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Thursday, October 4th, 2012


Football picksOctober 4, 2012

Blockbuster CFB Situation

The sports betting world is comprised of an infinite number of situations that opposing teams face on a weekly basis. They often add great insights as a tool to our handicapping arsenal, and this one has been mighty potent over the years.

Here in Morning Coffee, I share the good stuff! Below I present a situation that is 67% ATS. And we’re not talking a small sample size here of 25, 50, or even 100 games in the database – this one has close to 200.

What happens when a pair of teams that are both off conference wins get together to battle? If the game features a road dog coming out with a TD or less win in their previous game and the home favorite is off a double-digit conference win, we have a great opportunity at hand.

I often like to go with underdogs, but in this situation, the road dog gets hammered! The record shows 106-170-4 ATS since 1980. That is a cover rate of just 38.4% on over 280 games played. They are indeed in a bad situation.

If they are matched-up once again with a conference opponent they fall to 86-148-3 ATS for a 36.7% ATS as a cover rate.

One of the key variables here is the fact that this week’s underdog was off a rugged conference game, winning by a TD or less. That means that the final outcome was not secure until the final whistle. It also indicates that they likely spent a lot of physical and emotional energy to get the win, while their opponent this week is on easy street, having coasting to a double-digit win last week.

So what if we added another hardship for the weary road dog? If they are playing on six or fewer days of rest, we then see them go 69-132-2 ATS for a cover rate that has now dwindled to 34.3%. Those results are with over 200 games played.

We can add one more element and make sure the line is no more than +27. We don’t want this one to be on the extreme end of the line. That leaves us with 62-125-1 ATS for a cover rate of 33.2%.

Our final situation reads as follows: Play against a conference road dog of less than +28 that is playing on less than seven days of rest and are off a conference win of 7 points or less, if they are facing a conference opponent that is off a conference win of 10 or more points.

In the end you can play this any way you want from the original premise of 106-170-4, or with the added (logical) filters that end at 62-125-1.

This week there is one team that fits the formula all the way to the 62-125-1 ATS situation. The system says to play against the Georgia Bulldogs. This situation shows the road dog at 7-28 ATS over the last five years, including 1-8 ATS last year. This is the first play of this kind so far this season.

 

TREND OF THE DAY
CFB: Central Florida is 40-17-2 to the UNDER in their last 59 played on grass.

 

A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I dont necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped.

 

Football picksOctober 4, 2012

Big games have returned to the Swamp, as Florida hosts LSU this week in another SEC clash. This is a huge game for both teams, as Florida wants to prove that it’s back, while LSU wants to prove that it still belongs in the upper echelon nationally. The questions marks abound in this game, with LSU needing to show something that it’s rarely shown this season. The Tigers have mostly struggled against sub-par competition. Now, they will step up a class against a good Florida team who comes in as a less than field goal underdog.

LSU has been on the road once this season, filing away an unimpressive performance where they nearly lost to an average Auburn team. They scored twelve points in that one against an Auburn club that had been torched by Clemson, Mississippi State, and Louisiana-Monroe in the preceding weeks. This brings up some major questions about what LSU has on offense. New QB Zach Mettenberger struggled to get things going through the air. The line was weak, too, as LSU couldn’t really run the football the way it normally does.

Florida, on the other hand, is battle tested. Earlier this season, it got big SEC road wins back to back. The Gators first went to Texas A&M in front of a tough crowd and a pulled out a hard, comeback victory. They then went into Tennessee for a night game and outgained the Vols by more than 200 yards. Texas A&M has since punished all teams on its schedule, showing that the Florida win might have been better than anyone could have expected. What does this mean? It means that perhaps Florida’s defense and running game are for real. It means that the Gators might be the better team on the field when LSU comes calling.

Florida has had a bye, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game. The Gators are looking to keep up the ball-hawking defense in an effort to force LSU into costly turnovers. The crowd is sure to be loud, and this is a game that the Gators might just run away with. The betting public has favored LSU slightly, but the line has not moved up. This might be an indication that Florida is the right side here. If they play their best, LSU will need a very good performance to come away with a win.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “

 

Football picksOctober 4, 2012

Week six of the college football season brings a bunch of really good games. One of those games will take place in Columbia, South Carolina, where the Gamecocks and Georgia Bulldogs battle for a place atop the SEC East. This game is typically close, as both teams generally come in with the same talent level. Georgia comes to this game with a great offense, but some question marks on defense. South Carolina has the opposite problem, as its defense is great and its offense has been questionable at times. The oddsmakers have made South Carolina a very slight favorite in this game.

South Carolina comes into this battle as the six ranked team in the country and as a one or two point favorite, depending upon where you make your bets. When you look at this game, you see a South Carolina running game that should be able to poke some holes in Georgia’s front. You also see a South Carolina passing game that has had its good moments this season. In fact, QB Connor Shaw was the best thing going in the South Carolina win over Missouri earlier this month. He will need to be sharp again if the Gamecocks are going to win this game.

Georgia has been able to move the ball against everyone so far. The team has really not been tested, though. They just won at home against Tennessee in a game that probably should not have been so close. They did go to Missouri for a night game, so perhaps that could be considered something of a challenge. Beyond that, the Dogs have been beating up on poor competition. They have consistently put up big numbers both through the air and on the ground, where running back Todd Gurley has looked like the real deal. They will need to prove that they can produce against a good defense.

South Carolina looked rough one week ago at Kentucky. They looked past the Wildcats in the first half and had to engineer a comeback to get the win. They will look better at home, with the strength of a good night crowd helping them. This game will come down to how Georgia QB Aaron Murray can handle the South Carolina pressure. One year ago, he gave away the game with turnovers when Georgia should have easily beaten South Carolina. They will get a chance at redemption on Saturday night.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat