April 2013

Baseball picksApril 28, 2013

MLB Betting Tips: The Importance of Being PatientIf you are going to win at MLB betting, you have to be willing to take some winning days and some losing days. Many people take the football betting mindset into MLB betting as they go along. They look at every single MLB betting day as the biggest day of the year, and if they lose, they lose their minds. You have to prepare yourself for the grind of the MLB season. It is very long, and just as good teams lose, good bettors are going to lose on some days, too.

As you make your MLB bets, you should look at the season in terms of weeks. Do not try to be a winner every single day, because this is not going to happen, even for the person who is at the top of his game. You should aim for winning weeks, and if you can pile up enough of those, then you can have a very profitable season. Taking this approach will help to keep you sane, and it will ultimately save your bankroll from the destruction that comes with impatience.

After a few years of betting on baseball, I can tell you that it is not simple finding those good betting spots. The people who win big are the people who are able to spot opportunities, keep their heads, and slowly plug away. At the end of a long year, these people tend to have cash in hand. They do not make their money through large, wild plays, and they do not try to get rich with parlays. They make small, smart plays and keep exploiting whatever edge they might have.


Baseball picksApril 28, 2013

Baseball Betting Tips: Do Bullpens MatterAs you become a more skilled and experienced baseball bettor, you will come to see that there are certain things that you must focus on and certain things that you have to let go. There is no way to take into account every single factor, and it would be a mistake for you to try to do so if you are a bettor. Instead, you have to take a kind of minimalist approach to the entire thing. Find what matters most, learn how to see the various factors, and become a skilled bettor. Maybe that means becoming an expert on starting pitching. Maybe it means knowing hitters.

But what about bullpens? Should you worry about them and learning all of the new names that populate different pens during different years? The truth of the matter is that bullpens do matter, but it is difficult to predict how a player is going to perform on a daily basis. One of the challenging things about baseball handicapping is that relief pitchers tend to see extreme variance in their stats. This is true from year to year and it is true from day to day. This is mostly because these pitchers do not pitch that many innings. Because they don’t, their numbers can fool you.

If you are going to make MLB betting picks, then maybe you can learn a thing or two about closers. In an age when teams take closing very seriously, these pitchers tend to be more consistent than middle relievers. The ultimate truth, though, is that you cannot waste too much of your time focusing on who has the best bullpen. Hitters and starting pitchers will decide the game, and that will usually come well before a relief pitcher enters from the bullpen. In some cases, a good or bad reliever will end up costing a team a game or helping a team win a game, but this will not be the usual circumstance.


Basketball picksApril 27, 2013

NBA Betting Tips: Three Notes on Pace of PlayAs you make your NBA picks or NBA playoff picks, you may want to think long and hard about how you analyze pace of play. Some people think it is only important to consider pace of play if they are betting on the total. This is not really the case, though. Pace of play can be exceptionally important when betting on lines. This is true for a number of reasons. First, pace can impact how a team is able to cover a big spread or stay within a big spread. In addition, some teams just play better when there is a fast pace. Here are three notes on pace of play.

Officials dictate pace

It does not matter how fast a team wants to play if that team can’t stop fouling people. This is one of the fundamental rules that you have to understand. If you are going to do your NBA betting, then you have to understand whether a team’s style is going to be affected by refs who are whistle happy. This is especially important in the playoffs.

The playoffs bring a lower pace

As you make your NBA playoffs picks, you will see that the pace of the game is routinely slower when the playoffs roll around. Teams focus more on defense, and there are more fouls called. The half court game becomes more important, and when that happens, the pace of the game is going to suffer to some extent.

Pace is function of defense and offense

Too often, people bet on overs or unders on the basis of how well teams defend. This ignores the fact that offenses have a lot to say about the pace of the game. Even good offenses can be low scoring if they are playing a slow pace. You should recognize this before committing yourself to a particular pick.


Basketball picksApril 27, 2013

NBA Playoffs Betting: What to Do When a Man Goes Down?Occasionally during the playoffs, a team will have tremendous bad fortune. One of their best players will go down with an unexpected injury, and they will have to adjust on the fly. As NBA bettors, we have to try to look at this from every angle possible. If we fail to do that, then we will fail to win when it comes to betting. You might think that it is best to go against the team with the injured stud. This might be true, but it is not necessarily true. In some cases, the market will adjust and it might be better to take the team with the injured player.

What are some of the challenges associated with losing a player? If you are making NBA predictions, then you will know that losing a player can cause a team to have to completely change its mindset and mentality. Where a team might have had a certain identity, like shooting the three or playing lock down defense, it might have to look for new ways to use its talent. When this happens, the team might lose out on more than just the contribution of the player who was injured. They might also see a lack of contribution from all of the other spots on the floor.

There is a flip side to this and it is important. The market could possibly overreact to a player going out. Bettors tend to overestimate how important one player is to a team. This is especially true when that player is a starter, but not the team’s best player. You have to watch to see how the lines adjust. If the market is overvaluing the injury, then they might be undervaluing the team with the injured player. If this is the case, then the savvy individual will make great money by going against those big trends.


Baseball picksApril 26, 2013

MLB Betting: A National League Offensive Explosion?For the past few years, there have been some things in the MLB betting handicapping  world that you could just take for granted. One of those things was the previously unquestioned fact that the AL would be the offensive league, while the NL would be the one with the good defense. The lower run scoring in the NL has always been a function of the pitcher batting, which gives pitchers on the mound a big time break when they are in a jam. In the AL, the pitcher has to go up against one more hitter. Is something changing?

This is ultimately the big time inquiry. In the early season, it looks like something might be shifting. Perhaps the NL teams have focused more on acquiring offensive talent, because in the early part of the year, the NL has had some major scoring out breaks. Many NL teams are ahead of most AL teams in scoring. This has come as a major surprise for most people around baseball, and it is something that you will want to track as you make your MLB baseball picks.

One thing to know about baseball is that you cannot overreact to small sample sizes. There might be times when you think something is changing, but in reality, it is just variance. Whether or not this is a true change in talent level depends upon the theory that you take. You will want to keep an eye on things for a bit longer. The longer this trend continues, the more likely it becomes that it is a real change rather than some random fluctuation. If it turns out to be a real change, then this can be a powerful MLB betting nugget for you to use.


Baseball picksApril 26, 2013

MLB Betting Tips: Valuing Minor League PitchersThroughout the year, many pitchers will come up in Major League Baseball. Teams will need a spot starter, or perhaps they will be looking to break in one of their big young arms. When that happens, you will have to assess the value of that player so that you can make a decision on whether to bet on him or against him. There are some tools that you need if you are going to make your MLB predictions in these situations. It is easy to lose if you fail to take into account these very important factors.

You need to find a good minor league statistics website. Finding minor league pitching stats has become much easier over the past few years. This is mostly because more people are scouting these games. So what should you look for. You should be looking for players who have tremendous strikeout and walk numbers. If a player can strike people out while also limiting his walks and home runs, then he is probably a winner. If a guy has rather pedestrian numbers in the minors, then it is very unlikely that he will be a big-time Major League player.

You also need to know that in many cases, the lack of familiarity with a pitcher will work in his favor. When teams are not used to seeing a pitcher, they will often look lost for a little while. This can allow an otherwise average pitcher to get off to a very good start. This is something that you will certainly want to consider as you try to figure out how to handle these important situations. At the end of the day, a guy who can assess minor league pitching will have a chance to pick up more cheap betting wins than a guy who just avoids these games altogether.


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