carries for three yards against the Dolphins last week, so Dallas should be fine this Sunday in Andy Dalton’s homecoming game. Keep this angle in mind, though, for Week 16-17 when the Cowboys wrap things up against the Eagles and Giants.

  • In five games against mobile QBs this season, the Cowboys have allowed 33.4 points per game.

I’ve circled a couple more matchups from the Week 14 NFL card where teams may struggle to defend against a mobile quarterback. Along with each game are key betting trends you can add to your handicapping portfolio.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 14 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!


Week 14 NFL Betting Trends

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has rushed for 669 yards in 11 starts this season, an average of 60.8 per game


Week 14 NFL Betting Trends

The New York Giants have shaken off a 1-7 start, winning four straight to pull within two games of .500 on the season. They are coming off a huge upset road win, and face a Cardinals team that finds itself in a rut. Arizona has faced tough competition over the past month, but there is no time left for excuses as the divisions start to tighten up.

Arizona at New York Giants
Line: Cardinals -2.5 and O/U 45

In his first year as a pro, Cardinals QB Murray carried 93 times for 544 yards and four touchdowns. His per game average was 34 rush yards, which would still rank Top 10 by today’s standards, but he was just getting started.

This season Murray is second only to Jackson in QBRY with 665, or 55.4 per game. He has 10 TDs, too, but the Giants have quietly become one of the top run-stuff units in the NFL. New York allows just 96.7 RYPG which is 4th, behind the Bucs, Saints and Rams. What’s more is that when facing a top ranked QBRY foe, New York is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 UNDER. They’ve allowed 22-17-12 points in those games.

  • The Giants are 36-20 ATS (64%) immediately following a game where they rushed for more than 175 yards.

Led by RB Wayne Gallman (135 RY), the G-Men racked up 190 yards on the ground against Seattle last weekend.

Kansas City at Miami
Line: Chiefs -7 and O/U 49

Sticking with the home dog theme, the Dolphins are hosting Patrick Mahomes Sunday. And while it may seem as if the mobile Mahomes has toned it down from last season, that’s only because so many other QBs are running wild.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 14 NFL betting trends and tips!

Mahomes has rushed for 241 yards in 12 starts this season, already more than his 218 yards during 14 starts in 2019. He’s just 31 yards shy of his personal best, 272 (2018), and Miami might be just the spot for it. The Dolphins have played UNDER three games in a row but they were facing the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. That’s three teams with a combined record of 6-29-1 SU.

  • Since league realignment, dogs off back-to-back unders (Miami) are 17-6 OVER (74%) when the total is between 42-50, and both teams have a scoring margin of +7 or greater.

Miami has faced a classic assortment of mobile QBs this year. Cam Newton, Wilson, Murray, Josh Allen. The Dolphins have notched just one win against those four, allowing 28.5 points per game.

  • HC Andy Reid is 14-4 ATS away from home after beating a division rival by seven points or less.

There is a slight chance of a shower on Sunday (40%). Other than that the weather in Miami sets up nicely for a shootout.

I’ve won five of the past six weeks with my premium NFL picks, hitting 60% for a profit of +$5,890. Included in that run is a 7-4 (64%) record with Max Plays! Don’t wait another day, sign up for my Week 14 NFL picks now.

 

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