Saturday, June 18th, 2011

Football picksJune 18, 2011

NFL Betting and “Value”

There is one important thing NFL betting and it’s “value”. Some people make NFL picks without even thinking about this important idea and they are, quite often, sunk. You have to know what value is and you have to know how to identify it when you make your NFL picks. If you can do this, then you will find success more often than not. You will certainly find success in your long-term NFL betting and that is the most important thing. How you do in one day or two days is not nearly as important as how you do over the long haul.

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When looking for value, your goal should always be to identify teams that are underrated by the betting public. Is there a reason why this team’s true talent level is higher than the public perceives it? Perhaps they have gone on a losing streak? Perhaps they have certain players who are undervalued? Maybe they are playing a team that is a public favorite that week? These are all good things to consider when making your free NFL picks, so you need to think about them before you finish your NFL betting. This is the only way to truly win over the long haul.


Posted By Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat ”



Football picksJune 18, 2011

NFL Betting and the Packers

As you complete your NFL picks preparation this year, you will need to consider the case of the Green Bay Packers. Always an NFL fan favorite, the Packers are in an interesting position this year. They’ve won it all, so that makes them a bit of an NFL betting problem for 2011. The problem is that they will be overvalued pretty much all season. When a team wins a championship, people subconsciously overvalue them the next year. The books know this, so they shade the games of those teams a little bit more than they otherwise would. This means that when you make NFL picks on the Packers, you will be seeing bad lines pretty much all year.


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This does not means that you have to avoid making free NFL picks on the Packers all year. Much to the contrary, there will be plenty of times when making NFL picks on the Packers is the smart move. You should recognize these spots and take advantage of them. As a general rule, though, betting the Packers in 2011 will be negative expected value. If you realize this early on, then your NFL betting numbers will a lot better in review at the end of the season.

Posted By Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “