Sports Betting and the theoretical edge
When it comes to sports betting & sports picks, there is one very important term that you have to have in mind. That term is theoretical edge. Every single bet that you make should have some basis in value. That means that if you were to make that bet 100 times, you might win 55 or 56 of those bets. This means that you have an edge and it means that you will make a profit over the long haul. So how do you know if you have an edge? This is something that is much too complicated to discuss in 200 words, but you have to have some statistical basis for your reasoning.
You need to have some sort of model that produces results. The model needs to be tested against the results in other seasons. The model is simply your way of adding value to all of your bets. This means that you will be making bets that are likely to produce winning results. It is true that no person is going to win every single time. The idea, at the end of the day, is to win more than you lose. This is where your theoretical edge comes in play.
Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “
I received this question via email today:
I just saw odds on the LA clippers(up 3-1) to win series at: -360
Just wondered if you thought that was a good price/bet? Seems hard to come back from down 3-1, but we both know stranger things have happened 🙂
I thought I’d share my response with everyone:
Marc, you are definitely on to something. There isn’t much worse for an NBA playoff team than facing a 3-1 deficit. The only thing worse is facing a 3-0 hole. How bad is it for teams down 3-1?
Fading the public in sports betting
One thing that many people like to do in order to win in sports betting & sports picks has to do with the public. They like to look at who the public is betting on. From there, they like to “fade” the public. This means blindly betting against the team that the public likes in that game. Is this a good strategy for you to engage in? On its own, this is not a good way to bet. When you are using other factors, though, using this strategy can help to put your bets over the top.
You should always try to figure out which side is the public side. When you do this, you will be able to see where the books might want you to bet. When you fade the public in sports betting, you are getting on the side of the sports books. You should know, however, that the public wins sometimes. They sometimes will win those highly square bets. Don’t think that you can become a millionaire by simply betting against the public. It takes more skill than that to come away with a winning season.
Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “
Wrigley Field in Chicago is one of the most storied venues in all of Major League Baseball. It also has a unique impact on MLB betting. The problem with Wrigley Field is that it can play like two completely different animals. On some days, Wrigley plays like the best pitcher’s park in the league. This occurs when the strong winds are gusting in off of the lake. On other days, the wind will be blowing out. On these days, Wrigley can play like the biggest hitter’s park in the history of the game. If you are going to do well with MLB betting & baseball picks, you will need to check the weather report on Wrigley.
The sports books out there will usually withhold their lines on Chicago games until the weather reports are out. They understand that the wind can have a four or five run impact on the total. The winds also impact the side, as pitchers who give up fly balls will be doomed when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. If you spend a bit of time looking over the weather reports, you can do well on MLB betting with Cubs games.
Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “
One of the fundamentals of MLB betting & MLB picks is that starting pitching is very important. In Major League Baseball, no one player has a bigger impact on the game than the pitcher. A good pitcher can lead a bad team to a win over a bad pitcher on a good team. This means that you need to analyze the starting pitching above all else. This is what will help you get ahead with your MLB betting. Learn the things that matter when it comes to starting pitching analysis.
So what things make good pitchers? You need to look to strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate, and home run rate. These are four stats that tend to be predictive going forward. A player can get lucky and avoid earned runs for a few innings. Pitchers who strike guys out, avoid walks, and keep the ball on the ground are going to sustain their performance into the future. These are the guys who are going to be good bets going forward. Try to look for these types of pitchers as you move forward with your MLB betting approach.
In the early part of the year, there are some special challenges associated with MLB betting. One of the issues has to do with hitters being ahead of pitchers. It can take pitchers longer to find their stuff or find their velocity. This often means that pitchers will struggle to get guys out in the early part of the year. This will begin to change as the year moves along. You should be thinking about taking advantage of some totals early in the year if you are looking to make a good profit.
Another thing that you need to think about early in the year is the lack of information. Too many people view stats without the proper context. They try to draw MLB betting conclusions from a couple of games of data. This is a poor idea and will leave you in a world of hurt. If you are going to be successful with your MLB betting, you need to only use large sample sizes of data. Don’t overreact to a bad couple of weeks for a player. Try to look at the body of a pitcher’s work when analyzing who you are going to pick.
Posted by Wunderdog’s trust sidekick ” Wundercat “