NFL Game of the Month!


August 2008

Football picksAugust 8, 2008

I received this question from a long-time subscriber and thought I’d post my response to it for all to see:


Hi Dog,
Very nice pick last nite on balt – thank you!!!
Got your season O/U total wins picks and had a question –
do you think this would be a bad bet for somebody that is a very conservative player… i know you did not have a lean on GB (8) or Minn (8.5) but here goes……
bet them both over…. my thinking is that one of the two should win the division (they outshine bears and lions big time) and it is also very hard to win a division without winning at least 9 games…
so my point is – I feel one would have a very good chance of going 2-0, and very very little chance of going 0-2….  worst case IMHO would be 1-1…….. of course as always there could be injuries 🙁
since the over odds for GB and MINN are about -120: 1-1 would lose 20 (based on 120 to win 100 on each team) 2-0 would win 200…
essentially one is risking 20 to win 200 (assuming 0-2 does not happen) BOTH gb and minn would have to regress badly to not at least win one of the bets…..
does this make any sense?  sorry for the long explanation-any comments would be appreciated…


My Answer:

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