As an MLB bettor, you can largely do what you want to do, and there are lots of fun ways to make cash betting baseball. But when you make those MLB baseball picks, you might want to stay away from run lines in some scenarios. These lines look good, mostly because they have big juice attached to them. You can win with a favorite and get paid in the process. There are some reasons why it is hard to win on the run line, though.
Know that in close games, the game will end in the ninth inning when that winning run crosses the plate. This means that even if your home favorite loads the bases in the ninth and hits what would be a double, only the single run will count. Close games will make it very hard for you to cash a run line because of the way the game is constructed. In essence, you will be limited by the rules to a single run in this instance.
On top of that, teams often allow the losing team to score a meaningless run late in the game. Say a winning team is up by two runs in the ninth. A man gets on first. His run does not really matter…except to people like you. All of a sudden, he takes off for second, and the winning team does not even make a throw. He takes off for third, and the catcher again sits on the ball. Now he is at third with no outs, and the pitcher is focused on getting the batter. The infield plays back, and the run scores on a routine ground ball. These scenarios play out all the time, and they cost money for people betting run lines. If you plan on making these MLB picks, be very careful or you might find trouble.
If you bet football, then you know that once a line gets above two touchdowns, you are dealing with a pretty big favorite. This is especially true in the NFL, where almost every game will feature a line of less than a touchdown during the week. In basketball, you know that double-digit favorites are big favorites. Baseball makes life a bit harder, though. What do you do with those pesky moneylines? If you are making MLB bets, then this can be your guide to let you know just what those moneylines mean.
A big favorite in MLB will usually be over -200. If you see a favorite creep into the -300 level, then you will know that you have a really good pitcher on the mound for a good team against a bad pitcher for a bad team. Baseball has a lot of variance, so any team could beat any other team on any given night. This is why, even when the Yankees of the 1990s play a bad team, they are only favored in the -200s most of the time.
Some might look at lines like -150 and think that it is basically a coin flip. This is really not true, though. On any given night, most of the games in MLB will feature a favorite that is -150 or less. You have to understand when betting moneylines that the little differences in the line matter. If you want to make good long-term money betting moneylines, then your job must be getting the best possible line. Your goal, if you have one, should be to get the line before it moves, because every small movement on a moneyline will cost you money over the course of a year.
Major League Baseball is a unique sport for bettors. One of the reasons it is so unique is that the lineups are almost always subject to change. If you are a football bettor, then you know that most of the information needed for making NFL picks will come to you early in the week. Peyton Manning is going to start if healthy, so you never have to worry about a late scratch. In baseball, though, the best players in the game will even sit out every now and then, so you have to be on top of things if you want to be a long-term winner.
As a baseball handicapper, you have to know that lineups matter. Checking lineups will give you an idea of who is playing for your team, and it will let you know whether a betting line has been set too high or too low. This is the unique thing about baseball betting lines. They are set with the assumption that starters will play. When guys are out of the lineup, this changes the prospectus, but it does not necessarily change the way the line operates. Once you recognize this, you can have much more success on end.
There are plenty of sites that give lineup information. Even Major League Baseball’s official site will keep you updated. Be sure to check these sites a couple of hours before game time to make sure of who is playing. This will ensure that you are betting on a team that has its best guys in the lineup. No one wants their money going to war with a bunch of bench players out on the diamond.
If you are making MLB betting picks, then you know good and well that pitching is the most important thing going. If you know how to analyze and assess pitching, then you will be well ahead of the game, giving you a great opportunity to win good money with your bets. How do you analyze pitching matchups? There is no easy way to do this, but these tricks will provide you with an excellent opportunity.
Strikeouts, walks, and homeruns
Remember these three things. These are known as the “true” outcomes because they require only the pitcher and the batter, and not any other player on the field, for a result. A guy who can strike people out, control his walks, and keep the ball in the park will be a good bet for you. These three elements are what goes into good pitching.
Considering lefty/righty splits
Some guys are very good at getting same-handed hitters out. This can make a lot of sense when they go against clubs with a lot of hitters from that side. Think about a good lefty against Baltimore, for instance, as he will be able to neutralize their big power bats. These things will make a major difference in your ability to come up with a big win. Want to win big? check out our MLB consensus.
How deep will he go?
You need to know not only how well a pitcher is going to pitch, but how long he is going to go. If a guy is great for five innings and hands the ball off to a bad bullpen, you will feel very uneasy. Look for guys who go deep into games, as this provides you much more certainty when making your MLB predictions. It is hard to handicap the unknown, and relievers are the great unknown.
Baseball is all about the numbers. Pretty much everyone who follows the game will admit and concede this fact. If you are going to be a successful baseball bettor, then you need to be all about the numbers, too. But baseball is ever-changing. The numbers that matter one year might not matter the next. Which stats really matter in 2014? Here are some to think about.
Weighted On-Base Average
wOBA, as it is called in stat circles, is a statistic that shows just how likely it is that a team is going to score runs. It is a statistic that combines all of the contributions of players on offense. Rather than looking at stats like batting average – which will not tell you much – you might consider taking a look at the wOBA of a team before making a bet on them.
Pitcher Swinging Strike Percentage
When you are assessing starting pitchers, you will want to make sure that you know which one is likely to blow away the other team. Guys who strike people out are preferred to guys who do not. How do you know which pitcher is better? While this stat won’t tell everything, swinging strike percentage is a good place to start. A pitcher who can get swinging strikes on nine-percent of his pitches or more is a good bet to be a strong arm. Things like control matter, too, but this stat is a good predictor of future success.
No, it’s not a stat in the traditional sense, but it’s something you better know if you are going to have success with your baseball picks. When guys have pitched for a few days in a row, they will likely be shut down and unavailable. If your team has a one-run lead in the ninth, will you feel comfortable with your bet if the third best reliever on the team gets the ball? Know this before you toss your money away.
When you make MLB picks this season, you will want to know all about emerging trends. Being on the cutting edge is important for bettors, so you should think about these three things before you put your money in play.
The Phillies are Old
Don’t let their names fool you. The Philadelphia Phillies are old, and their offense is not what it used to be. There is a sense among MLB bettors that some teams are good on offense and others are not. Often, these senses stem from the reputation of a team rather than the team’s actual expected performance. The Phillies are old, so be careful depending on them to score runs for you.
The Brewers Crush Lefties
The Milwaukee Brewers have some tremendously good right-handed bats. Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and even Jonathan Lucroy all hit from the right side, and they can hit lefties hard. As a bettor, you are going to want to watch out when a mediocre lefty takes the hill against the Brew Crew.
The Wind in Chicago Matters
When you see a crazy total on a Major League Baseball game, know that the weather is playing tricks with the game. In Chicago, for instance, you might see some over/unders at around 13 this season. This means that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, and you will want to adjust accordingly. The wind in Chicago is a big deal, and those bettors who fail to take it into account will often fail with their MLB picks this season.