December 2012

Basketball picksDecember 31, 2012

Poor Defensive Teams Buckling Down After A Big Loss 

The NBA has a lot of teams with labels, in terms of offensive or defensive. When someone thinks of the Grizzlies or the Bulls, for example, defense would come to mind. When someone thinks of Houston or Oklahoma City, offense would be the choice.

So what happens when you have a team that is horrible on the defensive end coming off a blowout loss?

For the sake of having something to measure against, let’s establish a poor defensive team as one that allows 103 or more points per game.  We will then take a look at how these teams fare against the total:

2355-2218-76 to the UNDER or a cover rate of 51.5% so nothing has been established

We then look and see how these teams do if they are at home:

1199-1128-33 to the UNDER  51.55 we see no change

Then we add in the magical piece of the equation: a team that was blown out in their last game. They are going to want to get the bad taste out of their mouth and play defense.

So we add to the equation that they lost their last game by 20 points or more:

142-93-5  to the UNDER or a very profitable cover tare of 60.4%!

Tonight the Houston Rockets will put this system to the test.


St. Bonaventure is 20-6-1 ATS after a loss.

A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I dont necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped



Basketball picksDecember 21, 2012

Out West, two teams are playing very good basketball. The market just hasn’t yet caught up with these teams. Memphis and Golden State look like two teams prepared to make a playoff run. Lines are still quite soft on these teams, though? Why is this the case and when will it stop? These are questions that you have to consider if you are making your NBA picks in the coming month. The answer is difficult to determine exactly. The market will eventually adjust if these teams keep winning. When that happens depends upon a number of different factors, making it almost impossible to simply pinpoint.

Why has the market lagged on these two teams? Part of the reason is that we have seen this before. We have seen it before from these two teams and we have seen it before in general. Golden State often has runs where you think they might be the real deal. They typically come crashing down after that happens. The same is true of other teams who come out of nowhere to post a hot start. Unfortunately for those teams, history shows us that the chances of sustaining such a run are low. This is one of the reasons why the market is so slow to respond. It is as if people are just waiting for the other shoe to drop.

When you make your bets, you might have an opportunity to take advantage of this market failure. The time to act is relatively quickly, though. Before too long, other bettors will recognize what is taking place. They will start to try and ride the gravy train. This will produce a scenario where lines lose their value very quickly. While you make your bets on these teams, keep in mind that there may come a moment when the bets are no longer good ones.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksDecember 21, 2012

The Steelers are in a difficult position. A team that always has playoff hopes is in a position where it might just miss the playoffs. And this week, the Pittsburgh boys are playing a Cincinnati team that is playing pretty well. The Bengals will come into the Steel City as 3.5 point underdogs. They also come in with an extra three days to prepare, having beaten Philadelphia on Thursday night of last week. The Bengals looked very good in that game, while Pittsburgh struggled in its game at Dallas. If Pittsburgh wants to have any shot at a playoff run, it better win this game.

So can Pittsburgh knock off Cincinnati? That depends upon a couple of factors. As you make your NFL picks this week, you will want to think about whether Pittsburgh can get after Andy Dalton and whether the Steelers can protect Ben Roethlisberger. The game will likely turn on how these things end up. The Steelers have been up and down with offensive line play. The Bengals have shown an ability to rush the QB in most of their games this year. If Pitt is to have a chance, they will have to keep Big Ben upright. This is especially true considering the troubles the Steelers have had running the football. They will need to throw it to win here.

Andy Dalton and AJ Green have proven to be an effective tandem. After what Dallas did to the Pittsburgh offense last week, Green and Dalton might have some ideas about their own ability to run over Pittsburgh this week. Though it is certainly a possibility, there is nothing to suggest that Cincinnati can come into Heinz Field and destroy the Steelers. The Steelers are still very tough on their home field at this time of year. They look like a good choice to win this game. Whether they can cover the 3.5 is another question entirely. This may end up being a very close game from start to finish.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksDecember 21, 2012

The Dallas Cowboys have quietly had a pretty decent season. While many people were ready to write them off a month ago, the Cowboys have responded by playing some good football. They have knocked off the Steelers and they’ve battled in some close games. They have themselves in position for a playoff berth if they can keep playing good football. This week, the Cowboys are favored by a field goal over a New Orleans team that has been playing its own brand of good football lately. The Cowboys have a chance to win this game if they can start playing well at home.

Dallas has been a team that has played to its level of competition. This sometimes means that the Cowboys will play better though it often means that they will play worse. This is especially true at home, where Dallas often struggles to put its best foot forward. What can we make of the Saints? Are they one of the good teams or one of the bad ones? Lately, it looks like New Orleans has its groove back. They are throwing the ball all over the yard and playing good defense, too. If the Cowboys are going to win and cover in this game, they will have to be much better against the pass. If you are making NFL picks, you need to know whether the Cowboys are going to let Drew Brees do what Big Ben did last week.

This game will turn on a couple of different things. If Dallas can avoid mistakes, then it should have the ability to dominate New Orleans on offense. If the Boys can play good pass defense, then they should cover the spread going away. If the Cowboys fail to do these things, this game will be a very hard one for them to win. When you are making your NFL picks this week, you will want to assess how you think these things will shake out. That will help you determine which way you want to go with this pick.

Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat ”



Football picksDecember 12, 2012

Bad Defenses – Good Results in Bowl Games

The college Bowl season arrives on Saturday. Many love the Bowl games and they are typically gamblers’ favorites with pools going around offices and friends, trying to predict who will win.

I thought I’d take a look at how teams do in Bowl games that have been horrible all season on defense, but somehow managed to win enough games to make it to a Bowl game.

We are going to look in the simplest of terms, demanding one thing and one thing only. We are looking for teams that gave up an average of more than 34 points per game.

First-glance logic would be these that teams are gonna be big losers, because they can’t stop anyone. They can’t possibly change their defense and perform better in their Bowl games, can they? There have been 12 Bowl teams allowing more than 34 points per game. Those teams went on to allow an average of 36.7 points per game in their Bowl game. So, a tiger doesn’t change its stripes.

You would think that would be enough to put them on the losing side quite frequently. Well, not exactly. Think about it. If they were giving up so many points and still made a Bowl game, they certainly must be scoring in equal or higher doses. That has held true as these teams have averaged 42.2 ppg scored. That means their Bowl games have averaged 78.9 ppg and the OVER is worth a good look in these games.

These Bowl teams that allow more than 34 points per game have gone 10-2 ATS.

That means Arizona’s poor defense could put them in a winning spot this Saturday when they open the Bowl season.


Basketball picksDecember 7, 2012

As you make your college basketball picks this year, you better remember to evaluate home court advantage. People who fail to properly value home court will be doomed to struggle each year in college hoops. It is always good to remember that there are some places where teams go to die. Even when these home teams do not play well on the road during a year, they will pull the occasional huge upset at home. So where are these real pits of college basketball? They are located all over the country. Here are four of the best home courts to remember when making your college basketball picks.

The Kohl Center – Wisconsin

The Badgers are known for beating teams up at home. When you are making your college basketball picks, be sure to understand the huge home court advantage that the Badgers hold when they are in this building. For years, top Big Ten teams have come into Kohl only to walk away with a tremendous amount of heartbreak.

Utah State

When you go into Logan, you better be prepared for a war. When you make college basketball picks on or against Utah State, you have to calculate the effect that the great crowd will have on the game. They will certainly cause problems for opposing clubs.


Lately, the home court advantage at Michigan has been substantial. This is one of the most underrated home courts in the country. People making college basketball picks this summer will come to understand the Wolverines just do not lose when they play in their own building. They hit shots and make life tough on opposing offenses, too.

Fogg Allen Fieldhouse – Kansas

If you want to talk about the iconic places in college hoops, Allen Fieldhouse is up there with the best. This is also true of college basketball picks home court effect. The fans in the Fogg are loud and rowdy. More importantly, the boys play some of their best ball when they are inside those halls. Remember this when making your college basketball picks this year.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


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