Spring Training Results Matter?
We are nearing the advent of another Major League Baseball regular season and some will have increased expectation because of the off-season moves that perhaps have made the team look improved. Expectations may also be evoked by a stellar spring training season a team is having, and it is hoped to carry forward into April when the games really count.
The question is do spring records count and offer a sign of what is to come? The cold hard truth? It means everything to the rookie trying to earn a spot on the 25-man roster. It means everything to the pitcher that had off-season surgery. It means everything for the career journeyman looking for a team to squeeze out yet another year. It unfortunately, means absolutely nothing for expectations for the coming year. It means a lot to those of us betting preseason baseball, building a bankroll for the regular season.
Spring results are just that, spring. Let’s take a look at some proof, and for those inspired by your team having a great spring, sorry! For those rooting for teams having a rough spring? There is still hope after all! The ’99 Kansas City Royals gave high hopes to their fans, as they had a stellar spring going 22-9. They ended up in disappointment as the Royals finished 64-97 in the regular season. Baltimore went 20-9 in the spring of ’02, only to finish 67-95. Detroit was the biggest disappointment of all in ’96 going 20-10 in the spring, but finishing just 53-109!
Teams that have had a bad spring, like the Yankees in ’01 may have had their fans a bit on edge, but finished at 95-65. The Braves in ’97 closed out the spring with a 10-18 mark, only to go on and win 101 games. The Giants in ’01 left camp with an abysmal 9-21 mark, but claimed 90 wins in the regular season.
The facts are pretty revealing. Teams that have outstanding springs over a 12-year period or so, have combined to win about 51% of their regular season games, and teams that have had horrible springs, also win about 51% of their games. The only lesson here, is that hope springs eternal, not the record of your team in the spring.