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Handicapping The Kentucky Derby - April 11, 2012This Saturday we'll feature the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby(G1) from Oaklawn Park one of the last major preps for the May 5th Kentucky Derby(G1). It will be part of a six race East Coast Racing Newsletter that afternoon. Today we have two races apiece from both Aqueduct & Tampa Bay downs. The Best Bet is #5 Morador Llers in Race #5 at Tampa Bay Downs. Tuesday's East Coast Results: With very few options today, we'll head to Oaklawn Park where we have selections & analysis on four races, including the $300,000 Fantasy Stakes(G2) for 3yo fillies. The high-priced event is part of the annual "Racing Festival of the South" which culminates on Saturday (the last day of the meet) with the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby(G1). Our "sheet" today begins with their fifth race with a scheduled post of 1:20 Pacific. Tuesday's West Coast Results:  Today's Picks: Top pick: #2 (WILD ALLEY CAT) - Gelding spent the first part of his career in the mid-Atlantic region before trainer Larry Allen brought him here at the start of this meet. 4yo by "Flower Alley" is (8-1-4-1) on this surface this season and last out finished 2nd at this level and price going 6 furlongs March 30th. In his previous effort he was a winner at this 7 furlong distance and is the horse to beat. 2nd pick: #4 (Victory Cat) - Another who came here from the mid-Atlantic area, he'll be racing for the 2nd time off a 7 month vacation. He ran evenly in his return start and has a solid work heading into this attempt. Think he can impact at a nice price. 3rd pick: #8 (Hope Defered) - He has some back class and runs 3rd back off an 80 day freshening in this spot. He showed some improvement here in his 2nd off the brief rest and can factor today if he takes another forward step. 4th pick: #6 (Sugar Peaks) - He threw in a "clunker" last out at this level, but 5yo had run well in three straight prior to that and this is his favorite distance(7-1-2-1). The faster the pace, the better his chances. Oaklawn Park Race #5 at 4:20 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (MOON DANCING) - He won his debut racing here Feb 23rd for $15K, then tired while racing wide in an allowance-optional $65K claimer March 16th in his first facing winners. The high percentage barn of Brad Cox drops him way down for this and he meets a weak field. 2nd pick: #4 (Inertia) - Recent maiden winner did so with a lucky break when the leader had to pull up. That said, she's well-bred, improving, is in a winning barn (Steve Asmussen), and finished 2nd to the top pick two back. 3rd pick: #1 (Indian Bluff) - Speedy sort was an easy wire to wire maiden winner here on March 1st. Arkie-bred by "Pine Bluff" is clearly getting better and her speed combined with her inside post makes her a threat. 4th pick: #2 (Madame Mistletoe) - Freshened-up since being eased Feb 3rd, trainer Tim Ice had her in good shape prior to that and this filly has early speed when in shape. Threat if ready off the 70 day vacation Horse Racing Picks Resources: Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-April-10-2012 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-10-2012 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-09-2012 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-09-2012 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-08-2012 |
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