Friday, February 15th, 2013

Basketball picksFebruary 15, 2013

So you are making those college basketball spread picks and one team looks unbeatable. Maybe they have taken the top spot in the polls for a week. Is it a mirage? Or are these teams any good? Those are the questions that you have to answer. So far this season, it appears that being ranked at the top of the polls does not guarantee any sort of actual success. Instead, being at the top of the polls appears to leave teams more vulnerable if anything else. With that in mind, the question has to be asked – is there any sort of value associated with betting against teams when those teams are ranked at the head of the class?

There must be some advantage to making college basketball predictions against top-ranked teams. Why is this the case? First, it is because teams who are ranked this high end up being overvalued by the betting public. There is, in essence, an additional tax that must be paid by any person who is going to bet on the top-ranked team. If you are looking for a way to spot some value in your college basketball picks, then you might think long and hard about going against the top-rated schools. When they are at the top of the polls, it might be high time to jump off of the train and start betting the other way

In addition, there is some psychological element that comes into play here. A top-ranked team will almost always get the other team’s best shot. In addition, the teams at the top of polls might feel additional pressure by sitting there. This could make them more likely to play poorly and not cover spreads. Likewise, you will see bigger crowds turn out when these teams go on the road. This should give the home teams an advantage that they would not have in their other games. This might influence the value of the top teams in their road games, and it might provide you with a chance to make good money by betting against them.


Football picksFebruary 15, 2013

So you want to make NFL picks, but you aren’t sure about how to play the trends. That is perfectly alright, and it is something that you should investigate. There are many big and small trends that people will talk about when they talk about betting on the NFL. For instance, people may talk a bit about playing home underdogs. It is true that home dogs continue to win at a nice clip in the NFL. But this trend is not so strong that you just need to play all home dogs. It is what we should call a selective trend.

In addition, you might wonder about travel trends. Many people will tell you to make NFL football picks against a west coast team traveling east to play an early game. This trend has been strong in the past, but it has been less effectively lately. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, teams have adjusted to the challenges, and they have gotten smarter in how they prepare their players for those sorts of challenges. In addition to that, the market has adjusted in many respects.  Now, the market knows about this trend, so there is a chance that bettors are overcompensating.

If you are going to make good NFL betting picks this year, you need to understand trends, but not rely on them too much. Trends can ultimately be very helpful when you are looking for angles to shoot. You should not use them in place of other good methods, though. Handicapping is still about knowing your matchups and knowing how to analyze the different teams. Remember this if you want to have long-term success with NFL picks.