Tuesday, May 31st, 2011

Basketball picksMay 31, 2011

After the Heat defeated the top-seeded Bulls last Thursday to claim the East, a rematch of the 2006 Finals was set: Dallas vs. Miami. In that memorable series, the Mavericks had a commanding 2-0 lead and 13-point lead late in the fourth quarter of game 3. Yet, they choked away both leads and lost the series, giving Dwayne Wade his first title. What will happen this time around?

Dallas is a damn good team: If you remove the games in which either Dirk Nowitski or Tyson Chandler were out, Dallas owns a 64-16 record (54-23-3 ATS)! So with those two in the lineup, based on record, there is no better team in the NBA. And, they are 12-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs. There has been tremendous value on Dallas early on in the playffs because people view this as the “old” under-performing Dallas Mavericks. The public remembered this as the 2006 “choke” team. This was the team with a super star that people just couldn’t respect (7 foot white guy that doesn’t bang down low). So there was great line value on Dallas early on. This is one reason I recommended taking the Mavs to win their series against the Lakers here.

The key word above, however, is “was.”  The perceptions have changed. Dirk is getting his due and the line value has probably gone. They are 2-2 ATS in their last four games and nearly two thirds of the public is on them in game 1.

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