Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

Football picksSeptember 12, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week Three CFB

Yesterday we took an early peek at week two in the NFL. Today we move to the college gridiron to take an early glimpse at CFB week three.

First, let’s take a look from the home team perspective.

2-0 home team vs. 2-0 road team
HOME DOG: 22-19

0-2 home team vs. 0-2 road team

1-1 home team vs. 1-1 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 44-60-1****
HOME DOG: 23-18-1

1-1 home team vs. 0-2 road team
HOME DOG: 3-6-1

1-1 home team vs. 2-0 road team
HOME DOG: 39-41-2

2-0 home team vs. 1-1 road team
HOME DOG: 11-8

2-0 home team vs. 0-2 road team
HOME FAVORITE: 34-16****

Judging by the above, we can immediately see two areas of interest: 2-0 home favorites vs. 0-2 road teams are 34-16 ATS (68%), and are 32-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

This week’s teams: LSU, UCLA.

Also we see that 1-1 home favorites vs. 1-1 road teams are 44-60-1 ATS.

So how are these teams if they are off a good defensive game, allowing 24 points or less?
They are 38-21 ATS, and if the line is from +2 to +14, they are 25-4 ATS for 86.2%!

This week’s teams: Bowling Green, Colorado State.

There you have an early look of CFB week three. I think there is a gem or two to be found here.


The San Diego Padres are now 20-6 in their last 26 home games, as well as 17-4 in their last 21 to a total of 7 to 8.5.

A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I don’t necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped


Football picksSeptember 12, 2012

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Auburn Tigers Game Predictions & Betting Odds


Louisiana-Monroe shocked the world one week ago, knocking off a previously top-10 Arkansas team on the road. The Warhawks looked good in the process, running and passing with a huge amount of proficiency. They also got a good defensive effort and came up with clutch plays when they needed them the most. After being the big story last week, can the Warhawks bring another top effort on the road against an SEC foe? That is a major question that will need to be answered by any person trying to make a prediction on this game.


Monroe beat Arkansas in part with its timely passing attack. This is something that might spell trouble for Auburn, since the Tigers struggle to slow down Clemson and Mississippi State in the air. The Tigers will need to find something a little bit better if they are going to run away from a Monroe team that wants to prove it was not simply a flash in the pan. All signs point to Auburn bouncing back in this game, but that is certainly not a foregone conclusion at this point in time.


Auburn struggled mightily in weeks one and two against a good Clemson team and an above average Mississippi State team. It is worth noting that they went on the road to play the Bulldogs and they had to play Clemson on a neutral field to start the season. Like most teams, the Auburn Tigers are much better when they play in front of the home fans. This is a game where they have their backs against the wall, as well, which could bring out the best in them. With all of the talent that Auburn puts on the field, it is hard to imagine them starting the season with three straight losses.


The big question to be answered here is how well the Warhawks can handle success. Coming off of a huge emotional high, can they focus on the task at hand in week three? Can they repeat the great performance of last week? Will Auburn finally play up to its talent level? With the Tigers coming home for this game, there is a good chance that they will bring a much better effort. Whether it will be enough for a comfortable win depends upon a number of very important factors.


Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksSeptember 12, 2012

One of the most interesting games on the schedule in week three will not come until late at night. Texas is trying out its SEC legs, facing a Mississippi team that has improved by a decent margin. This is the kind of game that some have feared we will not see with conferences adding more teams to their own mix. The Longhorns will make the trip with a bunch of rabid fans to enjoy the Grove and a game against a tough Rebels team. This game has the potential to be a very good one.

Texas is the bell cow here as they come in as the ranked team. The Longhorns are 2-0 after beating up on Wyoming and New Mexico in the first two weeks. Though the scores in those games looked lopsided, the Longhorns struggled to find continuity. They had a hard time on defense against both teams, as Wyoming ripped them through the air and New Mexico found success on the ground. Texas also struggled to score early in both games. Eventually, though, the Longhorns got their running game going, with Malcolm Brown again leading the way.


Ole Miss is an interesting team in 2012. Armed with a new coach, a new quarterback, and a new energy, the Rebels look poised to make a little bit of noise in the difficult SEC West. They have averaged around 500 yards per game on offense in the first two weeks. If that kind of production does not scare you, then you aren’t paying attention. The Rebels have an inventive playbook that is going to be difficult for Texas to stop. They are also somewhat tested – at least more so than Texas – as they knocked off a UTEP team that played a tough game with Oklahoma.


What will happen in this one? It will all come down to how well Ole Miss is able to contain the Texas run game. There is no doubt that Ole Miss will move the ball. Texas is going to have to score points to stay out ahead of the Rebels. With the tough night crowd giving Ole Miss a boost, the Longhorns might be in for a much tougher fight than they ever anticipated. That is going to be the big thing to watch when the Horns head down to Oxford for this clash.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Football picksSeptember 12, 2012

Wake Forest began the 2012 season with a massive struggle. They Demon Deacons nearly lost their opener to a bad Liberty team. They followed that up with a nice win at home against an overrated North Carolina squad. This week, the challenge gets much tougher. Rather than playing the typical early season scrubs, the Demon Deacons will head to Tallahassee for a game against one of the best teams in the ACC. They will tangle with a Florida State club that they happened to beat one season ago. Whether or not they do it this year will depend upon the Florida State team that shows up.

Florida State has yet to play a team with a pulse. They took on Murray State in week one, drilling to Racers in a big way. Last week, the Noles took down Savannah State in a game that featured the highest line in the history of Las Vegas. Had weather not shortened that game, the Noles would have covered there. When they face Wake Forest, they will be taking a step up in class, too. Though it might seem like Florida State should run away with this game, Wake Forest has given the Noles a lot of trouble over the last decade.


One year ago, Florida State was emotionally drained after tough losses to Oklahoma and Clemson. They went on the road to tangle with Wake in a game that they just didn’t care enough about. As tends to be the case when a team doesn’t bring its best mindset, the Noles got blown out of the building. This season, Florida State should be focused. They are at home with revenge on their mind. The only thing that might present a challenge is the looming matchup with Clemson that will happen in Tallahassee next week.

Florida State has an elite defense that can stop both the pass and the run. Wake Forest has an experienced quarterback and a surprising amount of skill on the outside. The difference in this game will likely be in the trenches. The Noles have a lot of muscle down there that will help them take control of this game. If they can get after Tanner Price early and often, Florida State will have an easy time in this game. If they fail to do that, the Noles might be in for a fight at the end of the day.

Posted by Wunderdo’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “