November 2012

Football picksNovember 29, 2012

As you make your NBA picks this year, you should put your focus on the proper metrics. Too many people think about winning every single game they bet. They freak out when something in their methodology goes wrong. This is the wrong way to be when you want to win with NBA picks. Instead, you have to realize some of the unique challenges associated with betting on the NBA. You have to recognize that the NBA is an ebb and flow kind of league. Some teams will be up while others are down. And there are so many games that you can never expect to win them all.

You just have to try to have winning weeks and winning months. Make sure that you have enough of a bankroll so that you can make NBA picks all year without going belly up. If you are not properly bankrolled, then you will end up taking a hard losing streak at some point during the year. With the proper bankroll flexibility, you can withstand those runs and come out better on the other end. This is what you truly have to shoot for with your NBA picks over the course of the year. Survive the low points and capitalize when you have the chance to go on a winning run.

Understand that the NBA season is grueling. You will need to keep in mind that some teams are going to go through injuries at different points of the year. Try to figure out when a team is about to go through one of their lulls. With this information in tow, you can bet against that team in order to win some good money. You have to constantly be thinking ahead and you cannot worry about what happened yesterday. The people who are ultimately successful with their NBA picks are those people who have the unique ability to keep the right mindset, focus on the future, and try to have winning weeks rather than winning days. Even for the best NBA bettors, you are going to have some losing days.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Basketball picksNovember 29, 2012

In the early part of the year, will want to think about matchups as you make your college basketball picks. When you make those picks, style of play is very important. There are some teams that just do not match up well with other teams. Two things to think about is transition defense and offensive rebounding. Teams that do not have a lot of speed and athleticism will often struggle to get back on defense and prevent easy points. Teams that do not protect the boards will struggle against those teams that crash them very hard.

Transition points can shift a game a lot for a person who makes college basketball picks. If one team is full of guys who are either unable or unwilling to get back, that team will give up too many layups. In the early part of the year, teams can exploit these differences. This is something that you will want to think about when you look at each individual matchup in the college basketball setting. Style of play may not be the most important factor, but it is something that you absolutely cannot ignore.

You will also want to think about offensive rebounding. When one team is unable to keep another off of the offensive boards, they are two problems. First, they give up too many extra possessions. In addition to that, these teams will often get into foul trouble in trying to keep teams off of the boards a little bit. As you make your college basketball picks, avoid taking those teams that have these problems when they play very athletic front courts. This can lead to a very difficult situation from a college basketball betting standpoint.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksNovember 27, 2012

Not-So-Sweet Revenge During CFB Bowl Season

I thought that I would serve-up a change of pace for today’s newsletter. The college football season is winding down with the Bowl season not far behind.

Revenge is often considered a great motivational tool for coaches, and an opportunity for players to get another shot at a team that took them down the last meeting between the clubs.

It may be a good motivator, but it is far from fool-proof. When we examine the situation, we find surprisingly that revenge backfires during the Bowl season in a big way under the right set of circumstances. So what are those circumstances, and what are the results?

What we want is a Bowl team playing with revenge, but not just any revenge – a revenge for a big loss. A big loss for the purposes of this system is having lost to their opponent by 24 or more points in their previous meeting.

We also want our revenging team to look like a team that is ready to exact their desired revenge, so we want them off a big win by more than 10 points.

That makes our revenging team looking like a prime candidate: They are playing well, they just won big, and are ready to get a dish best served cold.

We also don’t want them getting too many points here, which for the most part, coming off a good game will take care of. We want them at less than a +6-point dog or favorite of any number.

These revenging teams have fallen flat as a pancake in Bowl games with a record of 2-15 ATS, covering just 11.8% of the time.

While this situation doesn’t come up too often, it is a powerful tool to look at if it does this Bowl season.

CBB: The UNDER is 9-1 in Bowling Green’s last 10 home games.

A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I dont necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped.


Football picksNovember 25, 2012

Atlanta heads down to the Sunshine State for a game that might determine the rest of their season. As all people making NFL picks should know, the Falcons charged out of the gates this year. They beat up on everyone on their way to a 7-0 start. Then something bad happened. They went on the road and dropped a game in New Orleans. Last week, Matt Ryan threw five interceptions against a tough Arizona secondary. Though the Falcons found a way to win that game, they cannot feel great about themselves heading into this one. They have to go on the road as a one point favorite against a good Tampa Bay team.

Tampa trailed by 11 points last week with just over four minutes to play. They hit a long field goal before getting a huge stop against the Panthers. They then went the length of the field to score and also got the two point conversion. They took the kickoff in overtime and drove the length of the field to get a Dallas Clark touchdown. So can they carry that momentum into this game? Behind that win was a very ugly 56 minutes. Though Tampa pulled out the win, they did not look good for most of the contest. This is something that might concern you as you make your NFL picks this weekend.

This game will come down to whether the Tampa Bay defense can get after Matt Ryan. When he has the time that he needs, Ryan is very good at putting the ball down the field. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Ryan has not had that amount of time in some of his recent games. The running game has also struggled, allowing defenses to tee off on the passing game in some spots. If the Falcons cannot protect Matt Ryan this week, they will not win this game. If they can give him time, then they might just keep their winning ways for another week.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksNovember 25, 2012

For people making NFL picks today, the Packers at the Giants has to be one of the most popular games on the board. It pits two teams that many people feel are the class of the conference. After Chicago looked very vulnerable on Monday Night Football, Green Bay has a chance to slide in there to take control of the NFC Central. If they are going to do that, though, they will need to beat a tough New York team. Green Bay comes into this game as a less than field goal underdog, so people making NFL picks should be aware of that when they make their picks.

What does Green Bay bring to this game? They bring an offense that has looked pretty good in recent weeks. Aaron Rodgers finally looks like himself again. In addition to that, the defense has shown some signs of waking up. One week ago, the Packers went to Detroit and beat up on a good Lions team at Ford Field. This might just serve notice to the rest of the league. When making your NFL picks, you might also want to remember that Green Bay plays up to its competition. Think back a couple of months and you will remember Green Bay beating both Chicago and Houston – two of the teams that many people expect to make it to New Orleans for the Superbowl.

But what about the Giants? They are favored in this game for a reason. When they have been good, the Giants have been almost impossible to beat. The problem for Giants backers is that they have played some of their worst football at home this year. Eli Manning has been very up and down. Do they have what it takes to win, as a favorite, against a team that probably has more talent? This is a game that will ultimately come down to big plays. Both teams have the ability to stretch the field. A key turnover here or there might end up turning the tide at the end of this one.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksNovember 18, 2012

Don’t look now, but the Green Bay Packers have decided that it is time to play good football. After struggling to start the year, the Packers have turned it on. Though they are flying under the radar at the current time, the Packers have beaten the two teams that many consider Superbowl favorites – Chicago and Houston. Aaron Rodgers looks more like himself these days, too. This week, they are small favorites on the road at Detroit, where the Lions have quietly put themselves back into playoff contention. As you make your NFL picks this week, you will want to focus on this game, as it should be a really good one.

Green Bay has shown the ability to win on the road and they always play well in domed stadiums, too. These are a couple of the reasons why many people think they will walk into Detroit and come away with a win. People who make NFL picks will know that Green Bay is a three-point favorite in this one. Last year, they went into Detroit on Thanksgiving and pulled out a win. This year the game comes one week earlier, but the Packers will be looking for a similar result. Some might say that they lack the firepower that they had last season. Aaron Rodgers and company look to be finally putting things together, though.

On the Detroit end, the last few weeks have seen something of a resurgence. The Lions and Matt Stafford are playing good football. They are getting good production out of an unlikely star in the backfield. Perhaps most importantly, Calvin Johnson looks like himself once again. They look like a team that might just be ready to take a step forward. Standing in their way, though, is a hungry bunch from Green Bay. Can the Lions pull off the upset this week? They will only do it if they get a number of good breaks. This has a chance to be one of the best games of the weekend, though.


Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


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