Friday, March 26th, 2010

Basketball picksMarch 26, 2010

2010 Final 4 Picks, Predictions vs. the Spread

Rating the experience factor with Final 4 Picks and Predictions vs the Spread

Without a doubt, one of the most significant challenges for today’s bettors is figuring out how much value to give those “intangibles”. The reason they are called intangibles is that it’s difficult to calculate them exactly. These are things like fatigue, experience, and motivation. For the tournament, we need to look specifically at experience, since it is something that gets tossed around a lot for people making March Madness picks. Those who are sharp with their college basketball picks know that experience matters, but it might be a little bit overrated at this time of year. So how do you value it appropriately?

When all other things are equal, the Wundercat likes an experienced team. I wouldn’t go overboard betting on a team just because it’s full of seniors, though. Understand that with the way the college game works today, the players on these teams have all been involved in high level high school competition, AAU ball, and even some international ball on occasion. Even freshmen will have been through some wars, so they know all about playing in tough, close games. Nothing comes close to matching the NCAA tournament obviously, but don’t fade a team of freshmen just because they’re young. Talent beats experience most days, and don’t you ever forget it.

Still, if you can find a team with both talent and experience, that’s a heck of a combination. These teams will be seasoned and they’ll play smart basketball. Keep your eye out for them as you handicap the games, since this will give you a better chance to find good value. This is especially true if you are handicapping close games, where the expected margin will come down to a few points. That’s when poise will matter, and that’s when you can use it to your advantage.

Posted By : Wunderdog’s Trust Sidekick ” Wundercat “