Thursday, May 17th, 2012


Sports picksMay 17, 2012

Being alright with losing

So you want to be a “real” sports bettor? You need to become ok with losing every so often. Too many people get caught up with trying to win all of the time. They feel as if they have to win every bet. This is why they bet parlays, teasers, and others things of that nature. The truth of the matter is that it is natural to lose when you are betting & making sports picks. Even the best bettors will flop occasionally. It is when you become emotionally stable with losing, you will be on the road to much more success. This is a hard barrier to cross psychologically, though.

When you learn to live with losing, you can put away a bad day. You can do yourself a sports betting favor in this way. People who try to make all of their losses back at the end of a bad day will often lose even more. You have to know that there will be more sports betting tomorrow. You don’t have to make poor bets in order to get all of your profits back the same day. You need to view your sports betting in terms of weekly, monthly, and seasonal profits. If you can come out ahead at these important junctures, then you will be good at the end of the year.

 

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “

 

Sports picksMay 17, 2012

Sports Betting and the theoretical edge

When it comes to sports betting & sports picks, there is one very important term that you have to have in mind. That term is theoretical edge. Every single bet that you make should have some basis in value. That means that if you were to make that bet 100 times, you might win 55 or 56 of those bets. This means that you have an edge and it means that you will make a profit over the long haul. So how do you know if you have an edge? This is something that is much too complicated to discuss in 200 words, but you have to have some statistical basis for your reasoning.

You need to have some sort of model that produces results. The model needs to be tested against the results in other seasons. The model is simply your way of adding value to all of your bets. This means that you will be making bets that are likely to produce winning results. It is true that no person is going to win every single time. The idea, at the end of the day, is to win more than you lose. This is where your theoretical edge comes in play.

 

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “