October 2016

Football picksOctober 26, 2016

NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Preview -  Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee TitansNFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Preview & Free Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Thursday, Oct 27, 8:25 p.m. (ET) CBS

NFL Pointspread: Tennessee -3.5

Total Line: 43          

Jacksonville at Tennessee Game Matchup Overview

Jacksonville may be off to a disappointing 2-4 straight-up start to its fans, but bettors have remained ahead of the game with its 4-2 record against the spread. This past Sunday, the Jaguars lost both ways in a 33-16 setback to Oakland as two-point favorites at home. It was the first time Jacksonville closed as a favorite this year and the fourth time in six games where the total went OVER closing line.

The Jaguars come into this division clash with an offense that is ranked 27th in the NFL in yards per game and 24th in points with an average of 19.5 a game. Blake Bortles has thrown just as many interceptions as touchdowns (9) and Jacksonville’s running game is grinding out just 76.7 yards a game. Defensively, this unit is a respectable ninth in the league in yards allowed (325.2), but it falls all the way to 26th in points allowed (26.7).

The Titans are slightly better in the AFC South standings at 3-4 SU, but they are just 2-5 ATS. This past Sunday they lost to Indianapolis 34-26 as 3.5-point home favorites. The total went OVER the 48-point closing line and it has gone OVER in their last four games. Tennessee is now just 2-15 SU in its last 17 home games and it has failed to cover in its last five games at home.

Second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrown for 1,604 yards and 12 touchdowns on an offense that is ranked 27th in the NFL in passing yards per game, but the Titans have proven to be one of the better rushing teams in the league behind running back DeMarco Murray. He has carried the ball 139 times for 633 yards and five scores in his first seven games. Tennessee’s defense has done a good job at stopping the run and this unit is 10th overall in total yards allowed.

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Football picksOctober 19, 2016

NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football PreviewNFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Preview & Free Pick

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers 

Thursday, Oct 20, 8:25 p.m. (ET) CBS

NFL Pointspread: Green Bay -7.5

Total Line: 46          

Chicago at Green Bay Game Matchup Overview

Chicago at Green Bay Betting Consensus

The Bears slid to 1-5 on the year both straight-up and against the spread with last Sunday’s 17-16 loss to Jacksonville after closing as 2.5-point favorites at home. The total in that game stayed well UNDER 46 points and it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their six games behind an offense that is now ranked 31st in scoring with an average of just 16.8 points a game.

Chicago head coach John Fox appears to be set on Brian Hoyer as his starting quarterback for Thursday night as opposed to Jay Cutler. Neither player has been all that effective at getting their team some much needed wins, but Hoyer has the better numbers with 1,396 yards passing and six touchdown throws. Two of the main problems with this team has been a running game that is ranked 23rd in the league and a defense that is 19th in points allowed (23.8).

Green Bay is also coming off a bad loss after falling to Dallas 30-16 last week as a 5.5-point favorite at home. The Packers are now 3-2 on the year SU with a 1-3-1 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER closing 47.5-point line against the Cowboys and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games. Green Bay does have a SU 10-2 record in its last 12 games against Chicago including a 6-2 run in the last eight meetings at Lambeau Field.

Aaron Rodgers is the clear choice at quarterback in Green Bay, but he has not been at his best more than once this season. Last week, he completed 31-of-42 attempts for 294 yards, but he was also picked off once to go along with a fumble in a first-and-goal situation. The Packers’ running game took a hit with the loss of Eddie Lacy due to an ankle injury and their depleted defensive secondary lost Sam Shields for the season when he was officially placed on IR this week. 

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Football picksOctober 14, 2016

Sunday Night Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Game PreviewThe battle of the AFC South takes center stage on Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts roll into NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. While the season is still early this is a key contest for each of these teams and could play a key role in the outcome of their season.

Entering their showdown on Sunday Night Football the Texans currently hold the top spot in the AFC South while the Colts sit just a game back tied with the Tennessee Titans. Now while the records look very close don’t let that fool you for one minute.

For the Texans their season started with an opening 23-14 win at home over the Chicago Bears before picking up wins in week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs and week 4 against the Tennessee Titans. Their two losses were handed to the New England Patriots in week 3 and the Minnesota Vikings in week 5. Those two teams have combined to go 9-1 to open the 2016 NFL Season.

Meanwhile the Colts haven’t had the same type of success this year beating teams that have struggled. After losing late to the Detroit Lions to open the season the team also dropped a close on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 4 with their third loss coming against a pretty good Denver Broncos team.

Here are the Keys and Trends for the AFC South Showdown on Sunday Night Football that might help you with your NFL football pick.

Indianapolis Colts Keys & Trends For Week 4

Step Up Time For Andrew Luck: This is one of those games the Colts need Luck to put the team on his back while playing a perfect game. While Luck has been good at points this season the teams defense has struggled making it even more important for Luck to play at the elite level that he has shown in the past.

Betting Trends: Their struggles to knock off teams with a losing record has rolled over to their success against the spread as they have gone just 2-3 to start the season. The team has also struggled on the road of late going just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road contests.

Houston Texans Keys & Trends For Week 4

Run Lamar Run: While the Texans handed out a big pay day to Brock Osweiler this offeseason this week should be all about their other key offseason pick up Lamar Miller. The Colts have struggled on defense to slow down nearly any team they have faced including opposing running backs who have gashed them allowing over 109 yards per game on the ground.

Betting Trends: The one key trend to monitor in this contest has been the success of the Texans at home this season as they have posted a 3-0 record against the spread while going 0-2 on the road. The team has also dominated the AFC South going 6-0 against the spread in their last six contests.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Matchup (-3.5)

(Over/Under – (48.5)

Head To Head Betting Trends 

The Colts have controlled this series over the past few years going 3-0-1 in their last four meetings while going 5-1-1 over their last seven meetings against the spread.

These two teams have combined to score some points at NRG Stadium over the past six seasons as they have combined to go 9-2 at covering the over in those contests


Football picksOctober 14, 2016

New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals Monday Night PreviewThe sixth week of the 2016 NFL Season wraps up with another Monday Night Football Clash. This week the contest isn’t as strong as we have seen over the past few weeks as struggling 1-4 New York Jets roll in to University of Phoenix Stadium to face off against an Arizona Cardinals team that has gone just 2-3.

For me these records are stunning as we expected the Jets to be a much better football team. On the other side the Cardinals were not my Super Bowl pick entering the season but they were a team I expected to sit atop the NFC West. Along with my opinions the national sports media also rode the Cardinals as early Super Bowl favorites.

Entering this week the struggles continue to ride with the quarterback situation as Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled early to protect the ball while Carson Palmer has dealt with a concussion that forced him out of weeks 4 contest and to miss the teams week 5 game.

Here are the Keys and Trends for Monday Night Football between the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.

New York Jets Keys & Trends For Week 4

Play Mistake Free Football: This starts with the quarterback position as Fitzpatrick has had his difficulties throwing the football. Entering Sunday the veteran quarterback had thrown just five touchdowns over the first five weeks against some solid defensive teams but the staggering ten interceptions has made it very difficult for the team to win.

Betting Trends: The win/loss struggles have also shown up in the teams 1-4 record against the spread this season as well as the team was favorites in a few of those contests. Now that being said the Jets have posted a 4-1 team over their last five games against teams that have posted a losing record at their time of meeting.

Arizona Cardinals Keys & Trends For Week 4

None Stop Pressure: All you have to do is to look at the 10 interceptions that Fitzpatrick has thrown this season and you could figure out the defense to win this game. For the Cardinals setting the tone of the game with a ton of early pressure could lead to some early points while turning the momentum to them on Monday Night Football.

Betting Trends: With the early hype around the Cardinals led to them being favorites early and helped their 2-3 record against the spread as they have struggled. That being said this team has shown they have been able to cover the spread against teams that have struggled going 20-7 against teams with a losing record going back to the 2012 NFL season.

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup (-7.5)

(Over/Under – (46)

Head To Head Betting Trends 

With these two teams playing in opposite conferences the two don’t face off as much to post a ton of trends. One trend that does stand out is the fact the road team has controlled the success going 4-1 against the spread despite having to travel from one side of the country to the other.

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Football picksOctober 12, 2016

NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Preview - Denver Broncos at San Diego ChargersNFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Preview

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Thursday, Oct 13, 8:25 p.m. (ET) CBS

NFL Pointspread: Denver -3.5

Total Line: 45.5       

Denver at San Diego Game Matchup Overview

The Broncos fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with last Sunday’s 23-16 loss to Atlanta as 3.5-point home favorites. They are now 4-1 on the year both straight-up and against the spread. The total stayed UNDER  44.5-point line in that loss after it had gone OVER in three of their first four games. Denver now heads into San Diego with a SU 4-1 record in its last five road games.

The good news for the Broncos is that quarterback Trevor Siemian is expected to get the start on Thursday night after missing last week’s game with a shoulder injury. The second-year signal-caller out of Northwestern has completed 67.3 percent of his 101 passing attempts for 824 yards and six touchdowns this season. The main reason why Denver is off to such a strong start has been a defense that is ranked sixth in the NFL in both average yards allowed (301.0) and points allowed (17.4).

San Diego has been snake bit the past two weeks with close losses to New Orleans at home and Oakland on the road in which it blew a late-game lead. The result is a 1-4 record SU while going 3-2 ATS. The total easily went OVER  closing 50.5-point line in last Sunday’s 34-31 loss to the Raiders as 3.5-point road underdogs and it has gone OVER in four of the Chargers first five games. Despite these early trends, the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six home games.

The Chargers are still one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL with an average of 30.4 points a game behind a passing offense that is racking up 282.8 yards a game. Philip Rivers has thrown for 1,469 yards and 11 touchdowns in five starts. Travis Benjamin has been his top target with 28 receptions for 394 yards and two scores. The problem has been on the other side of the ball with a defense that is allowing 28.4 points a game. This unit is ranked 23rd in the league in total yards allowed. 

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Football picksOctober 6, 2016

Sunday Night New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers PreviewNew York Giants at Green Bay Packers  

Sunday, Oct. 9, 8:30 p.m. (ET) NBC

Pointspread: Green Bay -7.5

Total Line: 48

New York at Green Bay Game Matchup Overview

The Giants’ fast start out of the gate has faded into a 2-2 straight-up record while going a costly 0-3-1 against the spread. After blowing a late-game lead in a 29-27 loss to Washington in Week 3 as a 3.5-point home favorite, New York got pushed around by Minnesota in a 24-10 loss as a 3.5-point road underdog this past Monday night. The total has stayed UNDER BetAnySports’ closing line in three of the four games.

As goes Eli Manning so goes his team. After completing close to 74 percent of his passes in New York’s’ early wins against Dallas and New Orleans, he has now tossed three interceptions while barely completing 60 percent of his throws in the last two games. The Giants’ defense has also taken a step backwards as well following two strong starts. This unit is now ranked 18th in the league against the pass and 15th in points allowed (21.2).

Green Bay is coming off the first bye week of the season with a 2-1 mark SU, but it falls to 1-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER BetAnySports’ closing line in two of those first three games. Heading into the break, the Packers turned in their best performance of the year in a 34-27 victory against Detroit as 6.5-point home favorites. This followed a narrow four-point win against Jacksonville as 4.5-point home favorites and a three-point loss to Minnesota as one-point favorites on the road.

Just like Manning, the play of Aaron Rodgers has a big impact on Green Bay’s success or failure. He was definitely not at his best in his first two games, but the perennial All-Pro returned to form against the Lions with four touchdown throws against no interceptions. This offense is still ranked 29th in the league in passing yards while improving to 16th when it comes to running the ball behind Eddie Lacy. The return of Jordy Nelson has given the Packers a huge boost with 17 receptions for 206 yards and four scores.