February 2012

Sports picksFebruary 27, 2012

How much of a bet is too much of a bet?

So you want success with sports betting & sports picks? You need to know not only who to bet, but how much to bet. There are lots of different thoughts on this. Most of them depend upon how much of an edge you have. If you have a big edge, then you make a big bet. The problem with this is that you can’t hardly know what your exact edge is. This is why it is important to be conservative in your bets. The more conservative the better, because you won’t go broke this way.

Ultimately some people are better off with a flat betting system. Why is this the case? It is because most people don’t have the ability to emotionally handle bet sizing. If they start changing their bet sizes, they are tempted to up it too much when they lose. You need to turn it into a thing where you want to win more than you lose. You want to go 2-1. The money shouldn’t be that important. Just hitting more than you lose has to be the goal. When you go with flat bet sizing, you’ll be better off in most instances.


Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Basketball picksFebruary 24, 2012

Short road favorites

There is one classification of teams in college basketball that should draw your critical eye. That class of teams are road favorites. Short road favorites are especially difficult. Here is why. Those teams are generally viewed by the betting public as being superior to the underdog. They are only a short favorite and everyone simply counts free throws at the end of the game as a given. That will cover any spread under 10, right? The fact of the matter is that free throws, more often than not, will not win the game for you in NCAA picks. You need to have the spread covered before free throws come into play. 

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Home dogs are tough in college hoops. They play hard. They have the crowd on their side. They are just undervalued. You might not feel like you are getting a lot of value by betting Iowa +4 at home against Indiana, but know that there is a lot of value in these types of games. It takes a keen eye to look at the situation and find that value, but you have to know that it is there. The sooner you recognize this, the better off you will be with your college basketball picks. 

Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat ”



Basketball picksFebruary 23, 2012

Pace of Play in the NBA

If you are serious about being a strong NBA bettor & making NBA picks, then you need to understand a few things. One of those things is pace of play. It is incredibly important to note this whether you are betting on totals or betting on point spreads. Many people understand that pace of play impacts the total betting, but many of these people fail to go a step further. They fail to understand how pace of play can impact the game itself. At the end of the day, the game is played between two teams. And those two teams have to match up in some way.

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Many NBA games are a battle of will. One team tries to impose its will on the other. Another team tries to impose a slow pace on a fast-paced team. Who will win the battle? That is the big question that will determine the outcome much of the time. You need to look back and see how pace of play has played out in previous games. How does that fast-paced team fare when it goes up against the slower paced club? If you can answer these questions, then your NBA betting will have much more success. You will be able to spot value and that is what it is all about at the end of the day.


Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Sports picksFebruary 21, 2012

To moneyline or take the points?

For many individuals, one of the most difficult questions is whether to take the points or just hit the moneyline. For instance, your team is a 2.5 point underdog in a football game, so shouldn’t you just take the moneyline? Those points won’t come into play most of the time. Though it is true that the points won’t come into play in a majority of bets, there isn’t always great value in the moneyline. In games where the spread is so low, it’s expected that the game will be very close. Having a couple of points on your side at the end of the game can make a major difference.

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The big point is about greed. You have to check yourself so that you don’t get greedy with these kinds of  sports picks. Ultimately the goal is just to win. You want to keep adding money to your bankroll. If you get greedy and try to hit moneylines, then you will watch a correctly handicapped game turn into a loser on many occasions. Just take the points and you won’t have to worry about this.


Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


Basketball picksFebruary 17, 2012

If you have been around the sports betting game for a while, then you know about futures bets. What’s the upside here? Well, you can have the potential for a big payout. The downside is that your money is locked up for a significant amount of time if you bet a future. Are they good plays? And what should a smart sports bettor do with futures bets & sports picks?

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A smart sports bettor will understand that futures are a good chance to take a position on a game. Just because you put down a futures bet doesn’t mean that you have to ride it out. If you see a line that you like, then there’s a good chance to jump on it right now. For instance, if you think a team has a good chance of winning the NCAA basketball tournament, and you can get them at 75 to 1, then you need to jump on it. Then, when they get to the Sweet 16, you can either sell the ticket to someone for a profit or you can begin to hedge your free sports picks.


Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat ”


This is a very strong approach that can lead to good profits. This is one way to bet futures while giving yourself a chance at a smaller, more frequent payout.


Basketball picksFebruary 16, 2012

Suspicious Line Moves in the NBA

The NBA is one of those leagues where one little bit of news can play a big role. When only a few players have such a big impact on the outcome of a game, you really need to know what is going on with each game. For this reason, you also need to look out for suspicious line movements. There are often times when lines move in a way that doesn’t seem right to you. They move contrary to the betting. So what do you make of this? It might mean that a team is planning on resting a key player. It might be an injury that you aren’t aware of.

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The best approach is to question everything. When you see a strange move, you need to think before you bet. What am I missing here? Is there some piece of information that I haven’t even seen yet? You don’t want to bet into a bad line thinking that you are getting a value. Always let that line move spark something in your mind. Look a little bit further and harder to see where there might be some hidden information. This will greatly improve your success rates with NBA picks.


Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “


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