Wednesday, September 26th, 2012


Baseball picksSeptember 26, 2012

September Baseball and Spot Starters

Today we look at September spot starters. Often late in the season there are doubleheaders piling up, and teams use spot starters to fill-in the rotation. We also see teams that have clinched their division set their rotation, so a pitcher may not pitch in normal rotation, but maybe after five or more days of rest.

So let’s take a look at these impact on their performance as a home favorite. Over 50% of all MLB regular season games have a closing posted total of 8, 8.5, or 9. Out of the 18,344 games played in the last nine years, over half were in this total range of 8 to 9. We will focus us in this area and you will see why.

We want to examine a home favorite that is starting a pitcher out of rotation on five, six, or seven day’s rest. In other words, out of the standard four days of rest the road team. Fading all of these teams (at all totals) in September has netted a record of 138-161 to an average line of +139 for a hefty 8.8% return on investment when playing on the road dog with a starter on normal four days rest.

Now remember the so called “average” game, with totals of 8, 8.5, or 9? If we focus on the “normal” here, and only play against home favorites with spot starters in these games, we find gold.

Play against a home favorite with a starting pitcher on five, six, or seven days of rest if the total is 8, 8.5 or 9 (road starter on normal four days rest): 72-74 (avg. line of +136) for +17.6% ROI.

This system has basically identified a 50/50 proposition with 1.36-1 odds. Not a bad way to wind down your baseball regular season.

 

TREND OF THE DAY:
The Kansas City Royals are 9-0 in Guthrie’s last nine starts.

 

A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I dont necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped.

 

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “