February 2013

Basketball picksFebruary 17, 2013

When you hang around sports betting for long enough, you will start to think and talk about matchups. How does one team match up with another? Can one team keep up with the strength or speed of another team? These are the critical questions that must be answered. The truth is that college basketball is less about matchups than most sports. Teams will find ways to use their strengths even against those teams with differences.

For instance, what happens to the team with many good guards when they play the team with many good inside players? On one end of the court, the guard-laden team will stretch the court and make the big guys defend in space. On the other end, the big team will hit the boards and overpower the smaller team. What results, in essence, is a wash if you are just talking about the outcome of the game itself. From a college basketball picks perspective, there is not a tremendous amount to be gained.

Where you might see some difference is in how matchups effect the total of the game. When teams have these sorts of differences in strength, you might see more scoring, as teams can dictate play on the offensive end. On the defensive end, they must react to what the other teams are doing. This means that teams will have some success scoring the rock and less success defending when they are matched up differently from another club. Take this into consideration as you make your NCAA college basketball picks.


Basketball picksFebruary 17, 2013

As you go to make your college basketball betting picks this year, you are going to have to think about more than just whether one team is going to win the game. You have to really know whether they are going to cover the spread in an acceptable fashion. In order for a team to cover the number, they have to do more than just squeak out a win. With that in mind, you might be thinking about the fouls at the end of the game. Can’t you just count on these fouls to bail you out when your team has the lead? To some extent, this is probably true. But what is the true value of end-game fouling?

As you make college basketball picks and watch the game, you should see a trend start to emerge. That trend is easy to see – teams will score free throws, but they will stop playing good defense, too. This means that the other side will score some easy baskets during this time. The other team will also shoot three pointers and try to press. Even if your team is scoring points from the line, they might be giving up points on the other end of the floor when they stop playing good defense.

The end conclusion is that you can count on anywhere from a one to two point boost from end-game fouling. This means that if you are looking to cover a five-point spread, you should only bet on a team if expect them to be up by four points or more at the end of the game. You cannot count on getting a handful of points out of fouls. Though this happens in some cases, most games will see the last few seconds play out evenly. This is a very common mistake that is made by too many players.


Basketball picksFebruary 15, 2013

So you are making those college basketball spread picks and one team looks unbeatable. Maybe they have taken the top spot in the polls for a week. Is it a mirage? Or are these teams any good? Those are the questions that you have to answer. So far this season, it appears that being ranked at the top of the polls does not guarantee any sort of actual success. Instead, being at the top of the polls appears to leave teams more vulnerable if anything else. With that in mind, the question has to be asked – is there any sort of value associated with betting against teams when those teams are ranked at the head of the class?

There must be some advantage to making college basketball predictions against top-ranked teams. Why is this the case? First, it is because teams who are ranked this high end up being overvalued by the betting public. There is, in essence, an additional tax that must be paid by any person who is going to bet on the top-ranked team. If you are looking for a way to spot some value in your college basketball picks, then you might think long and hard about going against the top-rated schools. When they are at the top of the polls, it might be high time to jump off of the train and start betting the other way

In addition, there is some psychological element that comes into play here. A top-ranked team will almost always get the other team’s best shot. In addition, the teams at the top of polls might feel additional pressure by sitting there. This could make them more likely to play poorly and not cover spreads. Likewise, you will see bigger crowds turn out when these teams go on the road. This should give the home teams an advantage that they would not have in their other games. This might influence the value of the top teams in their road games, and it might provide you with a chance to make good money by betting against them.


Football picksFebruary 15, 2013

So you want to make NFL picks, but you aren’t sure about how to play the trends. That is perfectly alright, and it is something that you should investigate. There are many big and small trends that people will talk about when they talk about betting on the NFL. For instance, people may talk a bit about playing home underdogs. It is true that home dogs continue to win at a nice clip in the NFL. But this trend is not so strong that you just need to play all home dogs. It is what we should call a selective trend.

In addition, you might wonder about travel trends. Many people will tell you to make NFL football picks against a west coast team traveling east to play an early game. This trend has been strong in the past, but it has been less effectively lately. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, teams have adjusted to the challenges, and they have gotten smarter in how they prepare their players for those sorts of challenges. In addition to that, the market has adjusted in many respects.  Now, the market knows about this trend, so there is a chance that bettors are overcompensating.

If you are going to make good NFL betting picks this year, you need to understand trends, but not rely on them too much. Trends can ultimately be very helpful when you are looking for angles to shoot. You should not use them in place of other good methods, though. Handicapping is still about knowing your matchups and knowing how to analyze the different teams. Remember this if you want to have long-term success with NFL picks.


Basketball picksFebruary 9, 2013

You have probably heard of some of the very good freshmen in the country. You probably know about Shabazz Muhammad of UCLA. You might know a lot about Anthony Bennett of UNLV. These are good players who have gotten a lot of attention. But maybe you don’t know about some of the other studs out there who deserve more attention. These guys are important to any person who is looking to make NCAA college basketball picks. As you look to make your picks, you will want to know about emerging threats. Those emerging players have a chance to change games in some cases. If you ignore them, you will do so at your own peril.

How about Jahii Carson? He has turned into one of the biggest studs in the entire country. The thing to know about Carson is that he always gets to the hole. He does not shoot the ball all that well from the outside, but he can get into the lane any time he wants. He is strong and he plays with some swagger. He has turned Arizona State into a team that can knock off people on the road and at home. As you bet on ASU games, you are going to want to know about Carson and how he matches up with the other team. If the opponents does not have a player who can check Carson, then he might just take over the game entirely.

You might also want to know about Willy Cauley-Stein of Kentucky before you make your college basketball bets on them. Cauley-Stein is a 7-footer who has tremendous game. He can take it outside and he can handle it on the inside. He has been injured a bit this season, and he is somewhat overshadowed by UK’s Nerlens Noel. Still, he must be on your radar as you make your bets. He is an absolute game-changer for the Wildcats. And when he is on the court, they are much better.


Basketball picksFebruary 8, 2013

When you make those NBA spread picks, you will want to predict nights like the one Houston had recently against Golden State. The Rockets put up 140 points. They did so by coming very close to the all-time record for 3-point baskets in a game. So how do you know when this type of thing is coming? That is the big question that you have to ask yourself when you make your NBA picks. You are never going to be able to predict those kinds of nights with 100% accuracy. You can, however, notice some little things that might lead you to believe that a team is going to lay down the way Golden State did.

The Warriors have a relatively short bench. They also play some difficult games on the road. The road trips from California can be very long, and this can have an impact on the way teams play. If you can catch a team with a short bench playing on a tough trip on the road, you might be able to get on the right side. You must also keep up with the news about various teams. If you had followed Golden State closely, then you might have known that the team was struggling a little bit to keep up with things. They had been worn down a bit by the season itself. This is important information to get if you can do so.

Ultimately a shooting night like the one Houston had is going to be very difficult to predict. Teams shoot very well and very poorly for no reason at all. The real answer is to make sure that you are on the lookout for those opportunities where a team is going to face a poor defense. Good shooting is more affected by bad defense than anything else. If you can keep that in mind, then you can find success. You might not be able to make NBA picks by figuring out when Houston is going to get hot. You might, however, be able to figure out when a tired tea mis going to stop playing defense.


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