Friday, March 12th, 2010

Basketball picksMarch 12, 2010


College Basketball Picks, NCAA Picks & March Madness Picks & Predictions

They’re just kids playing college basketball!

The Wundercat was recently at a college basketball game when I heard an interesting conversation in the row in front of me. One guy was berating his team’s power forward, talking about how the kid was terrible and how he might as well quit now. “He’s not worth a rat’s tail!” The talk of rats and mice piqued my interest, so I listened more. Another guy responded with a line that resonated with me. “They’re just kids,” he said.

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They’re just kids.

Since I tend to think of everything in terms of how it can help my handicapping, this was really no different. The difference in pro handicapping and college ‘capping is that you’re messing with kids who are young, immature, and impressionable. They have things like classes, girlfriends, grandfathers dying, and the common cold to worry about. While pro players might be able to shoot 1000 shots per day, every day, a college kid doesn’t have that luxury. This pushed me to start thinking about the psychological side of the game a little bit more.

We all know that in college basketball, road teams struggle in a big way. It makes sense, too, because they can get frustrated in a tough environment and this can compound any problems they might already be having. What this means for bettors is that you need to think about properly valuating these things when you do your handicapping.

Don’t forget about how fatigue can really wreck a team. If they are coming into a game with a short turnaround, you might want to give a few points worth of weight to that. Most people don’t consider these things nearly enough. All of the numbers and statistical indicators won’t mean a thing in that particular game if a given team is not going to play like itself. When you understand the psychology of the matter, you can more easily pick out when this is going to happen.

Posted By Wunderdogs’s Trusty Sidekick ” Wundercat ” .


Basketball picksMarch 12, 2010


Momentum and your March Madness Picks & March Madness Predictions

Figuring out momentum is something that you have to do if you want to have a high level of success. Though it’s crazy to think about, there are times when guys play way over their heads in March. Teams put on epic performances and if you’re on the wrong side, it can sink your bankroll. There’s no reason why you have to be on the wrong side, though. If you are sharp, you will give momentum the proper amount of value and you will come away better for it.

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So how does Wundercat value momentum? I obviously like to ride those teams that are playing their best basketball heading into March, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into one loss in a conference tournament. Syracuse is a good example of a team that just got bounced from its conference tournament, but they’re still a good bet heading in the big one. Many bettors will lay off of them, but it might also be true that their small slip-ups down the stretch will bring about value in their lines.

With that being said, don’t make the huge mistake of playing a team that is obviously slumping. One loss might bring value in the line, but a team that’s been losing many games in a row is not one that you need to be backing. Confidence is huge in college basketball and when these teams lose their swagger, they can play a brand of basketball that’s just not pretty.

So what’s the point of all of this? Keep your basketball picks logical, and if you can find a magical wave to ride, do it. Don’t get into the habit of thinking that one bad loss down the stretch dooms a team, though. Momentum is important, but backing solid teams is still the prime directive with March Madness picks.

Posted By : Wunderdog’s Trusty Sidekick ” Wundercat ” .