Saturday, February 23rd, 2013

Basketball picksFebruary 23, 2013

As you go forward with your college basketball picks, you may be thinking about March. Perhaps you want to lay down some money on a futures bet that will pay off big if your team wins. Maybe you are doing something different. But you need to think long and hard about what wins in March. So what does win in March? Is there one style of play that is better for winning there? The truth is that style of play really doesn’t matter. But certain other factors do.

Kentucky won last year, and they play a very fast style. Louisville came very close to winning, and they play a methodical pace. Kansas and Ohio State are somewhere in-between, and they got to the Final Four, as well. This shows us that any style can do well in March, so long as the team plays that style well. The things that matter in March are taking good shots, getting to the free throw line, and rebounding the ball. To a lesser extent, the ability to not turn the ball over is an important factor. If a team can do these things, they will show a better ability to win in March.

You need to be targeting those teams that are able to limit good shots. You might also look to those teams that can defend the three-point line. Defending the line is about more than just holding the opponent to a low percentage from there. In addition, you need to look at those teams that do not allow their opponents to get a shot off. A big part of playing defense is being able to run people off of the line. Look to these teams if you want to have March Madness betting success in March.


Basketball picksFebruary 23, 2013

As you make  NCAA basketball picks, you will notice that one very important factor is motivation. If a team is not motivated, then they will struggle to play well in March. If a team has the ultimate motivation – a win or go home mentality – then they will play well in March. This is not always true though it plays out more often than you might think. So that brings us to conference tournaments? What can we expect to see from teams in those tournaments? Can we expect teams to care about these tournaments when the big one is around the corner?

There is something to be said for a sure-fire top seed in a conference tournament. Think about a team like Kentucky of 2012. They were certain to be the top overall seed no matter what happened in the SEC tournament. In situations like that, you have to look at the conference. Does that conference have a lot of fierce rivalries? Is winning the league a big deal? In the SEC, this might not be the case. In the Big Ten, it might matter a little bit more. It really depends upon the league.

The teams with greater motivation are those teams that need to win a few games in order to make the dance. When you make NCAA basketball picks
you might want to look at those teams a little bit closer. They have an incentive to play their best basketball. They might be matched up against a team that doesn’t care. You might find good luck when betting on these teams in those conference tourneys. They may present an opportunity for good value against teams that do not care.


Basketball picksFebruary 23, 2013

When you make your college basketball predictions, you will need to consider late game situations. You have to consider how late game spots play out in regard to the point spread. If the game is under 10 points in margin, then the late game situation is going to play out in either one way or another. In one case, the team with the lead might start adding to its lead with free throws. In another case, the team that’s up will miss its free throws and allow some buckets on the other end. It could go either way, and you owe it to yourself to think about this before investing your money.

With that in mind, what things should you consider before making those college basketball picks. First, you might want to think about a team’s free throw shooting prowess. Does a team have a lot of good shooters to fill out the end of the game? You need to think about more than just the best shooter. In many cases, the opposing team will force the ball out of the best shooter’s hands. This will lead to poorer free throw shooters taking those shots. You should look at the team and determine whether there are two or three people who you would trust to take free throws.

In addition, you need to study how a team plays the final minutes. Many teams will play defense in the end-game to disallow three point baskets. They will run people off of the three point line, forcing those teams to take layups. Though this might help a team win, it can hurt you with your college basketball picks. It can mean that the trailing team gets a lot of easy points late in the game. This will make it much more difficult for your side to cover the spread, especially when that spread if higher than four or five.